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RFE/RL Balkan Report - 11/28/2006

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  • RFE/RL Balkan Report - 11/28/2006

    RADIO FREE EUROPE/RADIO LIBERTY, PRAGUE, CZECH REPUBLIC
    _________________________________________ __________________
    RFE/RL Balkan Report
    Vol. 10, No. 11, 28 November 2006

    A Weekly Review of Politics, Media, and Radio Free Europe/Radio
    Liberty Broadcasts in the western Balkans

    NOTE TO READERS: The next issue of "RFE/RL Balkan Report" will
    appear on January 23, 2007.

    ******************************************* *****************
    HEADLINES:
    * CROATIAN PRESIDENT DISCUSSES BALKAN CONFLICT, KOSOVA STATUS
    * KOSOVA ENTERS THE HOME STRETCH
    ****************************************** ******************

    CROATIAN PRESIDENT DISCUSSES BALKAN CONFLICT, KOSOVA STATUS. Croatian
    President Stjepan Mesic told RFE/RL's South Slavic and Albanian
    Languages Service in Prague on November 14 that the destruction of
    the Croatian Danube port town of Vukovar 15 years ago was part of
    then Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic's plans to establish a
    Greater Serbia by force. The big losers in Milosevic's wars,
    Mesic argued, were nonetheless the Serbs themselves.
    Mesic argued that Milosevic thought in 1991 that he could
    "fool the world" into thinking he was determined to preserve the
    Yugoslav state when, in reality, he was trying to expand Serbia's
    boundaries into neighboring Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina. "His goal
    was to establish a Greater Serbia," Mesic said.
    In doing so, Milosevic tricked Serbian minorities outside
    Serbia by telling them he would not leave them outside Serbia's
    frontiers, and he led some of them to believe they would have a
    privileged status in his new state. In the end, however, all this
    came to nothing. Even his former allies in Montenegro deserted him
    and have now formed their own independent state.
    Mesic said he is not sure the time is now ripe for him to
    invite to Vukovar his Serbian counterpart, Boris Tadic, but added
    that "it would be a good [idea]."
    He stressed that what happened in Vukovar was "a big crime,
    even a crime of genocide." To the extent that people recall what
    happened in Vukovar and honor the victims, they have taken one more
    step toward ensuring that something like the destruction of that town
    "will never happen again," he said.
    Mesic said the time has come to resolve the question of
    Kosova's status because the current "status quo cannot remain in
    the long run." It also seems to Mesic unreasonable to expect the
    issue to be resolved by direct talks between Prishtina and Belgrade,
    since Kosova's ethnic Albanian majority wants only independence,
    to which the Serbs will never agree. Consequently, Mesic told RFE/RL,
    "the international community has to help."
    Like many observers, Mesic argues that the most likely
    outcome is that Kosova will become independent, but on the condition
    that it observes "those standards [of conduct] that apply in Europe."
    He identifies these principles as respect for "civil rights,
    multiparty political pluralism, protection of national minorities,
    freedom of the media, functioning [state] institutions, the
    separation of powers between the legislative, executive, and judicial
    branches, and protection for religious and historical monuments."
    He added that the Kosovars will also probably be asked to
    guarantee that they will not seek to form a "Greater Albania," which,
    however, is not seriously sought by any leading Kosovar or Albanian
    political party.
    Mesic cautioned against hasty judgments regarding Zeljko
    Komsic, the new Croatian representative on the Bosnian tripartite
    Presidency. Mesic noted that many Croats have suggested that Komsic
    might not "defend Croatian interests" because he does not belong to a
    nationalist party -- he is a social democrat -- and because he fought
    in the mainly Muslim Army of Bosnia-Herzegovina rather than in the
    mainly Herzegovinian Croatian Defense Council (HVO) during the
    1992-95 conflict.
    "What do people expect?" Mesic asked rhetorically. "That he
    should have served in the Army of the Republika Srpska? It is quite
    normal that one should have fought for Bosnia-Herzegovina."
    Mesic argued, moreover, that Bosnia's problem is that it
    needs to form a functioning state and get away from a tendency of its
    two constituent entities to behave as though they were states.
    "They're not," he said starkly.
    Mesic is one of the best-known figures on the political stage
    of former Yugoslavia and has been prominent in Croatian politics for
    most of the time since at least 1990, when he became prime minister.
    It was the move in May 1991 by Milosevic and his allies in the
    eight-member collective Yugoslav Presidency to block Mesic's
    assumption of the rotating chair of that body -- a move that would
    have been routine under normal circumstances -- that triggered the
    decisions of Croatia and Slovenia to declare independence in June.
    Mesic returned to Croatia, where he was a member of President
    Franjo Tudjman's Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ). In 1994 he
    broke with Tudjman and the HDZ over the conduct of the war in
    Bosnia-Herzegovina and eventually found his political home in the
    smaller Croatian People's Party (HNS).
    When Tudjman died in office at the end of 1999, most Croats
    were clearly eager to break with a style of rule that was widely seen
    as paternalistic, pompous, and rooted in the 1991-95 war. Mesic was
    first elected to the presidency in early 2000 and quickly established
    himself as Croatia's most respected politician. He adopted a more
    folksy style than that of his predecessor, whose stiffness was often
    the butt of jokes.
    Mesic also worked to break the power of the "Herzegovinian
    lobby" in Croatian politics, and there is still little love lost
    between him and the HDZ in Herzegovina. He has also been at odds with
    organized war veterans groups, who regard him as insufficiently
    nationalistic. Mesic and most Croatian political leaders since 2000
    have made it clear that they want to put the war era behind them and
    concentrate on raising the standard of living and on joining the EU
    and NATO.
    In the early years of his presidency, Mesic used the more
    informal version of his first name, Stipe, although in recent years
    he has usually gone by Stjepan. In a marked contrast with
    Tudjman's aloof style, Mesic traveled to the Dalmatian islands
    with a regularly scheduled ferry rather than with a presidential
    yacht and drank wine on the docks with fellow passengers.
    Although critics have charged in recent years that he has
    come to mimic the presidential style of the late Josip Broz Tito and
    has drifted politically too far to the left, he has generally kept
    the office free of the taint of corruption and nepotism that
    blemished Tudjman's rule (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," September
    26, 2006). (Patrick Moore)


    KOSOVA ENTERS THE HOME STRETCH. The international community has put
    off settling Kosova's final status until shortly after the
    Serbian elections slated for January 21, 2007. But the delay seems
    unlikely to affect the outcome, which will in all probability be a
    conditional independence.
    By late 2005, the leadership of the UN, at the recommendation
    of special envoy Kai Eide, concluded that leaving Kosova's
    political status unresolved had become a major source of problems for
    the province and the region as a whole. The continuing uncertainty
    had already played a role in the triggering and spread of violence
    among some of the ethnic Albanian majority in March 2004 and remained
    a potential source of future unrest. The lack of clarity also
    discouraged the investment necessary to deal with large-scale
    unemployment and jump-start the economy among people who have often
    displayed sharp business acumen when provided with a clear legal
    framework, as Kosovars have done in countries like Croatia,
    Switzerland, or Germany (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," December 17,
    2004, and June 27, September 26 and October 24, 2006).
    The decision on Kosova's final status had been expected
    by the end of 2006, and many Kosovars became apprehensive when the
    postponement was announced recently. But the delay seems designed
    only to minimize the effect of the issue on the Serbian vote and is
    probably unlikely to impact on the substance of the UN's final
    statement on status. That would appear to be a form of independence
    -- which is the only outcome acceptable to the 90 percent Albanian
    majority -- albeit with a continuing foreign presence to ensure the
    safety and rights of the minorities, particularly the Serbs, and
    their cultural institutions. The EU will most likely replace the UN
    at the heart of the foreign civilian presence, but is expected to
    have a less powerful mandate than it currently does in
    Bosnia-Herzegovina.
    UN envoy for Kosova Martti Ahtisaari is expected to make his
    announcement regarding the province's status in February 2007.
    Numerous media reports have suggested that U.S. and British diplomats
    have recently reassured Kosovar Albanian leaders that just a little
    more patience will pay dividends for them and warned them against any
    hasty moves, such as issuing a widely rumored unilateral declaration
    of independence if the decision on the final status continues to be
    delayed. Those media reports indicate that the Kosovars have accepted
    the assurances of Washington and London.
    Lest anyone forget the stakes involved in finalizing
    Kosova's status, Prime Minister Agim Ceku wrote in "The Wall
    Street Journal" of November 20 that "expectations in Kosova are
    high.... It is ready for independence, and now is not the time to
    stop the clock." He added that "we need to keep the process of
    statehood on track. Kosova needs clarity to complete reforms and to
    attract vital international investments, but also so that our own
    people -- and especially our Serb minority -- can escape the
    debilitating worries and uncertainty and start to build a future.
    Their home and future are in Kosova."
    Ceku argued that "the biggest problem in the western Balkans
    is economic malaise.... Belgrade is not interested in investing in
    the development of Kosova, and Kosova is not interested in a
    political union with Serbia. But we are interested in developing a
    productive bilateral partnership with Serbia, just as we're doing
    with our other neighbors." He believes that "social and economic
    progress in the region will be the big losers if we don't make
    the bold step forward to independence. The entire western Balkan
    region needs a kick start in order to catch the EU train and catch up
    with the awesome economic growth of our EU-bound neighbors, Romania
    and Bulgaria."
    He noted that "we have a young population and a positive
    birthrate. Given the shortages in the EU labor market due to negative
    demographic trends, Kosova can help fill the void. To do so, we need
    to retrain our work force. Hence we're now investing in
    education."
    Ceku also reminded Brussels that it cannot afford to forget
    its goal of "a Europe whole and free." He might have added that it is
    the question of Euro-Atlantic integration, perhaps more so than even
    the issue of Kosova's final status, that will be the determining
    factor for the peace and prosperity of the entire region. (Patrick
    Moore)


    NOTABLE QUOTATIONS. "The boys and girls of the [1998-99] war are
    still alive, they are in Kosova. They are ready to protect the
    freedom of Kosova. Nobody gave them weapons, they found them
    themselves, they can find them again. Their blood remains the same."
    -- Azem Syla, former commander in chief of the Kosova Liberation Army
    (UCK). Quoted in "Koha Ditore" of October 26.
    "By defending Kosovo we are defending more than our own
    interest and more that the issue of stability and piece in the
    region. We are defending international law." -- Serbian Prime
    Minister Vojislav Kostunica on voter approval of the new Serbian
    Constitution on October 29. Quoted by RFE/RL. The document explicitly
    lays claim to Kosova, where Serbian writ has not run since June,
    1999.
    "Delay [in clarifying Kosova's final status] offers no
    advantages to any party. Negotiations should be concluded. Delay can
    only frustrate the hopes of those who live in Kosovo and deny clarity
    to Serbians as they think about their own future." -- The U.S.
    representative at the talks on Kosova, Frank Wisner, speaking on
    October 31 at a news conference at the U.S. Embassy in Belgrade.
    Quoted by RFE/RL.

    (Compiled by Patrick Moore)
    ******************************************* **************
    Copyright (c) 2006. RFE/RL, Inc. All rights reserved.

    The "RFE/RL Balkan Report" is prepared by Patrick Moore based on
    sources including reporting by RFE/RL's South Slavic and Albanian
    Languages Service. It is distributed monthly.

    Direct content-related comments to Patrick Moore in Prague at
    [email protected] or by phone at (+4202) 2112-3631.
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