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  • U.S. Confirmation Row Shows Power of Diaspora Lobbies

    U.S. CONFIRMATION ROW SHOWS POWER OF DIASPORA LOBBIES

    Radio Free Europe, Czech Republic
    Aug 2 2006

    By Julie A. Corwin

    The U.S. Senate on August 1 decided once again to postpone
    its confirmation of the man designated to serve as the new U.S.
    ambassador to Armenia. Richard Hoagland has raised concern among some
    lawmakers because of his refusal to characterize the mass killings
    of Armenians by Turks in the early 20th century as genocide.

    WASHINGTON, August 2, 2006 (RFE/RL) -- U.S. Senator Joseph Biden,
    recommending that Hoagland's confirmation be postponed until a future
    date, summarized his doubts about the official White House stance on
    the genocide debate.

    "I know that the administration's not likely to change their policy,"
    he said. "But there was genocide in Armenia, and it's very difficult
    to deny history."

    Issues & Influence

    In all, nine of the 18 members of the Senate Foreign Relations
    Committee have pressed Hoagland to clarify U.S. policy on the Armenian
    genocide debate.

    It might seem surprising that so many U.S. lawmakers are prepared to
    weigh in on the politically loaded debate over whether the Ottoman-era
    killing of Armenians by Turks constitutes genocide.

    The prominence of the issue is due in large part to the efforts of
    two powerful lobbying groups -- the Armenian National Committee of
    America (ANCA), and the Armenian Assembly of America (AAA).

    The logo of the Armenian National Committee of America (courtesy
    graphic)There are lobbying groups representing the concerns of nearly
    every diaspora community in the United States. The Armenian lobby is
    one of the most successful.

    Bryan Ardouny is the executive director of the AAA. He says the issue
    remains high on the group's agenda.

    "We will continue to press forward with the ultimate goal of having the
    United States, on record, reaffirming the Armenian genocide," he says.

    Record Of Success

    The Armenian lobby has scored other victories as well.

    Both the AAA and the ANCA were instrumental in persuading lawmakers
    to block U.S. financing for a proposed railway that would link Turkey,
    Georgia, and Azerbaijan but circumvent Armenia.

    They also played a role in legislation passed in 1992 that excluded
    Azerbaijan from a list of former Soviet republics available for U.S.
    aid.

    The exclusion, meant to censure Baku for what was termed "offensive
    use of force" against Armenia and the ethnic Armenian exclave of
    Nagorno-Karabakh, remained in force until 2002, when U.S. President
    George W. Bush granted the first in a series of annual waivers of
    the provision.

    Fingerprints Not Required

    Aram Hamparian, the executive director of the Armenian National
    Committee, says his lobby also helped remove Armenia from a U.S. list
    of countries considered sources of potential terrorists.

    "A few years ago the Justice Department placed Armenia on a [terrorism]
    watch list," Hamparian says. "This meant citizens from Armenia would
    need to register and be photographed and fingerprinted and all the
    rest. And we were successful in just the course of a couple of days
    in getting Armenia taken off that list."

    So what makes the Armenian lobby so successful?

    Yerevan, to a greater degree than Baku, is dependent on the largely
    loyal U.S. lobby groups to advance its agenda in Washington.It's
    not a matter of strength in numbers. There are fewer than 2 million
    Armenian-Americans living in the United States, a country with a
    population of nearly 300 million.

    But diaspora members like Hamparian say the community is bound by a
    common belief in the power of political participation.

    And although the majority of Armenian-Americans are concentrated on
    the East and West coasts of the United States, Hamparian says the
    community is represented and active in almost every congressional
    district across the United States.

    A Study In Contrasts

    The success of the Armenian lobby runs in sharp contrast to that of
    Armenia's South Caucasus neighbor, Azerbaijan.

    Azerbaijan, like Armenia, has its own congressional caucus -- a group
    of U.S. lawmakers who pursue common legislative objectives.

    But while the Armenian caucus is highly active, its Azerbaijani
    counterpart is considered far less effective.

    The Azerbaijani lobby's biggest victory to date has been the annual
    presidential waiver on U.S. aid restrictions. Beyond that, however,
    it has had little influence.

    Facing The Giant

    Glen Howard is the director of the Jamestown Foundation, a public
    policy group that monitors developments in the former Soviet Union.
    He compares the Azerbaijani and Armenian U.S. lobby groups to David
    and Goliath -- but says there's reason to believe Azerbaijani-Americans
    will catch up.

    "The Armenians have been practicing and organized for a very long time,
    much longer than the Azerbaijanis," Howard says. "But then again,
    the Turks 40 years ago did not have a lobby, and it took them quite
    a while. But they eventually reached a level stage where they can
    compete and hold their ground with the Armenians."

    Just as the Turkish lobby squares off against the Armenians on the
    genocide issue, many Azerbaijani-Americans would like to increase
    their influence in the debate over Nagorno-Karabakh.

    But while the Armenian diaspora comprises several generations and
    maintains close, nationalistic ties with Armenia proper, the U.S.
    Azerbaijani community is less rooted -- many Azerbaijani-Americans
    are first-generation. They are also more diverse, with many coming
    not from Azerbaijan, but Iran.

    Divergent Views

    Bedir Memmedli, a member of the Washington-based Azerbaijan Society
    of America, says the views of the Azerbaijani diaspora diverge on
    some points -- but do come together on a few key issues.

    "There are a lot of common issues we all share -- for example, the
    occupation of Azerbaijan by our neighboring Armenia. There is also
    the oppression of ethnic Azerbaijanis in Iran, cultural discrimination
    against Azerbaijanis in Iran," Memmedli says.

    "These are common issues that we are all concerned about. But there
    are also some specific issues -- for example, those Azerbaijanis
    from the Republic of Azerbaijan, they usually ask or try to have
    their voices heard regarding such issues as putting more investment
    in Azerbaijan's economy."

    Lobbies Vs. Leaders

    The Azerbaijani lobby may be struggling for influence with U.S.
    lawmakers. But Washington is somewhat more receptive when it comes
    to the Azerbaijani president, Ilham Aliyev.

    The logo of the Azerbaijan Society of America (courtesy
    graphic)Aliyev, who presides over an ascendant oil-fed economy and
    geographic proximity to Iran, in April visited the White House for
    talks with President Bush.

    Aliyev's Armenian counterpart, Robert Kocharian, has yet to receive
    a similar invitation. Yerevan, to a greater degree than Baku,
    is dependent on the largely loyal U.S. lobby groups to advance its
    agenda in Washington.

    How To Help?

    Richard Giragosian, an independent security analyst and regular
    contributor to RFE/RL, says the two diaspora communities have "very
    different" perceptions about ties to their home government.

    "From a political standpoint, the diaspora for Armenia is seen as
    a pillar of support for the state, and for the regime, in terms of
    lobbying leverage. And the diaspora, for the Armenians, is almost an
    element of state power, or an element of foreign policy," he says.

    "Interestingly, in Azerbaijan's case, it's the exact opposite, where
    Azerbaijan seeks to co-opt its diaspora, because it basically sees it
    as a potential threat to the regime -- the youth, and the diaspora.
    And it seeks basically to co-opt any potential for revolutions of fruit
    or flower" -- a reference to the Orange, Rose, and Tulip revolutions
    in Ukraine, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan.

    It isn't a guarantee that Azerbaijan will benefit from a U.S. lobby
    that acts in lockstep with Baku. Giragosian says officials in Armenia
    sometimes feel the nationalistic zeal of the Armenian-American lobbies
    leaves Yerevan with less leverage in terms of foreign policy.

    This is particularly true on the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh, where, he
    says, Yerevan sometimes feels the diaspora has been "more a liability
    than an asset."
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