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MOSCOW SIGNALS SUPPORT FOR ARMENIAN POWER HANDOVER
By Emil Danielyan
Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
April 16 2007
With less than a month to go before Armenia's crucial parliamentary
elections, Russia has signaled its support for an anticipated handover
of power from Armenian President Robert Kocharian to newly appointed
Prime Minister Serge Sarkisian. In a series of early April visits to
Yerevan, senior Russian officials indicated Moscow's strong opposition
to regime change in the loyal South Caucasus state. The Russians
also plan to send a record-high number of election observers, in an
apparent bid to counter and/or water down Western criticism of the
Armenian authorities' handling of the May 12 vote.
Control of Armenia's next parliament is essential for the success of
Sarkisian's plans to succeed Kocharian after the latter completes
his second and final term in office in March 2008. His governing
Republican Party (HHK) is widely regarded as the election frontrunner
not so much because of its popularity as its vote-rigging capacity
that manifested itself during the previous legislative polls. Talk of
Sarkisian's presidential ambitions intensified after he was named to
replace Prime Minister Andranik Markarian, who died of a heart attack
on March 25. Some Russian media and pro-Kremlin analysts said that
Sarkisian is Moscow's preferred candidate for the Armenian presidency.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov effectively confirmed
this as he visited Yerevan on April 3. "The official position of
Russia coincides with the unofficial position of Russia," he told
journalists. Lavrov stressed the need for continuity in the Kocharian
administration's policies, which he said have proved beneficial for
Armenia. Russia wants to see a "continued movement in that direction,"
he said. "Russia, which traditionally plays an important role in
internal political processes in Armenia, has made it clear who it
has sided with," the Moscow daily Kommersant wrote on April 9.
Russia's First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov made it even clearer
during a separate visit to Armenia two days later. Ivanov said he
and Sarkisian had developed "not only good businesslike but also
personal relations" in their previous capacity as defense ministers
of the two countries. "The human capital which we developed in the
past few years is very useful and allows us to discuss many issues
in a straightforward and frank manner," he said at a news conference.
Sarkisian underlined the significance of Ivanov's trip by greeting
and bidding farewell to the Russian deputy prime minister at Yerevan
airport, despite his higher government rank. Russian backing has helped
him and Kocharian to keep the Armenian opposition at bay throughout
their nearly decade-long joint rule. It will also bode well for the
realization of his presidential ambitions, which seem to be approved
by Kocharian. The Armenian constitution bars Kocharian from seeking a
third five-year term. But he is clearly keen to remain in government
in some other capacity.
The administration of President Vladimir Putin has little reason
to be unhappy with Armenia's two most powerful men. After all,
they were instrumental in the signing in recent years of highly
controversial agreements that have given Moscow a near total control
over the Armenian energy sector. Sarkisian has personally negotiated
those deals in his capacity as co-chairman of a Russian-Armenian
inter-governmental commission on economic cooperation. He and
Kocharian have also bolstered the Russian presence in other sectors
of the Armenian economy such as telecommunication. In addition,
membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the
continued presence of Russian troops in Armenia remain key elements
of Yerevan's national security doctrine.
All of that has more than offset Yerevan's increased security links
with the West, including the launch of an individual partnership
action plan with NATO and the dispatch of Armenian troops to Kosovo
and Iraq. True, the Russians have covertly sponsored some pro-Russian
opposition groups in Armenia. But they seem to have done so in order
to hold the Kocharian-Sarkisian duo in check, rather than to cause
its downfall.
Moscow appears to be disinterested in regime change in Armenia also
because of its broader opposition to the democratization of the
political systems of this and other former Soviet republics. Two of
those states, Georgia and Ukraine, are now led by staunchly pro-Western
presidents as a result of democratic revolutions sparked by rigged
elections. Armenia could likewise have a less pro-Russian regime if
its current leaders hold a democratic election and run the risk of
losing power.
Incidentally, the first foreign visitor received by Sarkisian after
his April 4 appointment as prime minister was Vladimir Rushailo,
the Russian executive secretary of the Commonwealth of Independent
States. Rushailo arrived in Yerevan to discuss preparations for
the upcoming elections. After the talks he announced that the CIS
Secretariat plans to deploy some 200 election observers in Armenia,
far more than it did in the past. Unlike their counterparts from
the OSCE and the Council of Europe, CIS observers described the
previous Armenian parliamentary and presidential elections tainted
with widespread fraud as "free and fair." Their next verdict will
hardly be more negative. The drastic increase in the size of the CIS
observer mission, to be headed by Rushailo, is clearly aimed at giving
its statements greater credibility.
Russia also intends to seriously influence the findings of some
330 mostly Western observers that are due to monitor the Armenian
elections on behalf of the OSCE. Their opinion will be key to the
international legitimacy of the vote. As a leading OSCE member state,
Russia can contribute up to 10% of the organization's vote monitoring
missions. As Lavrov stated in Yerevan, Moscow, which has slammed the
OSCE for questioning the legitimacy of former Soviet governments,
will for the first time use its participation quota in full.
(168 Zham, April 12; Haykakan Zhamanak, April 10; Kommersant, April 9;
RFE/RL Armenia Report, April 3, April 5)
By Emil Danielyan
Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
April 16 2007
With less than a month to go before Armenia's crucial parliamentary
elections, Russia has signaled its support for an anticipated handover
of power from Armenian President Robert Kocharian to newly appointed
Prime Minister Serge Sarkisian. In a series of early April visits to
Yerevan, senior Russian officials indicated Moscow's strong opposition
to regime change in the loyal South Caucasus state. The Russians
also plan to send a record-high number of election observers, in an
apparent bid to counter and/or water down Western criticism of the
Armenian authorities' handling of the May 12 vote.
Control of Armenia's next parliament is essential for the success of
Sarkisian's plans to succeed Kocharian after the latter completes
his second and final term in office in March 2008. His governing
Republican Party (HHK) is widely regarded as the election frontrunner
not so much because of its popularity as its vote-rigging capacity
that manifested itself during the previous legislative polls. Talk of
Sarkisian's presidential ambitions intensified after he was named to
replace Prime Minister Andranik Markarian, who died of a heart attack
on March 25. Some Russian media and pro-Kremlin analysts said that
Sarkisian is Moscow's preferred candidate for the Armenian presidency.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov effectively confirmed
this as he visited Yerevan on April 3. "The official position of
Russia coincides with the unofficial position of Russia," he told
journalists. Lavrov stressed the need for continuity in the Kocharian
administration's policies, which he said have proved beneficial for
Armenia. Russia wants to see a "continued movement in that direction,"
he said. "Russia, which traditionally plays an important role in
internal political processes in Armenia, has made it clear who it
has sided with," the Moscow daily Kommersant wrote on April 9.
Russia's First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov made it even clearer
during a separate visit to Armenia two days later. Ivanov said he
and Sarkisian had developed "not only good businesslike but also
personal relations" in their previous capacity as defense ministers
of the two countries. "The human capital which we developed in the
past few years is very useful and allows us to discuss many issues
in a straightforward and frank manner," he said at a news conference.
Sarkisian underlined the significance of Ivanov's trip by greeting
and bidding farewell to the Russian deputy prime minister at Yerevan
airport, despite his higher government rank. Russian backing has helped
him and Kocharian to keep the Armenian opposition at bay throughout
their nearly decade-long joint rule. It will also bode well for the
realization of his presidential ambitions, which seem to be approved
by Kocharian. The Armenian constitution bars Kocharian from seeking a
third five-year term. But he is clearly keen to remain in government
in some other capacity.
The administration of President Vladimir Putin has little reason
to be unhappy with Armenia's two most powerful men. After all,
they were instrumental in the signing in recent years of highly
controversial agreements that have given Moscow a near total control
over the Armenian energy sector. Sarkisian has personally negotiated
those deals in his capacity as co-chairman of a Russian-Armenian
inter-governmental commission on economic cooperation. He and
Kocharian have also bolstered the Russian presence in other sectors
of the Armenian economy such as telecommunication. In addition,
membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the
continued presence of Russian troops in Armenia remain key elements
of Yerevan's national security doctrine.
All of that has more than offset Yerevan's increased security links
with the West, including the launch of an individual partnership
action plan with NATO and the dispatch of Armenian troops to Kosovo
and Iraq. True, the Russians have covertly sponsored some pro-Russian
opposition groups in Armenia. But they seem to have done so in order
to hold the Kocharian-Sarkisian duo in check, rather than to cause
its downfall.
Moscow appears to be disinterested in regime change in Armenia also
because of its broader opposition to the democratization of the
political systems of this and other former Soviet republics. Two of
those states, Georgia and Ukraine, are now led by staunchly pro-Western
presidents as a result of democratic revolutions sparked by rigged
elections. Armenia could likewise have a less pro-Russian regime if
its current leaders hold a democratic election and run the risk of
losing power.
Incidentally, the first foreign visitor received by Sarkisian after
his April 4 appointment as prime minister was Vladimir Rushailo,
the Russian executive secretary of the Commonwealth of Independent
States. Rushailo arrived in Yerevan to discuss preparations for
the upcoming elections. After the talks he announced that the CIS
Secretariat plans to deploy some 200 election observers in Armenia,
far more than it did in the past. Unlike their counterparts from
the OSCE and the Council of Europe, CIS observers described the
previous Armenian parliamentary and presidential elections tainted
with widespread fraud as "free and fair." Their next verdict will
hardly be more negative. The drastic increase in the size of the CIS
observer mission, to be headed by Rushailo, is clearly aimed at giving
its statements greater credibility.
Russia also intends to seriously influence the findings of some
330 mostly Western observers that are due to monitor the Armenian
elections on behalf of the OSCE. Their opinion will be key to the
international legitimacy of the vote. As a leading OSCE member state,
Russia can contribute up to 10% of the organization's vote monitoring
missions. As Lavrov stated in Yerevan, Moscow, which has slammed the
OSCE for questioning the legitimacy of former Soviet governments,
will for the first time use its participation quota in full.
(168 Zham, April 12; Haykakan Zhamanak, April 10; Kommersant, April 9;
RFE/RL Armenia Report, April 3, April 5)