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WILL THE KARS-AKHALKALAK RAILROAD BE CONSTRUCTED? (ANALYSIS)
Armen Manvelyan
"Radiolur"
31.03.2006 10:50
Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum and newly appointed New Jersey
Senator Bob Menendez introduced legislation this week that would
prohibit US assistance for the building of railroads traversing the
Caucasus that circumvent Armenia.
The legislation titled the "South Caucasus Integration and Open
Railroads Act " was introduced immediately following the meeting of
the Senators with representatives of the Armenian National Committee
of America. Senator Rick Santorum noted that the construction of
the railroad would not only offset the long-term plans of the United
States in the region, but will also isolate Armenia, which does not
come from US's interests.
It should be noted that Azerbaijan and Turkey have been leading the
policy of blockade for 13 years, and despite the periodic demands
of the different international organizations to end the blockade,
there has been no progress on this issue. Such obstinacy can be
explained with Turkey's will to have a dominant position in the
region rather than the unsolved Karabakh issue. The construction of
the Kars-Ahalkalak railroad can considerably strengthen the blockade
of Armenia. It's not a secret that the negotiations on this issue
between Ankara and Tbilisi started still nine years ago, in 1997,
when an interstate agreement was even reached.
However, despite the long process of negotiations and the several
tenders announced, no international structure expressed the will
to participate in the auction and finance the project of the
Kars-Akhalkalak railroad. It needs to be noted that the project,
at least so far, is not assisted by big states. It is not a secret
that any large international program can be implemented only with
the financial, and primarily political support of these countries.
Currently it is possible to accomplish any such politicized project
in the region in case there is the support of the White House. Under
these circumstances, the countries interested in the Kars-Akhalkalak
project need the approval of the United States and the European Union.
However, if before there was a firm conviction that there would
be no problems with the necessary approval, today the parties are
concerned that it is senseless to anticipate the assistance of the
West. Therefore, the parties had to declare about their willingness
to accomplish the project on own financing.
However, for finding these financial resources, it is necessary
to clarify how much the program costs. Despite the different
investigations, the evaluations here range from $400 thousand to $2
billion. This difference is explained with the fact that in reality
it is not clear so far what length the railroad will have. Many
specialists note that for constructing a railroad of international
importance it is not enough to build the 98 kilometers long
Kars-Akhalkalak railway, it is necessary to completely reconstruct
the 160 kilometer long Akhalkalak-Tbilisi sector of the Georgian
railway. That is to say that the total length of the project makes
258 km, which makes the implementation of the program considerably
more expensive and complex.
It is obvious from EU-Turkey talks that official Brussels will not
assist any program that breaks the balance in the region and moreover
does not promote the improvement of Armenian-Turkish relations. It is
clear that in case we receive complete assistance of the US Congress
on this issue, the Kars-Akhalkalak program will become a utopia.
Armen Manvelyan
"Radiolur"
31.03.2006 10:50
Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum and newly appointed New Jersey
Senator Bob Menendez introduced legislation this week that would
prohibit US assistance for the building of railroads traversing the
Caucasus that circumvent Armenia.
The legislation titled the "South Caucasus Integration and Open
Railroads Act " was introduced immediately following the meeting of
the Senators with representatives of the Armenian National Committee
of America. Senator Rick Santorum noted that the construction of
the railroad would not only offset the long-term plans of the United
States in the region, but will also isolate Armenia, which does not
come from US's interests.
It should be noted that Azerbaijan and Turkey have been leading the
policy of blockade for 13 years, and despite the periodic demands
of the different international organizations to end the blockade,
there has been no progress on this issue. Such obstinacy can be
explained with Turkey's will to have a dominant position in the
region rather than the unsolved Karabakh issue. The construction of
the Kars-Ahalkalak railroad can considerably strengthen the blockade
of Armenia. It's not a secret that the negotiations on this issue
between Ankara and Tbilisi started still nine years ago, in 1997,
when an interstate agreement was even reached.
However, despite the long process of negotiations and the several
tenders announced, no international structure expressed the will
to participate in the auction and finance the project of the
Kars-Akhalkalak railroad. It needs to be noted that the project,
at least so far, is not assisted by big states. It is not a secret
that any large international program can be implemented only with
the financial, and primarily political support of these countries.
Currently it is possible to accomplish any such politicized project
in the region in case there is the support of the White House. Under
these circumstances, the countries interested in the Kars-Akhalkalak
project need the approval of the United States and the European Union.
However, if before there was a firm conviction that there would
be no problems with the necessary approval, today the parties are
concerned that it is senseless to anticipate the assistance of the
West. Therefore, the parties had to declare about their willingness
to accomplish the project on own financing.
However, for finding these financial resources, it is necessary
to clarify how much the program costs. Despite the different
investigations, the evaluations here range from $400 thousand to $2
billion. This difference is explained with the fact that in reality
it is not clear so far what length the railroad will have. Many
specialists note that for constructing a railroad of international
importance it is not enough to build the 98 kilometers long
Kars-Akhalkalak railway, it is necessary to completely reconstruct
the 160 kilometer long Akhalkalak-Tbilisi sector of the Georgian
railway. That is to say that the total length of the project makes
258 km, which makes the implementation of the program considerably
more expensive and complex.
It is obvious from EU-Turkey talks that official Brussels will not
assist any program that breaks the balance in the region and moreover
does not promote the improvement of Armenian-Turkish relations. It is
clear that in case we receive complete assistance of the US Congress
on this issue, the Kars-Akhalkalak program will become a utopia.