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AZERI PUNDIT URGES BAKU TO BE CAUTIOUS ON KARABAKH, IRAN ISSUES
Yeni Musavat, Baku
23 Apr 06
A prominent Azerbaijani political analyst has called on Baku to be
careful on the Nagornyy Karabakh issue and the escalating crisis
around Iran's nuclear ambitions. In an interview with opposition
daily Yeni Musavat, former presidential advisor on foreign policy
issues Vafa Quluzada warned that Azerbaijan cannot start war with
Armenia now and must be in the anti-Iran coalition if war against
Iran starts. "Azerbaijan must protect itself and be very careful. It
is doomed to joining the anti-Iran coalition if war starts," he was
quoted in the newspaper as saying. The following is an excerpt from
Zahid Safaroglu's report by Azerbaijani newspaper Yeni Musavat on
23 April headlined "Azerbaijan may be provoked" and headlined "Vafa
Quluzada: There is no way left to resolve the Iranian issue in a
peaceable manner"; subheadings have been inserted editorially:
The South Caucasus smells of gunpowder again. But the main peculiarity
of the current situation is that the conflicting interests of the
global powers can be better seen in the region. This moment in the
geopolitical vector of the region is unlikely to pass without pain
because the historical moment of confrontation between the West, which
is growing stronger in the region, and Russia, which is getting weak
on the contrary, is inevitable. However, it does not seem logical
that Moscow will easily give up its ambitions and voluntarily yield
the Caucasus to the West. In any case, the experience of the near
past shows that the Kremlin has retreated from those regions where
it has vital interests by fighting and shedding blood.
[Passage omitted: Russia using local conflicts against newly
independent republics]
Victory unfeasible
We talked to the former state advisor [to Azerbaijani president on
foreign policy], political analyst Vafa Quluzada about the feelings
of war in the region. He first commented on the possible resumption
of hostilities in the Karabakh front. He said that Russia has a finger
in the war psycho more than the conflicting sides themselves.
The former advisor noted that the views saying that Azerbaijan will
resume war are not serious.
"This is actually a provocation because war would play into the hands
of Moscow. The matter is that all the steps of the occupying country
[Armenia] are controlled by Russia. Armenia cannot attack us because
it is already an aggressor and may face additional penalties. The
international community may also apply penalties against Russia."
Since the hostilities deal a serious blow to the West's interests in
the region and the Kremlin is interested in it, Russia will be the
object of criticism, Quluzada said.
"Russia knows about it. Therefore, it wishes not to be accused. It
wants to create the opinion that the sides themselves fight each
other. But it is impossible for Russia to stay aside because Yerevan
and Moscow have a military deal."
Quluzada believes that Azerbaijan should be extremely careful under
these circumstances. "Russia may commit provocation against us. For
example, Moscow may pretend to be neutral. Even it may turn a blind
eye to Azerbaijan's military successes in the first days of war. But
it will be bad for us later. The Kremlin may hit us with the hand of
the neighbouring country."
The former state advisor recalled that it is impossible to rely on
Russia and Azerbaijan's victory under the circumstances is unfeasible.
"That is why, we must be interested in preserving the cease-fire for
the time being. Azerbaijan's time is approaching since Russia will
collapse in 10 years."
Anti-Iran coalition: to join or not to join
As for the Iranian issue, which is directly related to the geopolitical
fate of the region, the expert believes that there is no way of
resolving the problem in a diplomatic manner.
"Tehran is a step away from acquiring nuclear weapons. Now experts
say that it may take several more years. But I say that it is possible
in a couple of months. That is why Iran will be hit now.
Moreover, the Tehran regime continues to threaten America and thus
expedites the developments."
Vafa bay [form of address] did not conceal his confidence that the
USA aims to attack Iran and said that the White House also tries to
make use of the factors inside Iran.
"It is not ruled out that they will use our countrymen [ethnic
Azerbaijanis] in Iran, but military factors matter more to Washington
than the factors inside Iran."
So, what position must Azerbaijan take in order to secure its own
interests?
Quluzada said: "Azerbaijan must protect itself and be very careful.
It is doomed to joining the anti-Iran coalition if war starts. We
are a small country and on the other hand it does not mean much
to Tehran if Azerbaijan is in the coalition." Here, the talk is of
course about the possibility that our southern neighbour may target
US installations in Azerbaijan as a last resort.
Thus, it emerges that Azerbaijan's place in our region, which resembles
a barrel of gunpowder, is very inconsistent and dangerous.
The situation of our country under cross influence (pressures) can
be complicated more because of the erroneous foreign policy of the
Aliyev administration, including wrong steps on the Karabakh issue.
This is as dangerous as the threat of the ruling dynastic regime to
our national interests.
Yeni Musavat, Baku
23 Apr 06
A prominent Azerbaijani political analyst has called on Baku to be
careful on the Nagornyy Karabakh issue and the escalating crisis
around Iran's nuclear ambitions. In an interview with opposition
daily Yeni Musavat, former presidential advisor on foreign policy
issues Vafa Quluzada warned that Azerbaijan cannot start war with
Armenia now and must be in the anti-Iran coalition if war against
Iran starts. "Azerbaijan must protect itself and be very careful. It
is doomed to joining the anti-Iran coalition if war starts," he was
quoted in the newspaper as saying. The following is an excerpt from
Zahid Safaroglu's report by Azerbaijani newspaper Yeni Musavat on
23 April headlined "Azerbaijan may be provoked" and headlined "Vafa
Quluzada: There is no way left to resolve the Iranian issue in a
peaceable manner"; subheadings have been inserted editorially:
The South Caucasus smells of gunpowder again. But the main peculiarity
of the current situation is that the conflicting interests of the
global powers can be better seen in the region. This moment in the
geopolitical vector of the region is unlikely to pass without pain
because the historical moment of confrontation between the West, which
is growing stronger in the region, and Russia, which is getting weak
on the contrary, is inevitable. However, it does not seem logical
that Moscow will easily give up its ambitions and voluntarily yield
the Caucasus to the West. In any case, the experience of the near
past shows that the Kremlin has retreated from those regions where
it has vital interests by fighting and shedding blood.
[Passage omitted: Russia using local conflicts against newly
independent republics]
Victory unfeasible
We talked to the former state advisor [to Azerbaijani president on
foreign policy], political analyst Vafa Quluzada about the feelings
of war in the region. He first commented on the possible resumption
of hostilities in the Karabakh front. He said that Russia has a finger
in the war psycho more than the conflicting sides themselves.
The former advisor noted that the views saying that Azerbaijan will
resume war are not serious.
"This is actually a provocation because war would play into the hands
of Moscow. The matter is that all the steps of the occupying country
[Armenia] are controlled by Russia. Armenia cannot attack us because
it is already an aggressor and may face additional penalties. The
international community may also apply penalties against Russia."
Since the hostilities deal a serious blow to the West's interests in
the region and the Kremlin is interested in it, Russia will be the
object of criticism, Quluzada said.
"Russia knows about it. Therefore, it wishes not to be accused. It
wants to create the opinion that the sides themselves fight each
other. But it is impossible for Russia to stay aside because Yerevan
and Moscow have a military deal."
Quluzada believes that Azerbaijan should be extremely careful under
these circumstances. "Russia may commit provocation against us. For
example, Moscow may pretend to be neutral. Even it may turn a blind
eye to Azerbaijan's military successes in the first days of war. But
it will be bad for us later. The Kremlin may hit us with the hand of
the neighbouring country."
The former state advisor recalled that it is impossible to rely on
Russia and Azerbaijan's victory under the circumstances is unfeasible.
"That is why, we must be interested in preserving the cease-fire for
the time being. Azerbaijan's time is approaching since Russia will
collapse in 10 years."
Anti-Iran coalition: to join or not to join
As for the Iranian issue, which is directly related to the geopolitical
fate of the region, the expert believes that there is no way of
resolving the problem in a diplomatic manner.
"Tehran is a step away from acquiring nuclear weapons. Now experts
say that it may take several more years. But I say that it is possible
in a couple of months. That is why Iran will be hit now.
Moreover, the Tehran regime continues to threaten America and thus
expedites the developments."
Vafa bay [form of address] did not conceal his confidence that the
USA aims to attack Iran and said that the White House also tries to
make use of the factors inside Iran.
"It is not ruled out that they will use our countrymen [ethnic
Azerbaijanis] in Iran, but military factors matter more to Washington
than the factors inside Iran."
So, what position must Azerbaijan take in order to secure its own
interests?
Quluzada said: "Azerbaijan must protect itself and be very careful.
It is doomed to joining the anti-Iran coalition if war starts. We
are a small country and on the other hand it does not mean much
to Tehran if Azerbaijan is in the coalition." Here, the talk is of
course about the possibility that our southern neighbour may target
US installations in Azerbaijan as a last resort.
Thus, it emerges that Azerbaijan's place in our region, which resembles
a barrel of gunpowder, is very inconsistent and dangerous.
The situation of our country under cross influence (pressures) can
be complicated more because of the erroneous foreign policy of the
Aliyev administration, including wrong steps on the Karabakh issue.
This is as dangerous as the threat of the ruling dynastic regime to
our national interests.