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  • CIS Summit in Istanbul

    Agency WPS
    What the Papers Say. Part B (Russia)
    July 2, 2004, Friday

    CIS SUMMIT IN ISTANBUL

    SOURCE: Vremya Novostei, July 2, 2004, p. 5

    by Arkady Dubnov

    Seven CIS presidents attending a NATO summit is something truly
    unprecedented. This was truly the first time that such an impressive
    delegation of leaders from the post-Soviet zone attended a summit of
    NATO. But the presidents of Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Turkmenistan, and
    Uzbekistan were absent.

    As for Vladimir Putin, much has been said already about his motives for
    turning down the invitation to Istanbul. Given the situation, his
    presence at the summit would have signified the Kremlin's silent
    approval of NATO eastward expansion.

    German political scientist Alexander Rahr commented: "In alphabetical
    order, the president of Russia would have found himself sitting at the
    summit between the representatives of Romania and Slovakia... As far as
    Moscow is concerned, equality in the Russia-NATO Council with novices
    of the Alliance is difficult to swallow. Half a century ago, Russia
    made decisions for all these countries, and even now it considers
    itself a world power."

    There is no need to explain why president of Belarus was absent. As for
    president of Armenia, he could not go to Istanbul, the capital of the
    country that sides up Baku in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. With
    regard to NATO as such, however, Armenia doesn't sense any
    idiosyncrasy. And the Turkmenbashi is the Turkmenbashi. No one in
    Istanbul was particularly sorry about his absence.

    It is much more interesting to try and gauge the motives of Uzbekistan,
    the only GUUAM country whose president was absent from the NATO summit.
    Invented as a counterweight to the pro-Moscow CIS Collective Security
    Treaty Organization, GUUAM was established by presidents of Georgia,
    Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova in 1997. Tashkent joined GUAM (and
    transformed it into GUUAM) in 1999, when Islam Karimov attended
    celebrations of the 50th anniversary of the Alliance in Washington. All
    Karimov's colleagues in the bloc dutifully flew to Istanbul but he
    opted to stay home. It should be regarded as official Tashkent's
    gesture of loyalty to Moscow - quite in line with the policy of
    strategic partnership with Russia Uzbekistan is demonstrating these
    days. The authorities of Uzbekistan certainly made their point because
    even presidents of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan (Moscow's
    strategic allies and members of the Organization of the CIS Collective
    Security Treaty) attended the NATO summit.

    Some observers do not rule out the possibility that there is another
    ulterior motive at play here. Tashkent may regard itself as a key
    center of another geopolitical axis - the one with Moscow and Beijing.
    Unlike the aid that was promised by the West but never materialized,
    China's promises of economic assistance look like something that may
    really be counted on. Moreover, Beijing doesn't demand economic and
    political reforms in return for the aid. Karimov said on two occasions
    in the last twelve months (both times in Putin's presence) that the
    period of euphoria in connection with economic cooperation with the
    West was over.

    But let's get back to the CIS leaders who attended the NATO summit. Has
    the Alliance lived up to their expectations? Apart from Leonid Kuchma
    of Ukraine, they would probably say yes. Kuchma was given to understand
    once again that Ukraine's eagerness to join the European Union would be
    met halfway only if the upcoming presidential election in Ukraine is
    recognized as democratic. Baku and Tbilisi in their turn were reassured
    that they would be permitted to approach NATO's threshold even closer.
    Mikhail Saakashvili said that Georgia might become a NATO member in
    four years. Well, the trend is undeniable. The decision was made in
    Istanbul to appoint NATO special envoys to the Caucasus and Central
    Asia. Needless to say, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov could
    only announce that "we should view this decision as a reality." What
    else was there to say?

    Observers were amused yesterday to hear of the statement made by Andrei
    Kokoshin, chairman of the Duma's CIS affairs committee. Kokoshin warned
    CIS countries aspiring to NATO membership that they would "certainly
    lose part of their sovereignty" and advised them to stick to Russia
    instead, as a "guarantor of this sovereignty."
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