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  • ANKARA: 'New Relation Taking Shape Between Turkey And US'

    'NEW RELATION TAKING SHAPE BETWEEN TURKEY AND US'
    Yonca Poyraz DoÐan

    Today's Zaman, Turkey
    April 2 2007

    Suat Kýnýklýoðlu, a Turkish foreign policy expert and currently the
    executive director of the German Marshall Fund of the United States'
    office in Ankara, has said some American observers of Turkey have
    concerns about Turkish foreign policy moves because Turkey cannot
    communicate its objectives and intentions well. Indeed, he said,
    Turkey is reintegrating into the Middle East, which is not only in
    the interest of Turkey but also in the interest of its European and
    American partners.

    "We need to try to ease the problems that arise at the moment between
    us and the United States, or us and the European Union, and help
    them to digest our new identity," Kýnýklýoðlu said. "We come from an
    Ottoman state tradition. We feel like we don't need to tell others
    what we are doing, that others should understand us naturally, but
    that's not the case."

    For Monday Talk, Kýnýklýoðlu spoke with us about the new dimensions
    of Turkey's foreign policy, and how it has been affecting Ankara's
    relations, mainly with the United States and regional countries.

    You have so much contact with Turkey observers in the United States.

    How do they see Turkey these days?

    One of the biggest concerns I have been having in relation to how
    Turkey is perceived in Washington has been a worryingly negative
    interpretation of events in Turkey. And I think this has something
    to do with how analysts based in Washington interpret events in Turkey.

    The part of it might be that they are not physically in Turkey so
    they are not fully aware of the true dynamics of developments in
    Turkey. Two years ago this wasn't the case, but I think over the last
    year, since Turkey has been discussing the presidential election
    and then the new [parliamentary] elections, the political tension
    in Turkey has increased, so I think the way Turkey is interpreted in
    Washington has also changed.

    Would you give specific examples of these perceptions?

    Well, there are some people in the United States who talk about a
    military coup being imminent in Turkey. You know, the next president,
    his identity, has become very much our primary concern over the last
    couple of months, and it is going to intensify over the next few
    weeks. If you live in Washington and listen to some of the analysis
    there, you would think that there was an imminent danger of shariah
    being established in Turkey. I am not convinced that this sort of
    line is really objective about what is going on in this country.

    What is going on in Turkey, in your opinion?

    In my opinion, Turkey is going through a period of normalization in
    many respects, becoming a more open, more democratic, more transparent
    society. It is now healthily debating difficult issues like the
    Armenian issue, the Kurdish issue, how to accommodate religion
    within a secular democratic system, how to treat people who are not
    necessarily of Turkish ethnic background but are Turkish citizens. I
    think Turkey is going through a healthy period. The economy is going
    extremely well. However, some macroeconomic issues have almost been
    taken for granted. A couple of years ago, you couldn't go to a bank
    and get a loan for a house for 20 years. People seem to forget that
    we had 80 percent inflation. I remember vividly when people would be
    exchanging dollars in the morning and switching back to lira in the
    afternoon because of a volatile exchange rate.

    For four-and-a-half years we have been enjoying macroeconomic stability
    and good growth. While Europe is growing about 1 percent a year,
    we have been enjoying an average of 6.5 - 7 percent growth.

    This is very impressive, and we are doing this in an environment when
    there is a major war at our border. And at the same time, we are really
    intensely discussing some of these issues that I have just mentioned.

    Do you think Americans who observe developments in Turkey are convinced
    that things are pretty normal or are they in a 'watch and see' mode?

    Most of them remain concerned. I was in a workshop a few weeks ago
    in Washington. We were discussing these things. That the Americans
    express concern about Turkey is natural because Turkey used to be a a
    flank country defending the southeastern corner of the alliance. Now
    Turkey is more independent and becoming a regional power. The current
    tensions between the United States and Turkey on some of the issues in
    the region are normal tensions between a global hegemony and a regional
    power that is reasserting itself. So we are now experiencing a period
    where both sides need to adjust to this new situation. The Americans
    need to come to terms with the fact that there is a different Turkey
    at hand; it is no longer just a flank country in the southeastern
    corner of NATO, but is a country in a central location.

    How serious are these 'tensions' you've just mentioned in the
    US-Turkish relationship?

    We need to try to ease the problems that are arising at the moment
    between us and the United States or us and the European Union, and
    help them to digest our new identity. We Turks have a terrible problem
    with communicating what we are doing. I am part of the generation of
    Turks that emphasizes "Communication, communication, communication"
    because we generally don't communicate well what we are doing. One of
    the reasons I joined the GMF is because it is an organization with
    a very strong European network, and our work is really about Europe
    and the United States. And we see Turkey as part of Europe. In our
    work we bring in speakers who help Turks concern.

    And we Turks, as [former US Ambassador to Turkey] Marc Grossman said,
    "don't have PR genes." We come from an Ottoman state tradition. We
    feel like we don't need to tell others what we are doing; the others
    should understand us naturally, but that's not the case. Especially
    with a country like the United States, which has to deal with almost
    200 countries on this planet, getting the attention of the US policy
    community or the US think tank community is a challenge. And Turkey
    should not assume that just by being Turkey or just by being located
    in this geography in itself will mean that there is going to be an
    interest in us. We shouldn't assume that the US always has a great
    interest in us. We should actually take our message to the United
    States in seminars, hold workshops with intellectuals who have direct
    contact with American counterparts and vice versa.

    What is the US point of view regarding Turkey's relations with Iran?

    In the United States right now the most important issue is Iran.

    Iraq, of course, is important, but the looming issue on the horizon
    is Iran. And when we talk about Iran, Turkey's relationship with its
    neighbors comes into question. In fact, the Turkish government has
    a foreign policy understanding that requires minimal problems with
    its neighbors. And over the last years, Turkey's relations both
    with Syria and with Iran have deepened; our trade has increased,
    our political dialogue has become deeper. I think in some quarters in
    Washington, this has been dealt with apprehension and concern. Turkey
    is also partly responsible for that perception taking shape because
    we have not been able to clearly communicate the intentions behind
    our foreign policy. But during the last six or seven months, there
    has been an effort to explain why Turkey is following the foreign
    policy it is following. That is actually not a source of concern but
    on the contrary, it is a development that should be welcomed by the
    United States.

    Why is that?

    This government's foreign policy has been largely inspired by
    Professor Ahmet Davutoðlu [who is the foreign policy advisor to the
    Turkish prime minister]. It is based on the understanding that Turkey
    should normalize its relations with its neighbors. And I think with
    the exception of Armenia, this policy has been successful. Iraq is a
    special case because we don't have an Iraqi state right now. With Iran
    this policy has been successful, with Russia it has been successful,
    with Syria it has been successful, and with Greece we now have good
    relations. I mean in general, this intellectual policy is a fresh and
    welcome departure from the old and narrow understanding of our foreign
    policy, which was "peace at home, peace abroad" which wasn't inspiring
    and didn't allow for a sophisticated outreach to our neighbors. One
    of the things that of course has come out from this is that Turkey
    has become now very influential and active in the Middle East. Turkey
    is one of those unique countries that can speak both to Israel and
    to Palestine, or can have good relations both with the United States
    but also with Saudi Arabia, Iran and many others. And I think this
    has been a welcome and fresh new development in our foreign policy,
    which is not always well understood in Washington.

    What would be bothersome for the United States in that regard?

    The primary concern we hear from our American colleagues is when there
    was an effort to isolate Syria two years ago, Turkey was increasing
    its trade and its contacts with Syria. There is also a timing issue
    here. Turkey's opening up to this region coincided with wanted to
    isolate these places. But Turkey cannot limit its foreign policy
    potential because other countries have an isolationist policy.

    Turkey would wish that this new policy would have occurred in another
    time period. But Turkey needs to trade with Syria, needs to trade
    with Iran, and Turkey wants to create an interdependency with these
    countries that would allow a moderating influence to be projected on
    these countries. We've been actually living through historic times
    because Arabs no longer perceive Turkey as the old Ottoman Empire.

    Now we are experiencing days when Turkish columnists are being
    translated into the Arab press and read widely, and Arab opinion pieces
    are translated in the Turkish press. Thus Turkey is reintegrating into
    the region, and that's not only in the interest of Turkey; it is also
    in the interest of our European and American partners. Because Turkey
    is in fact a security-producing and security-generating country,
    and can be and I think is an inspiration for many countries in
    the region. It may not be a perfect model because we have different
    historical experiences, but it can be an inspiration for many countries
    that aspire to becoming more open, more modern countries in which
    both democracy and Islam can cohabit.

    US officials themselves usually say they see Turkey as a model country
    in the Middle East. Do they reinforce this thought by asking Turkey to
    play an intermediary role in the region, for example, in the conflict
    with Iran?

    Turkey, of course, enjoys some channels of dialogue that our American
    friends sometimes don't have, especially with Iran. Turkey is not the
    only channel to Iran or Syria. Europeans also have channels of dialogue
    with them, but I think the difference Syria and Iran trust Turkey much
    more than many of the Europeans. Turkey is perceived as a country that
    has the ability to take independent decisions. The March 2003 decision
    not to allow US troops to invade Iraq from Turkish territory was a
    key turning point. And I think in that regard, our American colleagues
    from time to time do make use of Turkish diplomacy and Turkish access
    to Iranian and Syrian officials -- not only with Iran and Syria but
    also with other regional countries like Saudi Arabia and others.

    Sometimes it's been said that the biggest obstruction in the way of
    the US-Turkish relationship is the Armenian genocide resolution. Do
    you agree with that?

    I don't think the genocide resolution is the biggest problem between
    us. The biggest problem between us is the [terrorist Kurdistan Workers'
    Party] PKK issue and the future status of Iraq. That's our number
    one issue. The Armenian issue is a problematic one, something again
    where we need to tell our side of the story effectively. I heard some
    Turkish colleagues who said, "Let the resolution pass and get on with
    it." But I still tend to be on the side that the Armenian resolution
    is a wrong decision and shouldn't be passed by Congress.

    And I am optimistic that it actually will not pass this year.

    If it passes, do you think it will be disaster for bilateral relations?

    If it passes, I think Turkey will take some measures; it will counter
    this sort of affront, this inappropriate action by the Congress. I
    think in the end, especially given our more problematic relationship
    with the European Union, I think some sort of sobriety will set in
    and both Turkey and the United States will continue to find ways to
    work together, especially in Iraq. If the resolution does not pass, it
    will be a much more constructive and cordial working environment with
    the United States on Iraq than it might be if the resolution passes.

    What do you expect to happen regarding Turkey's concerns about
    developments in Iraq and the role of the United States?

    The United States is one of the primary determinants of what is going
    to happen in Iraq. Turkey has an interest in both communicating and
    influencing the events in Iraq. We have an Iraq with a very problematic
    situation. You have the presence of the PKK, which always has the
    potential to strike Turkish targets, kill Turkish soldiers.

    And then you have also the future status of Iraq, which may produce
    an entity, a Kurdish entity; I don't know in what form or shape. It
    could be a federal entity, it could be an independent one. Well,
    you could have decades-long internal civil war in Iraq. Turkey does
    not want that sort of instability to spread from Iraq into its own
    territory. The one thing that many people forget is that in 2003,
    when the war started, the last thing that people in the Southeast
    of Turkey wanted to hear was "war." In 2003, it was right around the
    time that Turkey was winning peace with its Kurdish citizens. Trade
    and investment had started to increase, tourism started to increase,
    with buses of western Turks traveling to Mardin, Urfa, Van and other
    places. And it was precisely the wrong time when the United States
    decided to invade Iraq because it complicated our own problems with
    our citizens of Kurdish background.

    Some US officials have mentioned that the United States will take
    radical steps against the PKK. What could those be?

    That could mean closure of some camps, the handing over of some of the
    PKK leadership. These are all nice things, and we have been hearing
    such promises for months now since the PKK coordinator Gen.

    Ralston [former retired NATO commander Joseph Ralston, who is the US
    envoy to coordinate efforts to fight the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK)]
    has been assigned, although we have yet to see the materialization
    of something meaningful. Some people think that Turkey is eager to
    make a military intervention into Iraq. This is not true. Turkey does
    not want to intervene in Iraq. We would like the Kurdish authorities
    involved in Iraq and for the Iraqi authorities in Baghdad to work
    in cooperation with the United States to deal with this issue. The
    PKK is a terrorist organization; it is listed as one by the United
    States. We expect the Iraqi authorities to deliver on what they have
    been saying to our leadership, but we need to see those things happen.

    ----------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------
    PROFILE Suat Kýnýklýoðlu

    Suat Kýnýklýoðlu has been the executive director of the German Marshall
    Fund of the United States' (GMF) new office in Ankara since 2005. He
    previously worked on Black Sea security and strategic issues as a
    transatlantic fellow with an organization in Washington, D.C. He
    came to the GMF from the Ankara Center for Turkish Policy (ANKAM),
    where he served as the center's director and editor of Insight Turkey,
    a quarterly publication on Turkish foreign policy issues.

    Before his tenure at ANKAM, Kýnýklýoðlu worked as a development
    officer responsible for Turkey, Georgia, and Azerbaijan at the
    Canadian International Development Agency, based in Ankara. Prior to
    that, he was a senior political and economic research officer at the
    Australian Embassy in Turkey. He holds the rank of division/liaison
    squadron commander in the Turkish Air Forces. His publications include
    "History in the Making: Transformation in Turkey "; "Kirkuk, Northern
    Iraq and the 'Grand Bargain'"; "Dink, Doves and Democracy"; "Mind Your
    Own Business, France" and "Spurned by the West, Turkey Looks Eastward."

    --Boundary_(ID_9uHajPKP0SCIkrM/9+ HWVQ)--
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