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Russian TV sees revitalized GUAM as possible threat to CIS

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  • Russian TV sees revitalized GUAM as possible threat to CIS

    Russian TV sees revitalized GUAM as possible threat to CIS

    BBC Monitoring Service - United Kingdom; May 26, 2006

    Sources as listed,compiled in English 0001 gmt 26 May 06

    The GUAM summit which brought together the leaders of Georgia,
    Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova in Kiev on 23 May was generally seen
    by Russian TV channels as an attempt to revitalize the organization so
    it would become a Russia-free alternative to the Commonwealth of
    Independent States. Gazprom's NTV played down the threat to the CIS,
    while Moscow-government-owned Centre TV saw the renewed GUAM as
    potentially viable, particularly if plans for a Caspian-EU energy
    corridor came to fruition. State channel Rossiya (RTV) viewed the
    organization as a US-funded attempt to counterbalance Russia's
    influence in the former Soviet Union area.

    Although the Russian Foreign Ministry issued statements saying it did
    not view GUAM as an anti-Russian coalition, prime-time TV news reports
    on the summit generally took the view that an element of anti-Russian
    feeling was involved. NTV Segodnya news programme on 23 May raised
    concerns about the summit's pro-Western focus, but then played down
    the possibility the organization would pose a threat to the CIS.

    "In Kiev today there was criticism of the CIS and calls to move closer
    to NATO and the European Union", presenter Aleksey Pivovarov said. The
    ensuing report featured comments by Ukrainian President Viktor
    Yushchenko that full European integration was GUAM's main aim, while
    correspondent Roman Sobol cited a survey that showed that more than 60
    per cent of Kiev residents believed that GUAM was an anti-Russian
    organization.

    However, Sobol went on to say that the majority of those involved in
    the summit did not view the end of the CIS as imminent. "Although
    GUAM is called an alternative CIS, here they prefer somewhat less
    strident wording: not a replacement for the CIS but in parallel with
    the CIS," Sobol said, pointing out that only Georgian President
    Mikheil Saakashvili had categorically expressed a wish to leave the
    commonwealth.

    The report suggested that the four member states were fundamentally
    incompatible and hinted that this may well hinder the organization's
    progress. "The Georgian and Ukrainian president's are old friends and
    leaders of colour revolutions. But often the question arises: what
    links them to the Moldovan Communist Voronin and Azerbaijani leader
    Aliyev?" Sobol asked. Centre TV the same day also asked similar
    questions about the viability of GUAM, but was less quick to dismiss
    the possibility the organization could be successful.

    Introducing the report presenter Nikolay Petrov highlighted the
    fundamental differences between the GUAM member states. "GUAM is now
    called the Organization for Democracy and Economic Development. True,
    it is not entirely clear exactly what Communist Vladimir Voronin and
    crown prince Ilham Aliyev have to do with democracy," he said
    pointedly.

    Correspondent Aleksandr Ogorodnikov noted that "it seems shared
    grudges against Russia unite the four presidents more closely than
    their common goals", but added that Aliyev had made a point of
    stressing Azerbaijan's good relations with Russia. However,
    Ogorodnikov warned that if GUAM's proposed Caspian-EU energy corridor
    "which threatens to take the bread from Russia's mouth" became a
    reality, then conflict between Moscow and Baku would be unavoidable.

    Nevertheless, the report saw the energy plans and the agreements on
    creating of a free-trade zone as a good basis for the future of "GUAM
    mark-II", especially as it has US support. "So, GUAM, which nearly
    disintegrated six years ago, now seems to have a real chance of
    success," Ogorodnikov said. He went on to suggest that expansion to
    include Poland, Bulgaria, Romania and Lithuania might even be on the
    cards.

    RTV's Vesti on 23 May saw the plans for an energy corridor as the main
    aim of GUAM, which it suggested was nothing more than a US foreign
    policy tool.

    Presenter Mikhail Antonov introduced the report with claims that the
    organization was funded by the USA. "GUAM's main task is to create a
    counterbalance to the CIS and provide an energy corridor from the
    Caspian to Europe, bypassing Russia. The people who thought up this
    plan and are willing to finance it can only be found far beyond the
    boundaries of the former Soviet Union," he said. He added that because
    of this the abbreviation GUAM is particularly apt, as Guam is also the
    name of the American military base "from which the USA put political
    and military pressure on those it disliked".

    The ensuing video report featured comments by political analysts which
    supported this view of the USA's role. Mikhail Pogrebinskiy, director
    of the Kiev-based Centre for Policy and Conflict Research, described
    GUAM as "an instrument for implementing US policy in the former Soviet
    area". Director of the Political Research Institute Sergey Markov
    insisted that the organization was entirely dependent on US funds. In
    a fuller version of his comments, broadcast in the later Vesti Plyus
    bulletin, Markov described GUAM as an attempt "to shut the Russian
    bear up in its Siberian lair and isolate Russia from Europe".
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