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WELCOME UPWARD?
Hakob Badalyan
Lragir.am
19 June 06
The great American maneuvers are gathering momentum. While the Armenian
community was speaking about the recall of John Evans, the United
States took up the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, and replaced Stephen
Mann by Mathew Bryza. At first the rotation of the co-chair seems
to be determined by the aspiration of the United States to reach a
breakthrough in the settlement. It is interesting, however, why the
United States trusts the settlement of the conflict over Karabakh to
a State Department official, who deals with the energy sector. Either
Bryza's profile changed, or the United States is changing the profile
of the settlement of the conflict over Karabakh.
The latter seems to fit the political strategies of the United States
better, which is based on the energy infrastructures of the region.
And it is not surprising or strange. After all, what is the most
powerful weapon of Russia in the South Caucasus? Of course, the
"switch." Consequently, in order to undermine Russian influence the
United States needs to seize the switch from Russia or supply the
region from another switch. The United States has probably chosen
the second. It was not accidental that the United States was highly
interested in eliminating or relieving consequences, when the Russian
gas pipeline was blown up in January.
Even there was information that the United States mediated Azerbaijan
to supply gas not only to Georgia but also Armenia. This information,
by the way, was not refuted officially. Besides it is important that
during Ilham Aliyev's visit to the United States neither Iran nor
Karabakh was the primary issue. Bush's announcements during Aliyev's
visit were mostly on partnership in the sphere of energy. Hence, it is
not unexpected that an official specializing in energy is engaged in
the settlement of an ethnic confrontation. By the way, the "evolution"
of the OSCE Minsk Group American co-chairs displays the dominance of
energy-based moods of the United States in this process.
Rudolf Perina was replaced by Stephen Mann, the special envoy of
the U.S. President to the Caspian region and the "godfather" of
Baku-Ceyhan. Mann's specialization is further developed by Bryza.
Therefore, for the United States the conflict over Karabakh as such
does not need a settlement any more. It does not damage the energy
interests of this country.
On the contrary, every effort for settlement may become a serious
obstacle or threat for the energy policies of the Unites States.
Hence, in the framework of the settlement of the Karabakh conflict
the Unites States is regulating other processes. It was not accidental
that Bryza's appointment to Armenia aroused a rather nervous reaction
of the government.
Everything looked differently, however. The minister of defense
had an unprecedented visit to Brussels, where he smiled a wider
and longer smile shaking hands with NATO officials than even his
smile at Azatutiun Square on the occasion of the victory on the chess
olympiad. Perhaps only Mathew Bryza had smiled a wider smile in Yerevan
when he announced on March 7 that the United States started building
upward democracy, which was perceived as a call for revolution. Maybe
it was worthwhile to smile a wider smile than Bryza's in Brussels to
have the West believe that his smile was frank, and to announce in
Yerevan that there is no demand for revolution, for the community to
be convinced that the smile was not frank.
However, it is certainly very difficult to smile in Brussels and make
a statement in Yerevan at the same time. However, a friend in need is
a friend indeed. On June 16 Artashes Geghamyan announced in Yerevan
that the results of a poll conducted by Gelap suggest that 70 percent
of the population of Armenia is against revolution. In other words,
why are you coming, Bryza? However, lo and behold, Bryza is not coming
alone, and the new ambassador to Armenia is coming along. More exactly,
the former is leaving. As well as new representatives of American
organizations are coming. And it is at least strange that the leader
of an opposition party announces at this moment that the public does
not want a revolution. But who said that the new Americans are coming
for a revolution? Maybe they are just replacing the old ones. Why are
our old ones anxious and smiling "downward"? They say they laugh in
the end. But how did they know that it is the end?
From: Baghdasarian
Hakob Badalyan
Lragir.am
19 June 06
The great American maneuvers are gathering momentum. While the Armenian
community was speaking about the recall of John Evans, the United
States took up the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, and replaced Stephen
Mann by Mathew Bryza. At first the rotation of the co-chair seems
to be determined by the aspiration of the United States to reach a
breakthrough in the settlement. It is interesting, however, why the
United States trusts the settlement of the conflict over Karabakh to
a State Department official, who deals with the energy sector. Either
Bryza's profile changed, or the United States is changing the profile
of the settlement of the conflict over Karabakh.
The latter seems to fit the political strategies of the United States
better, which is based on the energy infrastructures of the region.
And it is not surprising or strange. After all, what is the most
powerful weapon of Russia in the South Caucasus? Of course, the
"switch." Consequently, in order to undermine Russian influence the
United States needs to seize the switch from Russia or supply the
region from another switch. The United States has probably chosen
the second. It was not accidental that the United States was highly
interested in eliminating or relieving consequences, when the Russian
gas pipeline was blown up in January.
Even there was information that the United States mediated Azerbaijan
to supply gas not only to Georgia but also Armenia. This information,
by the way, was not refuted officially. Besides it is important that
during Ilham Aliyev's visit to the United States neither Iran nor
Karabakh was the primary issue. Bush's announcements during Aliyev's
visit were mostly on partnership in the sphere of energy. Hence, it is
not unexpected that an official specializing in energy is engaged in
the settlement of an ethnic confrontation. By the way, the "evolution"
of the OSCE Minsk Group American co-chairs displays the dominance of
energy-based moods of the United States in this process.
Rudolf Perina was replaced by Stephen Mann, the special envoy of
the U.S. President to the Caspian region and the "godfather" of
Baku-Ceyhan. Mann's specialization is further developed by Bryza.
Therefore, for the United States the conflict over Karabakh as such
does not need a settlement any more. It does not damage the energy
interests of this country.
On the contrary, every effort for settlement may become a serious
obstacle or threat for the energy policies of the Unites States.
Hence, in the framework of the settlement of the Karabakh conflict
the Unites States is regulating other processes. It was not accidental
that Bryza's appointment to Armenia aroused a rather nervous reaction
of the government.
Everything looked differently, however. The minister of defense
had an unprecedented visit to Brussels, where he smiled a wider
and longer smile shaking hands with NATO officials than even his
smile at Azatutiun Square on the occasion of the victory on the chess
olympiad. Perhaps only Mathew Bryza had smiled a wider smile in Yerevan
when he announced on March 7 that the United States started building
upward democracy, which was perceived as a call for revolution. Maybe
it was worthwhile to smile a wider smile than Bryza's in Brussels to
have the West believe that his smile was frank, and to announce in
Yerevan that there is no demand for revolution, for the community to
be convinced that the smile was not frank.
However, it is certainly very difficult to smile in Brussels and make
a statement in Yerevan at the same time. However, a friend in need is
a friend indeed. On June 16 Artashes Geghamyan announced in Yerevan
that the results of a poll conducted by Gelap suggest that 70 percent
of the population of Armenia is against revolution. In other words,
why are you coming, Bryza? However, lo and behold, Bryza is not coming
alone, and the new ambassador to Armenia is coming along. More exactly,
the former is leaving. As well as new representatives of American
organizations are coming. And it is at least strange that the leader
of an opposition party announces at this moment that the public does
not want a revolution. But who said that the new Americans are coming
for a revolution? Maybe they are just replacing the old ones. Why are
our old ones anxious and smiling "downward"? They say they laugh in
the end. But how did they know that it is the end?
From: Baghdasarian