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Ilkham Aliyev Visits Brussels, Moscow

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  • Ilkham Aliyev Visits Brussels, Moscow

    ILKHAM ALIYEV VISITS BRUSSELS, MOSCOW
    Dmitry Butrin

    Kommersant, Russia
    Nov 9 2006

    Today Russian President Vladimir Putin will suggest to Azerbaijani
    President Ilkham Aliyev, who is visiting Moscow after a trip to
    Brussels to meet with European Commission President Jose Manuel
    Barroso, that he decide whether Azerbaijan intends to continue with its
    "strategic partnership" with Russia. If Azerbaijan responds positively,
    Moscow will request Baku's cooperation in Russia's struggle with
    Georgia and will offer Russian arms and investment by UES Russia and
    RusAlum in return.

    President Aliyev's visit to Europe unnerved the Kremlin chiefly
    because of Azerbaijan's projected defense spending for 2007: the
    country will spend $1 billion on the military next year, up from $600
    million currently. Russia fears that this could be a preliminary step
    towards membership in NATO. If Azerbaijan joins neighboring Georgia
    in a NATO bid, the ex-Soviet Caucasus could end up hosting NATO and
    American military bases as the West seeks to control Iran.

    In an effort to forestall the possibility of NATO bases near its
    southern border, Russia is attempting to lure Azerbaijan back to its
    own camp with promises of increased sales of cut-rate Russian-made
    weapons. Russia has been curtailing its arms trade with Azerbaijan,
    fearing to fan the flames of Azerbaijan's long-standing feud with
    neighboring Armenia.

    Russia is also focusing on Azerbaijan in an attempt to create a
    unified front within the CIS against the Kremlin's latest enemy,
    Georgia. Moscow is seeking to impose an energy blockade on Georgia
    in the winter of 2006-2007, while Azerbaijan last winter stepped
    in with emergency supplies of electrical energy and gas when Russia
    interrupted deliveries to Georgia. In 2007, Gazprom is threatening
    to raise the price of gas for Georgia from $110 to $230 per thousand
    cubic meters. According to unofficial sources, the same proposal
    has been made for Azerbaijan as well, angering President Aliyev. The
    country currently pays $95-100 per thousand cubic meters for the 1.5
    billion cubic meters of gas that it imports from Russia annually.

    Other proposals from the Kremlin are more palatable: according to
    Kommersant's sources, Vladimir Putin will offer President Aliyev
    investment by the company RusAlum to the tune of a $1 billion aluminum
    plant in Azerbaijan. Mr. Putin will also mention interest on the
    part of the Russian company UES Energy in investing in Azerbaijan's
    energy sector.

    Technically, Mr. Aliyev's trip to Europe before coming to Moscow puts
    Mr. Putin in the position of asking rather than dictating with regard
    to his Azerbaijani colleague. Mr. Aliyev demonstrated in Brussels
    that his trip to Europe was more about energy than military matters,
    though he met with the NATO leadership. After his meeting with Mr.

    Barroso, Mr. Aliyev announced agreements between Azerbaijan and
    the EU to guarantee energy supplies from the Caspian region and
    negotiations between Azerbaijan and Ukraine on a project to deliver
    oil to Eastern Europe. President Aliyev has held similar talks with
    Belarus, a project that cannot be interpreted as pro-Russian.

    With regard to the "anti-Georgia bloc," the Azerbaijani president
    announced yesterday in Brussels that he hopes that relations between
    Russia and Georgia improve, since Azerbaijan "is building strategic
    partnerships with both countries." That stance is hardly likely to
    appeal to Vladimir Putin, meaning that today's meeting promises to
    be tense.
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