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ROW OVER ELECTORAL REFORM SPLITTING ARMENIAN COALITION
Emil Danielyan
Eurasianet
11/23/04
An increasingly bitter dispute over election rules for future
parliamentary elections could cause a split within Armenia's governing
coalition.
The Republican Party (HHK) of Prime Minister Andranik Markarian is at
loggerheads with its two subordinate coalition partners, the Armenian
Revolutionary Federation (ARF) and the Orinats Yerkir (Country of
Law) party. The dispute centers on the composition of parliament,
or, more specifically, how MPs are elected.
According to the existing law, 75 of the 131 members of the National Assembly
are elected under the proportional system, with voters choosing a list of
candidates fielded by a party or bloc. The remaining 56 seats are distributed in
single-mandate constituencies under the first-past-the-post, or "majoritarian"
system prevalent in the United States and Britain.
The vast majority of the Armenian lawmakers elected under the majoritarian
system are wealthy government-connected individuals. In the overwhelming number
of instances, these individuals wield immense economic influence within their
respective constituencies, and are widely believed to have secured victory at
the polls through bribery and manipulation. Many of them are affiliated with,
or backed by the HHK -- a key reason why Markarianâ~@~Ys party has the largest
parliament faction and controls most local governments. The HHK is certainly
Kocharianâ~@~Ys most influential supporter.
The junior coalition members would prefer to do away with first-past-the-post
constituencies, and base future elections entirely on the proportional
system. At the very least, they want to reduce the number of majoritarian seats
in
the legislature. The ARF, also known as Dashnaktsutiun, has warned that it
could quit the coalition if the HHK continues to oppose a move to increase the
number of parliamentary seats determined under the proportional system.
"Dashnaktsutiun reserves the right to reconsider its participation in the
coalition government in the event of a breach of the goals spelled out in the
[June 2003] memorandum on its [the coalitionâ~@~Ys] creation," warned Armen
Rustamian, one of its leaders. He said expansion of the proportional system was
one of
the key terms of the coalitionâ~@~Ys power-sharing accord.
The coalition cabinet has been beset by internal wrangling ever since its
creation following the May 2003 parliamentary elections, which were marked by
widespread accusations of fraud. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive
]. The ARF has regularly expressed its dissatisfaction with the slow pace of
economic improvement, persisting government corruption and what its leaders
characterize as the "power of money" in the impoverished country. The
influential
nationalist party, which has branches in Armeniaâ~@~Ys worldwide Diaspora,
toughened its rhetoric in early November after the HHK torpedoed its efforts at
electoral reform.
The two sides have tried unsuccessfully in recent weeks to bridge their
differences. Tigran Torosian, a deputy parliament speaker and an HHK leader,
said
on November 23 that the Republicans will make a final attempt to strike a
compromise deal later this week. Their failure to reach agreement would set the
stage for Kocharianâ~@~Ys personal intervention in the row, which has already
proven
debilitating for the governing coalition. Keeping all of his major allies
happy will be a difficult task, observers in Yerevan say.
Despite the recent rise in heated rhetoric, HHK leaders have been quick to
shrug off the threat of an ARF departure. "Let nobody think that we become very
concerned and nervous every time they talk about leaving [the coalition],"
Markarian said in a recent newspaper interview.
Of all the other Armenian parties only Orinats Yerkir, which is led by
parliament speaker Artur Baghdasarian, did reasonably well in individual races
in
the 2003 parliament elections. Yet it too wants a greater share for the
party-list seats. Proponents of the proportional system say that it would spur
the
development of political parties. Increased political competition, in turn,
would
make it more difficult for one party to get away with voting irregularities.
In a bid to prevail in the dispute, the rival camps have turned to other
political groups for support. The Republicans are strongly backed on the issue
by
the Peopleâ~@~Ys Deputy group of non-partisan lawmakers. Orinats Yerkir and the
ARF, meanwhile, have enlisted the support of the United Labor Party (MAK), a
small pro-Kocharian group also represented in the current legislature.
MAK leader Gurgen Arsenian claimed on November 18 that "new realignments"
could occur both inside the parliament and the government. He said opponents of
the majoritarian system are prepared to take "drastic steps," which he declined
to specify. "Time will tell whether or not there will be a change in the
coalition format," Arsenian told reporters. "I donâ~@~Yt rule that out."
The existing balance of forces in parliament favors the HHK, the most
powerful government faction. Together with the Peopleâ~@~Ys Deputy group, they
hold about
60 parliament seats compared to less than 40 seats controlled by their
pro-presidential opponents. However, the junior coalition members could end up
winning the electoral rules debate if they gain the support of the 23 lawmakers
representing Armeniaâ~@~Ys two main opposition groups, the Artarutiun (Justice)
alliance the National Unity Party (AMK).
Whether the opposition parties are willing to join forces with the junior
coalition members on the electoral rules issue is uncertain at this point.
Artarutiun and the AMK are both known to be strong advocates of proportional
representation, but they have boycotted parliament sessions since February 2004.
The
boycott is linked to the pro-presidential parliament majorityâ~@~Ys refusal to
consider a "referendum of confidence" in Kocharian. [For background see the
Eurasia Insight archive].
The opposition refuses to recognize the legitimacy of Kocharianâ~@~Ys victory in
the 2003 presidential vote. For more than a year after the election, the
opposition pursued a popular protest strategy against Kocharian. That effort,
however, failed to attract a sufficient following that could exert pressure on
the
president to either change political course, or step down. [For background see
the Eurasia Insight archive].
Since abandoning the protest strategy, opposition leaders have kept a low
profile, waiting for an opportunity to capitalize on the renewed government
infighting. They may now believe such an opportunity is at hand and try to stoke
the intra-governmental tensions by openly backing the electoral reform
championed by the ARF. All of which makes the fast resolution of the coalition
dispute
even more urgent for Kocharian.
Editorâ~@~Ys Note: Emil Danielyan is a Yerevan-based journalist and political
analyst.
--Boundary_(ID_mfgWO/sJCL6o5V4fBWfeQg)--
Emil Danielyan
Eurasianet
11/23/04
An increasingly bitter dispute over election rules for future
parliamentary elections could cause a split within Armenia's governing
coalition.
The Republican Party (HHK) of Prime Minister Andranik Markarian is at
loggerheads with its two subordinate coalition partners, the Armenian
Revolutionary Federation (ARF) and the Orinats Yerkir (Country of
Law) party. The dispute centers on the composition of parliament,
or, more specifically, how MPs are elected.
According to the existing law, 75 of the 131 members of the National Assembly
are elected under the proportional system, with voters choosing a list of
candidates fielded by a party or bloc. The remaining 56 seats are distributed in
single-mandate constituencies under the first-past-the-post, or "majoritarian"
system prevalent in the United States and Britain.
The vast majority of the Armenian lawmakers elected under the majoritarian
system are wealthy government-connected individuals. In the overwhelming number
of instances, these individuals wield immense economic influence within their
respective constituencies, and are widely believed to have secured victory at
the polls through bribery and manipulation. Many of them are affiliated with,
or backed by the HHK -- a key reason why Markarianâ~@~Ys party has the largest
parliament faction and controls most local governments. The HHK is certainly
Kocharianâ~@~Ys most influential supporter.
The junior coalition members would prefer to do away with first-past-the-post
constituencies, and base future elections entirely on the proportional
system. At the very least, they want to reduce the number of majoritarian seats
in
the legislature. The ARF, also known as Dashnaktsutiun, has warned that it
could quit the coalition if the HHK continues to oppose a move to increase the
number of parliamentary seats determined under the proportional system.
"Dashnaktsutiun reserves the right to reconsider its participation in the
coalition government in the event of a breach of the goals spelled out in the
[June 2003] memorandum on its [the coalitionâ~@~Ys] creation," warned Armen
Rustamian, one of its leaders. He said expansion of the proportional system was
one of
the key terms of the coalitionâ~@~Ys power-sharing accord.
The coalition cabinet has been beset by internal wrangling ever since its
creation following the May 2003 parliamentary elections, which were marked by
widespread accusations of fraud. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive
]. The ARF has regularly expressed its dissatisfaction with the slow pace of
economic improvement, persisting government corruption and what its leaders
characterize as the "power of money" in the impoverished country. The
influential
nationalist party, which has branches in Armeniaâ~@~Ys worldwide Diaspora,
toughened its rhetoric in early November after the HHK torpedoed its efforts at
electoral reform.
The two sides have tried unsuccessfully in recent weeks to bridge their
differences. Tigran Torosian, a deputy parliament speaker and an HHK leader,
said
on November 23 that the Republicans will make a final attempt to strike a
compromise deal later this week. Their failure to reach agreement would set the
stage for Kocharianâ~@~Ys personal intervention in the row, which has already
proven
debilitating for the governing coalition. Keeping all of his major allies
happy will be a difficult task, observers in Yerevan say.
Despite the recent rise in heated rhetoric, HHK leaders have been quick to
shrug off the threat of an ARF departure. "Let nobody think that we become very
concerned and nervous every time they talk about leaving [the coalition],"
Markarian said in a recent newspaper interview.
Of all the other Armenian parties only Orinats Yerkir, which is led by
parliament speaker Artur Baghdasarian, did reasonably well in individual races
in
the 2003 parliament elections. Yet it too wants a greater share for the
party-list seats. Proponents of the proportional system say that it would spur
the
development of political parties. Increased political competition, in turn,
would
make it more difficult for one party to get away with voting irregularities.
In a bid to prevail in the dispute, the rival camps have turned to other
political groups for support. The Republicans are strongly backed on the issue
by
the Peopleâ~@~Ys Deputy group of non-partisan lawmakers. Orinats Yerkir and the
ARF, meanwhile, have enlisted the support of the United Labor Party (MAK), a
small pro-Kocharian group also represented in the current legislature.
MAK leader Gurgen Arsenian claimed on November 18 that "new realignments"
could occur both inside the parliament and the government. He said opponents of
the majoritarian system are prepared to take "drastic steps," which he declined
to specify. "Time will tell whether or not there will be a change in the
coalition format," Arsenian told reporters. "I donâ~@~Yt rule that out."
The existing balance of forces in parliament favors the HHK, the most
powerful government faction. Together with the Peopleâ~@~Ys Deputy group, they
hold about
60 parliament seats compared to less than 40 seats controlled by their
pro-presidential opponents. However, the junior coalition members could end up
winning the electoral rules debate if they gain the support of the 23 lawmakers
representing Armeniaâ~@~Ys two main opposition groups, the Artarutiun (Justice)
alliance the National Unity Party (AMK).
Whether the opposition parties are willing to join forces with the junior
coalition members on the electoral rules issue is uncertain at this point.
Artarutiun and the AMK are both known to be strong advocates of proportional
representation, but they have boycotted parliament sessions since February 2004.
The
boycott is linked to the pro-presidential parliament majorityâ~@~Ys refusal to
consider a "referendum of confidence" in Kocharian. [For background see the
Eurasia Insight archive].
The opposition refuses to recognize the legitimacy of Kocharianâ~@~Ys victory in
the 2003 presidential vote. For more than a year after the election, the
opposition pursued a popular protest strategy against Kocharian. That effort,
however, failed to attract a sufficient following that could exert pressure on
the
president to either change political course, or step down. [For background see
the Eurasia Insight archive].
Since abandoning the protest strategy, opposition leaders have kept a low
profile, waiting for an opportunity to capitalize on the renewed government
infighting. They may now believe such an opportunity is at hand and try to stoke
the intra-governmental tensions by openly backing the electoral reform
championed by the ARF. All of which makes the fast resolution of the coalition
dispute
even more urgent for Kocharian.
Editorâ~@~Ys Note: Emil Danielyan is a Yerevan-based journalist and political
analyst.
--Boundary_(ID_mfgWO/sJCL6o5V4fBWfeQg)--