Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Baku is putting covers on artillery pieces: confrontation over Karab

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Baku is putting covers on artillery pieces: confrontation over Karab

    Agency WPS
    DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
    November 3, 2006 Friday

    BAKU IS PUTTING COVERS ON ARTILLERY PIECES;
    The Azerbaijani establishment is trying to wait it out

    by Igor Plugatarev

    NEW DETAILS OF THE AZERBAIJANI-ARMENIAN CONFRONTATION OVER
    NAGORNO-KARABAKH; Azerbaijan is out to intimidate Armenia with its
    economic and military might.

    Addressing the national parliament when relations between Moscow and
    Tbilisi reached their all-time low, President of Azerbaijan Ilham
    Aliyev announced that "we need an aggressive policy, we must attack
    again and again" to force Yerevan to pull back from the occupied
    Azerbaijani territories.

    Aliyev promoted this new policy when the Trans-Dniester region had
    already convened the referendum (September 17) where an overwhelming
    majority of the population voted for independence from Moldova and
    for eventual membership in Russia. A similar referendum in South
    Ossetia is scheduled for November 12, and its outcome is easily
    predictable. Abkhazia convened a referendum like that several years
    ago. Its President Sergei Bagapsh refers to its outcome and promises
    to aspire for recognition of the runaway autonomy from the UN, OSCE,
    Council of Europe, and European Union on the basis of the plebiscite.
    As a matter of fact, Abkhazia has already forwarded the request for
    recognition of its independence from Georgia to all international
    structures.

    In early October, on the eve of celebration of 15th anniversary of
    the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh, 77 US lawmakers sent a letter to
    President George W. Bush urging him to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as
    a sovereign state. Authors of the letter made a special emphasis on
    "continued efforts aimed at development of democracy and
    establishment of a sovereign state in Nagorno-Karabakh." Moreover, it
    was not the first such appeal to Bush.

    No wonder all of that irritates Azerbaijan enormously. Particularly
    since Nagorno-Karabakh keeps an eye on what is happening elsewhere in
    the post-Soviet zone and openly supports Tiraspol, Sokhumi, and
    Tskhinvali and their actions. Hence the calls for "aggressive policy"
    and "attacks" from Baku.

    Aliyev proceeded to announce that the attacks "were not an automatic
    prelude to war which is of course the last resort." "With all other
    factors - economic, political, and otherwise - we will manage to put
    Armenia under pressure," the Azerbaijani leader said.

    Generally speaking, official Baku is convinced that Azerbaijan holds
    an advantage over Armenia. "If we take into account all these factors
    along with rapid economic development of Azerbaijan, we will see
    opportunities for resolution of the conflict," Aliyev said. "If
    Azerbaijan becomes 100 times stronger than Armenia, there will be no
    need perhaps to try and use military force to solve the problem."
    This is what is new about the latest Azerbaijani rhetoric. Nothing
    like that has ever been announced in Baku.

    "Using these factors, we must launch an offensive," Aliyev said. "We
    have already launched an information attack, time for an economic
    one. Armenia is unlikely to withdraw from the occupied territories
    unless it is feels this pressure." In other words, official Baku
    decided not to oil its automatic rifles and uncover artillery pieces
    for the time being. It will deploy "other means" to regain the lost
    territories.

    Aliyev's order last year to intimidate Armenia with a dramatic
    increase of arms spending is being carried out (in addition to the
    expectations of the no less dramatic rate of economic development,
    that is). The task he set was quite specific. "Our military budget
    must equal the Armenian budget or even exceed it," Aliyev said. The
    2006 arms spending in Azerbaijan had been initially planned at a
    level of $600 million but actual spending reached $700 million.
    That's more than two 2005 military budgets ($300 million) and four
    times the 2004 military budget ($175 million). Reports from Baku
    indicate in the meantime that next years military budget may amount
    to $900 million.

    All of that enabled the Azerbaijani leader to announce a while ago
    (on a visit to Germany) that "unless the international community
    begins to play a major role in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
    resolution, the events may take an unexpected turn because there is
    no more parity between Armenia and Azerbaijan now."

    Stratfor experts say that the Armenian budget in 2005, amounted to
    $930 million and Azerbaijani almost $3 billion. As for the Armenian
    military budget, it amounted to $155 million in 2005.

    Official Yerevan inevitably reacted to every "aggressive" statement
    from Baku a year ago, but these days it does not rise to the bait.
    Hardly the best tactic in the information war.

    On the other hand, Yerevan probably believes that it may always count
    on Russia no matter how hard the neighbor is flexing muscles and play
    oil and gas cards. Indeed, Russia has a military base in Armenia
    where 5,000 men serve. The base is being reinforced with merchandise
    from the bases Russia is withdrawing from Georgia. Come to think of
    it, the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization is also supposed
    to come to Armenia's help. Its General Secretary Nikolai Bordyuzha
    told Nezavisimoe Voennoe Obozrenie this January, that should
    Azerbaijan send its army to reacquire Nagorno-Karabakh, leaders of
    the Organization would take it as an aggression (no need to dwell on
    implications). Bordyuzha's words impressed Baku then.

    In the meantime, Azerbaijan has spared neither time nor effort to
    advance its relations with Russia. Official Baku is certainly busy.

    In any case, no progress at all has been made in the more than 12
    years of Azerbaijani-Armenian negotiations since the truce made in
    May 1994. Experts believe that the OSCE Minsk Group is but going
    through the motions. The OSCE examined the front line between
    Armenian and Azerbaijani troops in the middle of October. To quote
    Aliyev, Azerbaijan is deploying a "tactic of patience" for the time
    being.

    Source: Nezavisimoe Voennoe Obozrenie, No 39, October 27 - November
    2, 2006, p. 2

    Translated by A. Ignatkin

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Working...
X