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Al-Ahram Weekly, Egypt
July 27, 2012
Syrian vicious circle
Will Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad resign and what will the
regional repercussions be? Who will be the new ruler of Syria and how
will that impact the country's neighbours? Lebanon, for one, will not
be the same. It is the one country that will inevitably be
tremendously impacted by a regime change in Syria.
While North Africa is overwhelmingly Sunni Muslim, with the notable
exception of a large Coptic Christian community in Egypt, the
religious composition of the people of the Middle East, or the Asiatic
section of the Arab world, is much more complex.
Shia Muslims constitute a majority of the population of Iraq, the most
populous country in Arab Asia. Sunni Muslims are a majority in much of
the Arabian Peninsula. There are pockets of Shia Islam, notably in
eastern Saudi Arabia and Bahrain as well as Yemen. Christian
minorities are found in considerable numbers in Syria, Lebanon,
Palestine, Jordan as well as Iraq. There are other religious
minorities such as the Druze of Syria, Lebanon and Palestine.
Ethnically, there are large concentrations of Kurds in northern Iraq
and Syria. Throughout the region historically called the Fertile
Crescent -- Mesopotamia and the Levant -- there are numerous ethnic
and religious minorities such as the Armenians, the Assyrian
Christians, the Chaldean Christians and countless others. However, the
main religious divide is the Shia Muslim/Sunni Muslim one.
A further complication is the imposition of the Zionist entity, the
state of Israel, as a homeland for Jews. Syria is at the crossroads
and its geographical location, straddling the Mediterranean and
Mesopotamia, makes it of paramount importance.
The nature of the Syrian regime that will inherit the corridors of
power in Damascus will determine the direction of the entire region.
Two other non-Arab regional players -- Sunni Muslim Turkey and Shia
Muslim Iran -- have been fighting wars by proxy in Syria. Iran
supports the Al-Assad regime, which is controlled by the Alawite sect,
considered Shia Muslim even though they differ from the type of Shia
Islam practised in Iran and Iraq.
Turkey, on the other hand, is a staunch supporter of the Syrian Free
Army and forces fighting the Baath regime in Syria. So while in North
Africa the main political polarisation is between Islamists and
secularists or liberals, in the Middle East the likely power struggle
is decidedly religious in nature between Shia Muslims and Sunni
Muslims.
There are definite signs Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Gulf
Arab states are sympathetic to the anti-Assad forces. Meanwhile Iran,
Hizbullah in Lebanon, and probably Shia dominated Iraq are partial to
Al-Assad's regime. While the civil war in Syria, unlike the civil war
in Libya, or the revolutions of Egypt and Tunisia, have had no serious
regional ramifications beyond their borders so far, the grave
implications on Syria's immediate neighbours, Arab and non-Arab, will
be felt soon.
It would be sad to see the region split along religious lines because
this will certainly slow down the pace of democracy and lock the
Fertile Crescent and Arabian Peninsula into a long-term fight between
the Shia/Sunni confessional divide.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
July 27, 2012
Syrian vicious circle
Will Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad resign and what will the
regional repercussions be? Who will be the new ruler of Syria and how
will that impact the country's neighbours? Lebanon, for one, will not
be the same. It is the one country that will inevitably be
tremendously impacted by a regime change in Syria.
While North Africa is overwhelmingly Sunni Muslim, with the notable
exception of a large Coptic Christian community in Egypt, the
religious composition of the people of the Middle East, or the Asiatic
section of the Arab world, is much more complex.
Shia Muslims constitute a majority of the population of Iraq, the most
populous country in Arab Asia. Sunni Muslims are a majority in much of
the Arabian Peninsula. There are pockets of Shia Islam, notably in
eastern Saudi Arabia and Bahrain as well as Yemen. Christian
minorities are found in considerable numbers in Syria, Lebanon,
Palestine, Jordan as well as Iraq. There are other religious
minorities such as the Druze of Syria, Lebanon and Palestine.
Ethnically, there are large concentrations of Kurds in northern Iraq
and Syria. Throughout the region historically called the Fertile
Crescent -- Mesopotamia and the Levant -- there are numerous ethnic
and religious minorities such as the Armenians, the Assyrian
Christians, the Chaldean Christians and countless others. However, the
main religious divide is the Shia Muslim/Sunni Muslim one.
A further complication is the imposition of the Zionist entity, the
state of Israel, as a homeland for Jews. Syria is at the crossroads
and its geographical location, straddling the Mediterranean and
Mesopotamia, makes it of paramount importance.
The nature of the Syrian regime that will inherit the corridors of
power in Damascus will determine the direction of the entire region.
Two other non-Arab regional players -- Sunni Muslim Turkey and Shia
Muslim Iran -- have been fighting wars by proxy in Syria. Iran
supports the Al-Assad regime, which is controlled by the Alawite sect,
considered Shia Muslim even though they differ from the type of Shia
Islam practised in Iran and Iraq.
Turkey, on the other hand, is a staunch supporter of the Syrian Free
Army and forces fighting the Baath regime in Syria. So while in North
Africa the main political polarisation is between Islamists and
secularists or liberals, in the Middle East the likely power struggle
is decidedly religious in nature between Shia Muslims and Sunni
Muslims.
There are definite signs Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Gulf
Arab states are sympathetic to the anti-Assad forces. Meanwhile Iran,
Hizbullah in Lebanon, and probably Shia dominated Iraq are partial to
Al-Assad's regime. While the civil war in Syria, unlike the civil war
in Libya, or the revolutions of Egypt and Tunisia, have had no serious
regional ramifications beyond their borders so far, the grave
implications on Syria's immediate neighbours, Arab and non-Arab, will
be felt soon.
It would be sad to see the region split along religious lines because
this will certainly slow down the pace of democracy and lock the
Fertile Crescent and Arabian Peninsula into a long-term fight between
the Shia/Sunni confessional divide.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress