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Strike Iran, Watch Pakistan and Turkey Fall

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  • Strike Iran, Watch Pakistan and Turkey Fall

    Center for Research on Globalization, Canada
    April 22 2006

    Strike Iran, Watch Pakistan and Turkey Fall
    What are the consequences of such an action?

    by John Stanton

    April 22, 2006

    `Our society is run by insane people for insane objectives. I think
    we're being run by maniacs for maniacal ends and I think I'm liable
    to be put away as insane for expressing that. That's what's insane
    about it.' John Lennon

    Just when it seemed unlikely that domestic and international events
    would unfold to test an already incompetent US government, along
    comes the acceleration of the movement to destroy Iran. That effort
    has been well documented over the past few years in scores of
    articles and position papers from the usual suspects in the media,
    think-tanks, and the Net. What's missing in that coverage, though, is
    an understanding of the consequences of such an action, or
    consequence management in Pentagon parlance. More's the pity in this
    discussion, comes the knowledge that the majority of Americans who
    are calling for military action - from all strata of society--do so as
    if they were casually ordering a pizza from Dominoes. Just pick-up
    the cellphone and, while salivating, order the Iranian War Special.
    Sit back and enjoy the pizza while watching the war coverage on
    television and gruesome videos on the Net. *****..Ahhh, look at that
    Specter Gunship at work! Whoa! Look at those body parts flying
    around. Pass me another piece of pizza!

    That attitude is indicative of an intellectually bankrupt society.
    Does anyone in the USA think anymore? An attack on Iran would result
    in thousands of casualties for both US and Iranian military
    personnel, most of whom are youngsters. Civilian casualties would be
    in the many thousands. The ripple effect from such an action would
    cause a chain reaction of events that would spiral out of control.
    With no country, or group of countries, capable of de-escalating such
    a conflict--save for Russia and China--a world war could ensue.
    Certainly, the US government is no position to cope with the fallout,
    particularly if it deploys and uses tactical nuclear weapons. For
    some sane commentary on the matter, one has to rely on the lucid
    commentary of Martin Van Crevald over in Israel. His piece in Forward
    titled, Knowing Why Not to Bomb Iran is Half the Battle (
    should be force-fed to supporters of an Iranian invasion.

    Hello United Free Kurdistan

    According to a Reuters bulletin dated April 20th, Turkey has
    increased its troop presence in Kurdish dominated Southeastern Turkey
    by 40,000 - bringing the total to 290,000. The Turkish government made
    that move because the American-backed Kurdish government in Northern
    Iraq/Kurdistan is likely to supply the Kurdistan Workers Party (PPK)
    with arms and intelligence on Turkish military movements in Hakkari,
    Van, Sirnak and other major cities in the country. It is likely that
    insurgents in Iraq have been training the PPK in the tactics that
    have been wildly successful against US forces in Iraq. Turkey has
    been ruthless in its oppression of the Kurds, as Saddam Hussein was,
    and that practice, according to the Kurdish National Congress
    (, continues to this day with the Turkish Army's secret
    police, Jitem, terrorizing the Kurdish population.,
    reports that the Kurdish language was not legalized until 1991 and
    the Turkish government had engaged in forced displacements as late as
    2002 to break-up concentrations of the 20 million Kurds who reside in
    Turkey. Separatist statements by Kurds or talk of recognizing the
    Armenian Genocide results in doing some hard time in a Turkish jail.

    The Turkish government has frequently complained about the duplicity
    of the US government as it plays its Kurdish cards. The US has
    largely stayed away from Turkey's battle with its Kurds while
    actively supporting Kurdish groups in Iran and Syria with funds and
    arms. The creation of Kurdistan in Northern Iraq has infuriated
    Turkish leaders. When Condolezza Rice visits with Turkish officials
    in late April, these matters are sure to be topics of discussion.

    Meanwhile in Iran, there are approximately four million Kurds who
    have suffered a similar fate as their Turkish compatriots. The Kurds
    in Iran are split on the type of revolt they want to run. One group
    formed in January 2006, the Kurdish United Front, wants to work
    within the Iranian system to gain equal rights. They likely receive
    funds from the US government via the KNC and other outlets. A Kurdish
    insurgent group known as Pejak--supported by the US government and
    working with US Special Forces and intelligence agencies on the
    ground--advocates the violent overthrow of the Islamic government in

    Back in Turkey, the Kurds are not the only problem. There are
    accusations by opponents of Turkish President Recep Ergodan that
    Turkey is becoming a theocracy. Facing an election in 2007, the last
    thing Ergodan needs is to be perceived as an Islamic radical and
    incur the wrath of opponents supported by the Turkish military, which
    is to say the US military. The World Peace Herald,,
    carried a story titled, Turkish PM Tied to Islamic Forces. `In
    increasingly bitter verbal exchanges with President Ahmet Necdet
    Sezer, Mr. Erdogan rejected charges that he is leading Turkey away
    from its secular system toward Islamic fundamentalism. Mr. Sezer's
    latest broadside was a statement to the War Academy that 'religious
    fundamentalism has reached dramatic proportions. Islamic
    fundamentalism is trying to infiltrate politics, education and the
    state, it is systematically eroding values...''

    So, as the bombs fly over Iran, the Kurds would be likely to seize
    the day and fight for the recognition of a Kurdish state that deletes
    portions of present-day Turkey, Iran, Syria and Iraq
    ( from the map. This is no idle
    dream. The American based KNC openly advocates a United Free
    Kurdistan. One day, there will be a Kurdish state. That could be done
    in a non-violent fashion rather than as a consequence of a misguided
    military adventure against Iran. Finally, an invasion of that country
    would likely involve Turkish assets of some kind. As a member of
    NATO, Turkey houses tactical nuclear weapons and, as reported by
    Ramin Jahanbegloo in the Daily Star, `Participation by Turkey in a
    US/Israeli military operation is also a factor [concerning Iran],
    following an agreement reached between the Turks and Israelis.'

    Central Asia and the Middle East would become a bloodbath one minute
    after an attack on Iran.

    Bye Bye Pakistan

    In Pakistan, the US is having its cake and eating too. US weapons and
    technology are being used by the Pakistani dictatorship of President
    Musharraf to suppress a revolt for independence by the people of
    Balochistan (, also home to Pakistan nuclear
    tests in 1998 and a energy- rich province. The USA is also funding
    anti-Pakistani insurgent groups in Bolochistan in order to infiltrate
    drug operations, the black market for nuclear weaponry, Taliban
    remnants, and assorted Islamic resistance groups like Al Qa'da that
    have taken up residence in the hinterlands of Balochistan. The US
    State Department's 2004 country report on Pakistan was effusive in
    its praise for Pakistan indicating that it was the key ally in the
    Long War on Terror and that Pakistan has its internal affairs under
    control. Yet the situation on the ground is quite different.

    A February 2006 piece carried by has the
    following headline: Chemical Gas, Gunship Copters Used Against Baloch
    People. `Balochistan, the area's largest and resource-rich province
    of Islamic Republic of Pakistan, has recently taken another blood
    bath where many innocent people have been killed in an [Pakistani]
    army action. [Pakistani] Interior Minister Aftab Sherpao has claimed
    that no children or woman have been killed in the recent operation
    but photographs released show that many innocent children were
    brutally killed in bombardment, as they can not be termed as

    Pakistan is suppressing news on the seriousness of its fight against
    the Baloch. The number of killed-in action (KIA) its Army has
    incurred combating the Boloch revolt is well over 100 with thousands
    wounded. These troopers are portrayed by Musharraf as casualties in
    the fight against foreign terror when, in fact, its akin to a civil
    war: the Baloch are fighting for independence.

    India Monitor reported in January 2006 that `Senator Sanaullah
    Baloch, a vocal and influential member of the Balochistan National
    Party...said that if conditions continued to be as oppressive for the
    people of his home province, we will have no option but to exercise
    our national right for self-determination for a separate
    state...Today every Baloch knows that Pakistan is a viable state only
    because of Balochistan...Pointing to the natural resources and the
    strategic importance of the province in the region, he said that the
    information revolution had made the world very small and today the
    Baloch people could not be fooled, and wanted their rights.' (The
    dynamics of Kashmir, which threaten Pakistan's stability, are beyond
    the scope of this piece).

    As Iran is pummeled by US air strikes, and the Kurds make their move,
    What will the Baloch do? How will rebel groups like Al Qa'da respond?
    Will they rally to their Iranian comrades? Would the Pakistani
    military use a tactical nuke to wipe out all its problems in
    Balochistan? What about India's reaction? What will Turkmenistan and
    the rest of the Stans do? Would Armenia side with the Turkish Kurds?
    How will the US troops in Iraq handle the fallout?

    In another stellar example of incompetence, the USA-Indo nuclear deal
    struck by President Bush with Prime Minister Singh this past March
    was suppose to be a signal to Russia and China that the US is
    almighty. The USA seemingly gave no thought to what the deal with a
    country that refused to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
    might create. Pakistan has vowed to increase its nuclear weapons
    capability. China has offered to build reactors for Pakistan and can
    tinker with America's prosperity via currency manipulation. Russian
    nuclear forces are being upgraded. Saudi Arabia is alleged to have
    purchased tactical nukes and is starting its own commercial and
    military nuclear capability. In South America, Brazil has ramped up
    production of its nuclear capabilities and will not allow inspectors
    into certain nuke facilities. And there can be no question that
    Venezuela will develop a nuke program or, like Saudi Arabia, just buy
    the weapons outright on the black market.

    You Say You Want a Revolution

    Domestic factors in the USA have to be added to this already volatile
    brew. The Red, White and Blue Revolt of retired US military generals
    such as Gregory Newbold and Anthony Zinni carried out in the US
    mainstream media is fascinating. Their call for Secretary of Defense
    Donald Rumsfeld's resignation is unprecedented in American wartime
    history and indicates that the only credible opposition to a civilian
    leadership gone mad is the military and big corporations. That other
    party called the Democrats are part of the problem and not the
    solution. As for President Bush; he dutifully does what he's told by
    Cheney and Rumsfeld.

    Take note that the generals are key players in investment companies
    like Globesecnine (Newbold is co-founder of and
    Anthony Zinni is a board member of Veritas Capital (along with a
    who's who of former US military leaders). Wall Street helps fund
    these groups and they may have figured, finally, that Rumsfeld is bad
    for the military and business (read Jeffrey St. Clair of for more on that relationship). US intelligence
    agencies like the CIA are always involved overtly or covertly in the
    investment/stock trading business, and likely have involvement in
    these investment firms. They are saying something too: revenge is

    With rebellion in the military and corporate ranks, and the potential
    for more indictments of Bush Administration's insiders (Karl Rove?)
    in the Valerie Plame/Joe Wilson CIA case, one has to wonder how this
    group of people could possibly manage the day-after realities of an
    Iranian assault.

    The USA is operating as if it really is an unchallenged superpower.
    What kind of superpower has increasing poverty, homelessness,
    unemployment and can't even rebuild one of its premier cities - New
    Orleans - after a hurricane? What kind of superpower refuses to make
    concessions, to negotiate and treats other nations like China and
    Russia as inferior entities? What nation is the Paper Tiger now? It
    never had to be this way.

    So what about Iran? The simple answer, in two parts, to all this
    madness is to turn the Iranian matter over the the Shanghai
    Cooperation Organization (SCO), a NATO-like security coalition led by
    China and Russia. Iran is soon to become a member of that group
    anyway. Let the SCO monitor Iran as it builds its nuclear commercial
    and military capability. Iran wants to be a key energy player in a
    region it knows is dominated by Russia and China. The USA wants that
    black gold to come West and have geopolitical control over Central
    Asia. It's never going to happen. It is inevitable that the Kurds and
    Baloch will have their independent states, the Iranians and
    Brazilians will have their nuclear power/weapons, the Chinese will
    have their ascendancy, the Russians will return to the world stage,
    and the Palestinians will get a fair shake one day.

    Secondly, negotiate. More than ever, the USA needs to get back to the
    negotiating table. Maybe some grand brain out there should read
    NSC-68, Sec IX, authored in 1950 and designed to deal with the former
    Soviet Union. `The free countries must always, therefore, be prepared
    to negotiate and must be ready to take the initiative at times in
    seeking negotiation. They must develop a negotiating position which
    defines the issues and the terms on which they would be prepared--and
    at what stages--to accept agreements... The terms must be fair in the
    view of popular opinion... This means that they must be consistent
    with a positive program for peace--in harmony with the United
    Nations' Charter and providing, at a minimum, for the effective
    control of all armaments by the United Nations or a successor

    Talking? Negotiating? Why not the SCO?

    What an insane thought.

    John Stanton is a Virginia based writer specializing in national
    security and political matters. He is the author of A Power But Not
    Super and co-author of America's Nightmare. Reach him at
    [email protected] ewArticle&code=STA20060422&articleId=2319