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BAKU: Azerbaijan must take tough line on Karabakh exercises - expert

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  • BAKU: Azerbaijan must take tough line on Karabakh exercises - expert

    Azerbaijan must take tough line on Karabakh exercises - expert

    Zerkalo, Baku
    4 Aug 04

    Azerbaijan must react firmly to the Armenian-sponsored military
    exercises that are now under way in Nagornyy Karabakh, military expert
    Azad Isazada has stated in an article in the Azerbaijani newspaper
    Zerkalo. Ultimately, he added, the conflict can only be resolved by
    military means. The following is the text of C. Bayramova's report by
    Azerbaijani newspaper Zerkalo on 4 August headlined "Azerbaijan must
    display firmness over the Karabakh issue" and subheaded "Otherwise our
    country risks losing the seized territories forever, says a military
    expert":

    The start of command staff exercises by the separatist military units
    was announced yesterday in Nagornyy Karabakh.

    For nine days, the armed formations of the Karabakh separatists will
    demonstrate their so-called fighting capacity and ability to
    coordinate military action in either offensive or defensive mode. It
    should be recalled that Armenian President Robert Kocharyan announced
    last month that military exercises by Armenian troops would be held
    shortly in the eastern sector.

    Naturally, the reaction from Azerbaijani experts to such a
    high-profile event was not long in coming. Several of them think that
    the Armenians' demonstration of their military might is merely for
    publicity purposes and is an attempt of sorts to test the
    Azerbaijanis' readiness to resolve the conflict by military means.

    The military expert Azad Isazada has spoken on the subject to the
    newspaper Zerkalo. He completely agrees that any exercises constitute
    a show of force, adding that exhibiting their military capability
    indicates yet another attempt by the separatists to display their will
    to resist.

    "Our country must certainly react in an extremely tough way.
    Azerbaijan should present a demand to the other participants in the
    exercises, stating that it is intolerable that they are being held on
    the territory of Azerbaijan," the expert thinks.

    Nevertheless, he pointed out that Armenia is going to hold the
    manoeuvres in the sector where shooting has broken out too frequently
    over the past few months and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline is being
    laid. Thus, according to the expert, these actions can be seen as a
    lever for Armenian military pressure on the whole South Caucasus.

    There is, however, a universally accepted tactic for behaviour when a
    hostile side is staging military exercises. The armed forces of
    Azerbaijan that are deployed in the region must, therefore, be put on
    full alert and the hardware, guns and manpower in their firing
    positions must be activated. The expert did not omit to declare that
    Azerbaijan should justify these measures by pointing to the fact that
    the enemy's military forces were concentrated right by the line of
    confrontation in the seized lands.

    In reply to the question of whether Robert Kocharyan was using the
    military exercises to distract public attention in Armenia, where the
    political situation was strained to the utmost, the expert said: "It
    seems to me that the aim you describe is unlikely to be achieved
    through these exercises. After all, it is external political pressure,
    and it has no particular effect on the internal atmosphere within the
    country. It may well be, though, that Kocharyan wants to show Armenia
    that he has confidence in his forces. It's as though he were saying
    that he always has troops to hand to suppress any dissent. He is,
    thus, putting psychological pressure on the opposition."

    Since he is also a military psychologist, Isazada sketched in a few
    pointers as to the possible way in which Azerbaijani and world opinion
    might perceive the separatists' holding of exercises in Nagornyy
    Karabakh. In his view, the world community would most likely do no
    more than utter statements consisting of smooth phrases and well-worn
    formulations to the effect that any escalation of the conflict was
    unacceptable. As for Azerbaijani society, any show of force by Armenia
    gives rise to perfectly justified aggression within it, particularly
    among refugees. This, in turn, is accompanied by heightened tension,
    which, in his view, could only be relieved by appropriate action by
    Azerbaijan's armed forces.

    Incidentally, our interviewee is certain that the Karabakh conflict
    can only be resolved by military means. In his view, sooner or later
    there will be a resumption of hostilities, since any peaceful
    resolution would inevitably involve Azerbaijani concessions that
    would, in effect, entail the surrender of Karabakh.

    "I am well informed about the mood of the generals and the higher
    echelons of the Ministry of Defence. There too the view is held that
    the conflict will never be resolved by peaceful means - not because
    there could be no such solution, but because it simply does not
    exist," the expert commented.
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