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  • The Commonwealth will inevitably split into two parts

    Agency WPS
    DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
    December 1, 2006 Friday

    "THE COMMONWEALTH WILL INEVITABLY SPLIT INTO TWO PARTS"

    by Alexander Dugin

    POLITICAL SCIENTIST ALEXANDER DUGIN: THE COMMONWEALTH WILL GIVE WAY
    TO TWO NEW ALLIANCES; Political scientist Dugin believes that the
    Commonwealth is on the verge of collapse.

    The Commonwealth is rapidly approaching the worst crisis in its
    history. To all appearances, it is not a single alliance anymore.
    There are two of them in it. There are two factions within the
    Commonwealth nowadays, and their views on the CIS future and their
    own objectives are diametrically opposite. These factions coexist for
    the time being, but this state of affairs cannot last. The moment of
    disintegration of the Commonwealth into two alliances is getting
    closer.

    One of the future alliances may be branded as Eurasian. It will
    comprise the states that maintain friendly relations with Russia and
    that are determined to advance rapprochement of sisterly nations.
    They are Kazakhstan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and
    Armenia. Essentially, all of that comprises the nucleus of a future
    strategic world power, Eurasian Union, and perhaps even of the
    Eurasian Confederation afterwards. Remaining sovereign and fortifying
    national self-identities, these countries have opted for unity and
    integration. They view the Commonwealth itself as an instrument of
    rapprochement and reunification.

    The other faction consists of GUAM or an alliance of Georgia,
    Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova. Their agenda is wholly different.
    These countries aspire for integration into the European Union but
    the lack of enthusiasm on the part of the latter compels them to
    entertain the hope of joining NATO. The Americans actively encourage
    and feed these hopes, since they themselves need their military bases
    as close to the Russian borders as possible - and the sooner the
    better. These countries regard the CIS as an instrument of divorce
    and want to part company with Russia and Eurasian states for the sake
    of integration with the West. Not all of these countries are equally
    industrious about it. It is Saakashvili and Yushchenko (presidents of
    Georgia and Ukraine) who are undeniable GUAM leaders nowadays while
    Voronin and Aliyev (Moldova and Azerbaijan) are less sure of the
    expediency of disintegration of the Commonwealth. Uzbekistan's
    withdrawal from GUAM only reinforced their fears that what they are
    doing is correct. In fact, Moldova and Azerbaijan are afraid of
    finding themselves in nationalist Romania and kremalist Turkey
    instead of prosperous Europe.

    It may be added here that unlike Eurasian countries, all GUAM member
    states are facing problems with separatist regions. Georgia has to
    deal with runaway Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In Ukraine, the Crimean
    crisis is fomenting and the matter of federalization of eastern
    regions is rising. Moldova has to deal with the Trans-Dniester
    region, the province that aspires for membership in the Russian
    Federation. Azerbaijan has Nagorno-Karabakh, the territory that is
    its territory only in theory.

    What's the conclusion then? The CIS member states standing with
    Russia are free of territorial problems and problems with runaway
    provinces. Territorial problems haunt precisely the CIS countries
    that are anti-Russian and that aspire for NATO membership. Here is
    the First Law of the post-Soviet zone then. Whoever is with Russia is
    fine and dandy. Whoever is against it may lose some of their
    territories. Because Russia is the guarantor of post-Soviet
    countries' territorial integrity.

    Trying to consolidate sovereign post-Soviet states, Putin is careful
    to take into account their domestic democratic models and preserve
    their national features in the common strategic zone. This is what
    enlightened Putin's imperialism is about.

    Policy of enlightened imperialism has only one weak spot - domestic
    nationalism that nullifies all enlightened and legitimate nature of
    sanctions against, say, Saakashvili, that transforms the sanctions
    into persecution of Georgians by ethnic principle.

    Source: Trud, November 29, 2006, p. 3
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