Tweet
NEW PARTNERSHIP WITH EUROPEAN UNION PROMPTS HOPES IN ARMENIA
Haroutiun Khachatrian
EurasiaNet, NY
Nov 30 2006
Armenians have welcomed the recent launch of a program to foster
stronger ties between the European Union and Armenia, Azerbaijan
and Georgia, but questions persist in Yerevan about what will be the
actual results of this new partnership.
The November 14 adoption of the European Union (EU)-Armenia Action
Plan for the bloc's European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) program is one
of the few recent topics that has met with apparent satisfaction from
both the government and the opposition.
The plan sets eight priority areas to be addressed as part of Armenia's
cooperation with the EU over the next five years: strengthening
democracy and rule of law; enhancing respect for human rights;
continuing economic development and poverty reduction; improving the
climate for private investors; streamlining economic policy and policy
administration; creating an energy strategy that would include the
decommissioning of the Medzamor nuclear power plant; working towards a
peaceful resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Azerbaijan;
and expanding opportunities for regional cooperation.
While the schedule for implementation of Armenia's Action Plan will not
be completed until January 2007, the government is already emphasizing
its commitment to cooperation with the EU. Most notably, the Respublika
Armenii (Republic of Armenia) newspaper, a Russian-language government
mouthpiece, wrote in its November 15 issue that Armenia has asked
the EU to monitor its implementation of the Action Plan once a year,
instead of once every two years, as is standard.
The plan notes that "[t]he level of ambition of the relationship will
depend on the degree of Armenia's commitment to common values as well
as its capacity to implement jointly agreed priorities, in compliance
with international and European norms and principles."
Already, though, the government is focusing on the possible rewards
for demonstrating that commitment. In a recent interview given to the
Noyan Tapan news agency, Deputy Foreign Minister Armen Baibourtian
noted that a free trade agreement with the EU could be one of the
results of the Action Plan. The Armenian government does not rule out
that such an agreement could be signed even before the completion of
Armenia's Action Plan in 2011, the deputy minister said.
The potential economic benefits of closer ties with the EU have
attracted widespread support, but, not unexpectedly, many ordinary
Armenians have also displayed special interest in how the documents
signed in Brussels will address the question of Nagorno Karabakh.
While in Brussels, Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan and
Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov met to discuss the
Karabakh conflict as a precursor to a November 28 encounter between
Armenian President Robert Kocharian and Azerbaijani President Ilham
Aliyev during the Commonwealth of Independent States summit in Minsk.
While President Aliyev has stated that the negotiations have now
entered their final phase, Armenian media reports about the meeting,
held at the Russian embassy in Minsk, imply that no progress was
made. The meeting was the third between the two leaders this year.
The Armenian and Azerbaijani Action Plans include almost identical
language about goals for resolving the Karabakh conflict. The
Armenian plan cites a "[c]ontinuing strong EU commitment to support
the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, drawing on the
instruments at the EU's disposal ... and in close consultation with
the OSCE [Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe]." One
distinction could be cause for future debate: the Actions section
of the Azerbaijani agreement mentions accomplishing this task while
observing "the relevant UN Security Council resolutions," but the
Armenian document mentions negotiation on the basis of international
law, "including the principle of self-determination of peoples."
During a November 18 public discussion on Armenia's ties with the
European Union held at the Urbat (Friday) Club in Yerevan, analysts,
however, were not optimistic about the impact of the Neighborhood
Policy on the conflict. At best, they said, the EU could act as an
"extinguisher" for tensions between the two sides.
One analyst, however, expressed concern that, in other regards, Armenia
may find itself left behind in building a strong relationship with the
EU, compared to Georgia and Azerbaijan. Georgia may secure more rapid
integration because of its government's strong pro-West orientation,
contended Washington-based political analyst Richard Giragosian, while
Azerbaijan could prove attractive because of its energy resources.
Giragosian, however, saw geopolitical benefits for the EU in extending
its European Neighbor Policy to the South Caucasus. The program
allows the EU to bypass Turkey, a regional player whose EU membership
ambitions have proven problematic, and to have contact with Iran,
potentially via Armenia, a long-time Iranian ally. "The formula is:
'One step beyond Turkey, one step closer to Iran'," Giragosian said.
Some observers saw other distinctions. Considerable attention has
focused recently on Georgia's ambitions to join the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization (NATO). One opposition leader, Shavarsh Kocharian,
head of the National Democratic Party, suggested at the discussion
that Georgia might, in fact, try to use its NATO membership campaign
to advance its ambitions to join the EU.
Strengthening democratic development could prove a surer way to advance
Armenia's relationship with the EU, Kocharian continued. Like other
opposition members, however, Kocharian expressed doubts that the
government would fulfill its pledges to strengthen democracy and the
rule of law along with economic growth. Other discussion participants
worried that Armenia's opposition is not strong enough to press for
such changes.
Political analyst Giragosian shared Kocharian's viewpoint, saying
that the West may reach the limit of its patience with Armenia
if the country's spring 2007 parliamentary elections fail to meet
democratic standards. "Armenia now faces greater expectations for
clean elections. The key question is whether the Armenian authorities
understand that that the expectations of the West are higher this
time," he said.
At a July 2006 Republican Party of Armenia conference, Defense Minister
Serge Sarkisian predicted that the May 2007 vote will prove Armenia's
"best elections" to date.
Editor's Note: Haroutiun Khachatrian is a Yerevan-based writer
specializing in economic and political affairs.
Haroutiun Khachatrian
EurasiaNet, NY
Nov 30 2006
Armenians have welcomed the recent launch of a program to foster
stronger ties between the European Union and Armenia, Azerbaijan
and Georgia, but questions persist in Yerevan about what will be the
actual results of this new partnership.
The November 14 adoption of the European Union (EU)-Armenia Action
Plan for the bloc's European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) program is one
of the few recent topics that has met with apparent satisfaction from
both the government and the opposition.
The plan sets eight priority areas to be addressed as part of Armenia's
cooperation with the EU over the next five years: strengthening
democracy and rule of law; enhancing respect for human rights;
continuing economic development and poverty reduction; improving the
climate for private investors; streamlining economic policy and policy
administration; creating an energy strategy that would include the
decommissioning of the Medzamor nuclear power plant; working towards a
peaceful resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Azerbaijan;
and expanding opportunities for regional cooperation.
While the schedule for implementation of Armenia's Action Plan will not
be completed until January 2007, the government is already emphasizing
its commitment to cooperation with the EU. Most notably, the Respublika
Armenii (Republic of Armenia) newspaper, a Russian-language government
mouthpiece, wrote in its November 15 issue that Armenia has asked
the EU to monitor its implementation of the Action Plan once a year,
instead of once every two years, as is standard.
The plan notes that "[t]he level of ambition of the relationship will
depend on the degree of Armenia's commitment to common values as well
as its capacity to implement jointly agreed priorities, in compliance
with international and European norms and principles."
Already, though, the government is focusing on the possible rewards
for demonstrating that commitment. In a recent interview given to the
Noyan Tapan news agency, Deputy Foreign Minister Armen Baibourtian
noted that a free trade agreement with the EU could be one of the
results of the Action Plan. The Armenian government does not rule out
that such an agreement could be signed even before the completion of
Armenia's Action Plan in 2011, the deputy minister said.
The potential economic benefits of closer ties with the EU have
attracted widespread support, but, not unexpectedly, many ordinary
Armenians have also displayed special interest in how the documents
signed in Brussels will address the question of Nagorno Karabakh.
While in Brussels, Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan and
Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov met to discuss the
Karabakh conflict as a precursor to a November 28 encounter between
Armenian President Robert Kocharian and Azerbaijani President Ilham
Aliyev during the Commonwealth of Independent States summit in Minsk.
While President Aliyev has stated that the negotiations have now
entered their final phase, Armenian media reports about the meeting,
held at the Russian embassy in Minsk, imply that no progress was
made. The meeting was the third between the two leaders this year.
The Armenian and Azerbaijani Action Plans include almost identical
language about goals for resolving the Karabakh conflict. The
Armenian plan cites a "[c]ontinuing strong EU commitment to support
the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, drawing on the
instruments at the EU's disposal ... and in close consultation with
the OSCE [Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe]." One
distinction could be cause for future debate: the Actions section
of the Azerbaijani agreement mentions accomplishing this task while
observing "the relevant UN Security Council resolutions," but the
Armenian document mentions negotiation on the basis of international
law, "including the principle of self-determination of peoples."
During a November 18 public discussion on Armenia's ties with the
European Union held at the Urbat (Friday) Club in Yerevan, analysts,
however, were not optimistic about the impact of the Neighborhood
Policy on the conflict. At best, they said, the EU could act as an
"extinguisher" for tensions between the two sides.
One analyst, however, expressed concern that, in other regards, Armenia
may find itself left behind in building a strong relationship with the
EU, compared to Georgia and Azerbaijan. Georgia may secure more rapid
integration because of its government's strong pro-West orientation,
contended Washington-based political analyst Richard Giragosian, while
Azerbaijan could prove attractive because of its energy resources.
Giragosian, however, saw geopolitical benefits for the EU in extending
its European Neighbor Policy to the South Caucasus. The program
allows the EU to bypass Turkey, a regional player whose EU membership
ambitions have proven problematic, and to have contact with Iran,
potentially via Armenia, a long-time Iranian ally. "The formula is:
'One step beyond Turkey, one step closer to Iran'," Giragosian said.
Some observers saw other distinctions. Considerable attention has
focused recently on Georgia's ambitions to join the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization (NATO). One opposition leader, Shavarsh Kocharian,
head of the National Democratic Party, suggested at the discussion
that Georgia might, in fact, try to use its NATO membership campaign
to advance its ambitions to join the EU.
Strengthening democratic development could prove a surer way to advance
Armenia's relationship with the EU, Kocharian continued. Like other
opposition members, however, Kocharian expressed doubts that the
government would fulfill its pledges to strengthen democracy and the
rule of law along with economic growth. Other discussion participants
worried that Armenia's opposition is not strong enough to press for
such changes.
Political analyst Giragosian shared Kocharian's viewpoint, saying
that the West may reach the limit of its patience with Armenia
if the country's spring 2007 parliamentary elections fail to meet
democratic standards. "Armenia now faces greater expectations for
clean elections. The key question is whether the Armenian authorities
understand that that the expectations of the West are higher this
time," he said.
At a July 2006 Republican Party of Armenia conference, Defense Minister
Serge Sarkisian predicted that the May 2007 vote will prove Armenia's
"best elections" to date.
Editor's Note: Haroutiun Khachatrian is a Yerevan-based writer
specializing in economic and political affairs.