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  • Who Is Trying To Split The CIS?

    WHO IS TRYING TO SPLIT THE CIS?
    by Roman Simakov
    Translated by Pavel Pushkin

    Source: Voenno-Promyshlennyi Kuryer, No. 20, May 2006, p. 2
    Agency WPS
    What the Papers Say Part A (Russia)
    June 1, 2006 Thursday

    The West doesn't want a rival in Eurasia

    Ill-wishers say that the CIS will soon disappear; It must be admitted
    that there are serious political disputes in the framework of the
    CIS. Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine - that is, the countries where
    overtly anti-Russian political elites hold power - are saying more
    and more often that they're prepared to quit the CIS.

    For several years now, certain circles with an interest in the matter
    have been saying that the days of the Commonwealth of Independent
    States (CIS) are numbered. In the light of recent events, this issue
    is once again being raised in various media outlets and some CIS
    countries. But the CIS, going through a reform phase, continues to
    exist and function effectively in various areas. One of the more
    robust areas that links most CIS countries is military cooperation.

    The latest confirmation of this is the fact that another meeting of
    the CIS defense ministers' council is being held in Baku, Azerbaijan,
    on May 31.

    The meeting plans to consider a number of very important issues. The
    defense ministers intend to confirm the basic areas of activity and
    measures for the CIS Military Cooperation Concept to 2010, and discuss
    the state of flight safety in the armed forces of CIS countries. They
    plan to reach agreement on documents required to establish a common
    (unified) military communications system for CIS countries. The
    defense ministers will also consider the performance of the Joint
    Peacekeeping Forces in the Abkhazian conflict zone.

    The question of next year's funding for the CIS Unified Air Defense
    System (UADS) will also be considered. A command-staff training
    exercise involving UADS management bodies and forces was concluded
    on April 25. The exercise involved air forces and air defense forces
    from eight CIS countries: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
    Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Ukraine.

    On the whole, military contacts within the CIS framework remain active
    - although not all countries are showing interest or initiative.

    What would replace the CIS?

    All the same, it must be admitted that there are serious political
    disputes in the framework of the CIS. Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine -
    that is, the countries where overtly anti-Russian political elites
    hold power - are saying more and more often that they're prepared to
    quit the CIS.

    On May 2, President Mikhail Saakashvili of Georgia instructed the
    government to consider the expediency of Georgia's continuing
    participation in the CIS and to present an accurate economic
    justification within the next two months. Vladimir Ogryzko, Senior
    Deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine, says that Ukraine doesn't receive
    real results from membership in the CIS. Similar statements are made
    periodically in Chisinau.

    Nonetheless, so far not a single one of these countries has dared
    to undertake the final withdrawal from the CIS. Why? The answer is
    obvious: political and economic losses from this action will be much
    bigger than received benefits. Moscow has already demonstrated that
    if necessary it can tighten up economic nuts. Russian government is
    considering liquidation of various preferences for some CIS member
    states because of the statements of their authorities about possible
    withdrawal from the CIS.

    Nonetheless, the "divorce" the strongest on people's masses who already
    experience hard times. It is necessary to bear in mind that Tbilisi,
    Chisinau and Kiev try to bargain and seek additional protection of
    those who lobby withdrawal of these countries from the CIS. It is
    clear for whom it is beneficial to finally break up what is left from
    the USSR: the West doesn't need a competitor in Eurasia.

    Integration could improve significantly the level of competitiveness
    of each of the 12 countries. For instance, Washington has already
    promised to compensate for the losses expected because of withdrawal
    from the CIS.

    Against this background Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova
    with assistance of overseas sponsors started working more actively in
    the framework of the so-called GUAM, an amorphous organization whose
    main task is economic cooperation in words and dilution of the CIS in
    deed. Experts state that no real economic basis has been created for
    GUAM and it will hardly appear in the near future. We would also like
    to say that the major part of disputes appearing in the framework of
    the CIS is exaggerated and invented according to prompts of Western
    puppeteers. Along with this, due to the obstacles appearing on this
    path some functions of the CIS went to new international organizations
    like the Collective Security Treaty Organization, Eurasian Economic
    Community and Common Economic Space. Cooperation in the framework
    of these organizations is gradually gaining scale in its specific
    directions and is already bringing certain fruits.

    Apsheron attracts

    It is symbolic that meeting of CIS defense ministers will be held
    in Baku. Lately, the Trans-Caucasus in general and Azerbaijan in
    particular has been acquiring special importance on the international
    geopolitical arena. First, this happens because the Trans-Caucasus
    is a key to the Caspian region rich with hydrocarbons. It is a good
    economic advantage and hence a reason for increased interest of the
    "omnipresent" US. Second, the region attracts attention of the West
    in the strategic aspect. Nobody has promised that sooner or later
    aggravation of the American-Iranian relations will not lead to a
    forceful action of Pentagon against Iran. In this case assistance of
    Azerbaijan would be very valuable. It's no coincidence that the US is
    already on its way to basing two radar stations in the republic. On
    the one hand, these stations will track operations of the Russian
    military base in Armenia. On the other hand, they will control the
    Caspian region and the territory of Iran. The official version of the
    radar stations construction is strengthening of border control. A year
    ago, it was rumored that an American military base would be deployed
    in Azerbaijan. Various sources mentioned at least three possible
    locations for the base, namely the Apsheron Peninsula, Lenkoran and
    military airfield Shirak not far from the Georgian-Azeri border.

    Against this background reports appeared in Azeri press in March with
    reference to the Institute of Radiation Problems of the National
    Academy of Sciences of Azerbaijan saying that due to work of the
    Russian information and analytical center Daryal (Gabalinskaya radar
    station) the level of electromagnetic radiation in the populated
    spots neighboring the station allegedly exceeded the norm by a
    few hundreds percents. When checked these stations proved to be
    ungrounded. According to the press service of the Russian Space Forces,
    such statements of representatives of Azeri public "unfortunately very
    often ignore results of real research and are at odds with facts." It
    is obvious that intentions to impose opinion about negative impact of
    the Russian radar station on environmental situation on Russian and
    Azeri public represent attempts to hinder development of Russian-Azeri
    relations. It is remarkable that Azeri experts have not turned to
    the Russian party officially with statements about any registered
    breaches although there is an agreement of Russia and Azerbaijan on
    joint conduction of monitoring.

    Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said, "The fact that the
    topic of ecology is often used for political goals primarily by
    nongovernmental organizations is no secret to anyone."

    Earlier, Baku did not support the Russian initiative about
    establishment of the tactical theater group of ships of the Caspian
    countries Casfor in the Caspian Sea. Along with this, Washington
    already started implementation of its project in the region for
    establishment of Caspian Guard for guarding of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
    oil pipeline and hydrocarbon resources of the Caspian Sea. It is
    known that for the US the Caspian region remains one of the most
    important lines of foreign policy as an alternative option for supply
    of hydrocarbons because the Persian Gulf area is very unstable. The
    Caspian region is also important for promotion of American interests
    to the east.

    Between Moscow and Washington

    Commenting on the recent official visit of Azeri President Ilkham
    Aliev to Washington, the official spokesperson for the US Department
    of State said that "Azerbaijan is an important country for the US."

    Along with this, Washington is prepared not only to pay money and
    to create a foreign policy protection but also to shut its eyes to
    breaches of democratic rights and liberties in the republic for a
    time being. For the US Azerbaijan is a tasty morsel also because
    political landscape in this country is diverse and unstable, which
    enables the US to manage the situation in its own interests through
    pressurizing of official Baku when necessary. The main factor of
    instability in Azerbaijan is the problem of territorial dispute
    between Baku and Yerevan. Struggle for democratic values may become
    such factor in the future. Incidentally, the US is already doing the
    relevant preparatory work.

    Lately, Russia has been trying to raise relations with Azerbaijan to
    a new level more actively. This is said in the joint statement of the
    presidents of the two countries signed in February in Baku. In this
    situation Azeri political elite tries to maneuver between Moscow and
    Washington bargaining about certain benefits for itself. Nonetheless,
    practice shows that sooner or later such "diplomacy" ends. As a rule,
    this happens exactly because of excessive appetite and pressure of
    overseas friends. On the contrary, cooperation with close neighbors
    seems to be the most promising, mutually beneficial and long-lasting.
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