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Agency WPS
What the Papers Say Part A (Russia)
November 10, 2006 Friday
ORIENTATION TEST;
Putin checks to see if Ilham Aliyev is planning to join NATO
by Viktor Yadukha
President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan visits Moscow; President Ilham
Aliyev of Azerbaijan started a working visit to Moscow yesterday,
arriving there from Brussels. In contrast to Aliyev's Brussels visit,
his Moscow visit has been downplayed in Azerbaijan - to avoid
stirring up the pro-Western opposition.
BODY:
President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan started a working visit to
Moscow yesterday, arriving there from Brussels.
In contrast to Aliyev's Brussels visit, his Moscow visit has been
downplayed in Azerbaijan - to avoid stirring up the pro-Western
opposition. Announcements in Russia have also been very brief. But
everyone knows the issues of concern to both sides: Baku is trying to
win Moscow's support on Nagorno-Karabakh, while Moscow is trying to
prevent Azerbaijan from joining NATO.
Moscow doesn't have much economic leverage with Azerbaijan. All Azeri
oil is exported via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, bypassing
Russia; gas deliveries account for the lion's share of trade
turnover, but even this source of dependence will be eliminated once
the Shah-Deniz field starts production. However, given its influence
on Armenia, Russia is still an important mediator in the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. This mediation is also vital for
Azerbaijan's biggest investor - the United States. Shareholders in
the BTC pipeline and the new Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline require
transit security. Moscow can't side with Azerbaijan, at the risk of
losing Armenia - a member of the CIS Collective Security Treaty
Organization and Russia's sole ally in the Trans-Caucasus.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Mikhail Kamynin said on November 7 that
Russia is prepared to act as a conflict regulation guarantor if Baku
and Yerevan can reach a compromise themselves. But this is unlikely:
Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian has already made it clear
that his meeting with his Azeri counterpart on November 14 in
Brussels will not be successful. Oskanian also said recently that if
"Russia recognizes one or more of the unrecognized republics, the
Armenian Foreign Ministry will make an appropriate statement." It's a
sticky situation.
In the meantime, Western countries are trying to draw Azerbaijan
further into their orbit. Citing diplomatic sources, the "Zerkalo"
newspaper (Baku) reports that "Azerbaijan is expected to make an
official application for NATO membership within days." However,
judging by Azeri Foreign Minister Elmar Mamediarov's statement about
Russia's "important role" in the region, Baku is not prepared to take
that step as yet. Sergei Markedonov from the Political and Military
Analysis Institute says: "Azerbaijan understands that joining NATO
would exacerbate tension in relations with Russia, and draw
Azerbaijan into the Iran campaign. So Aliyev has to keep
maneuvering."
All the same, according to Azeri political analyst Zafar Guliyev,
Baku's policies could tilt towards the West in the near future. And
the invitation for Aliyev to visit Moscow after Brussels may be
regarded as the Kremlin's attempt to prevent such developments.
Source: RBK Daily, No. 33, November 9, 2006, p. 2
Translated by Elena Leonova
What the Papers Say Part A (Russia)
November 10, 2006 Friday
ORIENTATION TEST;
Putin checks to see if Ilham Aliyev is planning to join NATO
by Viktor Yadukha
President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan visits Moscow; President Ilham
Aliyev of Azerbaijan started a working visit to Moscow yesterday,
arriving there from Brussels. In contrast to Aliyev's Brussels visit,
his Moscow visit has been downplayed in Azerbaijan - to avoid
stirring up the pro-Western opposition.
BODY:
President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan started a working visit to
Moscow yesterday, arriving there from Brussels.
In contrast to Aliyev's Brussels visit, his Moscow visit has been
downplayed in Azerbaijan - to avoid stirring up the pro-Western
opposition. Announcements in Russia have also been very brief. But
everyone knows the issues of concern to both sides: Baku is trying to
win Moscow's support on Nagorno-Karabakh, while Moscow is trying to
prevent Azerbaijan from joining NATO.
Moscow doesn't have much economic leverage with Azerbaijan. All Azeri
oil is exported via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, bypassing
Russia; gas deliveries account for the lion's share of trade
turnover, but even this source of dependence will be eliminated once
the Shah-Deniz field starts production. However, given its influence
on Armenia, Russia is still an important mediator in the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. This mediation is also vital for
Azerbaijan's biggest investor - the United States. Shareholders in
the BTC pipeline and the new Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline require
transit security. Moscow can't side with Azerbaijan, at the risk of
losing Armenia - a member of the CIS Collective Security Treaty
Organization and Russia's sole ally in the Trans-Caucasus.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Mikhail Kamynin said on November 7 that
Russia is prepared to act as a conflict regulation guarantor if Baku
and Yerevan can reach a compromise themselves. But this is unlikely:
Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian has already made it clear
that his meeting with his Azeri counterpart on November 14 in
Brussels will not be successful. Oskanian also said recently that if
"Russia recognizes one or more of the unrecognized republics, the
Armenian Foreign Ministry will make an appropriate statement." It's a
sticky situation.
In the meantime, Western countries are trying to draw Azerbaijan
further into their orbit. Citing diplomatic sources, the "Zerkalo"
newspaper (Baku) reports that "Azerbaijan is expected to make an
official application for NATO membership within days." However,
judging by Azeri Foreign Minister Elmar Mamediarov's statement about
Russia's "important role" in the region, Baku is not prepared to take
that step as yet. Sergei Markedonov from the Political and Military
Analysis Institute says: "Azerbaijan understands that joining NATO
would exacerbate tension in relations with Russia, and draw
Azerbaijan into the Iran campaign. So Aliyev has to keep
maneuvering."
All the same, according to Azeri political analyst Zafar Guliyev,
Baku's policies could tilt towards the West in the near future. And
the invitation for Aliyev to visit Moscow after Brussels may be
regarded as the Kremlin's attempt to prevent such developments.
Source: RBK Daily, No. 33, November 9, 2006, p. 2
Translated by Elena Leonova