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CrisisWatch No.12

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  • CrisisWatch No.12

    Reuters
    Aug 3 2004

    CrisisWatch No.12

    International Crisis Group (ICG) - Belgium
    Website: http://www.icg.org

    July 2004 saw deteriorations in eight conflict situations worldwide,
    according to August's CrisisWatch bulletin. The 30 July simultaneous
    suicide bombings of the U.S. and Israeli embassies and the general
    prosecutor's office in Tashkent aggravated the situation in
    Uzbekistan. In Kashmir, violence increased in the run-up to
    Indo-Pakistan peace talks, leaving over 200 dead, including numerous
    civilians. Sri Lanka's February 2002 ceasefire grew increasingly
    fragile with the 8 July suicide bombing in Colombo, which killed four
    police officers. Throughout the month, Thailand saw almost daily
    killings of policemen, officials and village administrators in the
    south of the country. The situations in Guinea, Madagascar, Moldova
    and Peru also deteriorated in July.

    On the positive side, four potential conflict situations showed some
    improvement last month. After intensive negotiations, months of
    stalemate in Côte d'Ivoire ended with a potential breakthrough, as
    the opposition agreed to rejoin President Gbagbo's government
    following compromises on both sides. However, considerable scepticism
    on implementation of the deal remained. In Nigeria, recent flare-ups
    of ethno-religious violence, which had left hundreds dead in previous
    months, subsided. Algeria and Bolivia also showed improvement in
    July.

    For August 2004, CrisisWatch identifies Sri Lanka and Georgia as
    Conflict Risk Alerts, or situations at particular risk of further
    conflict in the coming month. The only Conflict Resolution
    Opportunity identified for August is Nagorno-Karabakh, where reports
    of new Armenian flexibility have raised hopes of progress in
    negotiations with Azerbaijan.

    TRENDS AND WATCHLIST SUMMARY
    JULY 2004 TRENDS
    Deteriorated Situations
    Guinea, Kashmir, Madagascar, Moldova, Peru, Sri Lanka, Thailand,
    Uzbekistan


    Improved Situations
    Algeria, Bolivia, Côte d'Ivoire, Nigeria

    Unchanged Situations
    Afghanistan, Albania, Angola, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque
    region (Spain), Bosnia-Herzegovina, Burundi, Chad, Chechnya (Russia),
    China (internal), Colombia, Cyprus, DR Congo, Ethiopia/Eritrea, East
    Timor, Egypt, Georgia, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran,
    Iraq, Israel/Occupied Territories, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kosovo,
    Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Libya, Macedonia, Morocco,
    Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, North Korea,
    Northern Ireland (UK), Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia,
    Serbia, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan Strait,
    Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Venezuela, Western Sahara,
    Yemen, Zimbabwe


    AUGUST 2004 WATCHLIST
    Conflict Risk Alert
    Georgia, Sri Lanka


    Conflict Resolution Opportunity
    Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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