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  • Political Tensions Increase As Turkish Presidential Elections Approa

    POLITICAL TENSIONS INCREASE AS TURKISH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS APPROACH
    By Kerem Kaya and Sinan Ikinci

    World Socialist Web Site, MI
    April 16 2007

    As presidential elections approach, Turkey's political tensions
    are continuing to intensify both domestically, between the Kemalist
    establishment and the moderate Islamist Justice and Development Party
    (AKP) government, as well as internationally, between the Turkish
    establishment and the Iraqi Kurds.

    The Turkish military is decisively leading both campaigns with support
    from the "unarmed forces," a euphemism invented to describe supporters
    of the military within influential business and political circles. The
    principal protagonists of these forces are Deniz Baykal of Republican
    People's Party (CHP), the main opposition leader, and the outgoing
    president Ahmet Necdet Sezer. It also includes the Kemalist Thought
    Association (ADD) and the Association for Supporting Modern Life
    (CYDD), which are both by-products of the events of February 28,
    1997, when the military intervened to oust a coalition government
    led by the Islamic-based Welfare Party.

    The head of ADD, Sener Eruygur, is a former general. Democratic
    Left Party (DSP), and the Social Democrat People's Party (SHP) also
    supported a march organized by the "unarmed forces" late last year.

    CHP has long been acting as the civilian spokesman of the Turkish
    military. In short, all the social democratic or "left-wing Kemalist"
    parties, are included.

    Less prominent members of this camp are the Turkish Industrialists'
    and Businessmen's Association (TUSIAD) and the Union of Chambers of
    Commerce (TTOBB). The Turkish Trade Union Confederation (Turk-Is)
    and the Revolutionary Trade Union Confederation (DISK) are also active
    together with Kemalist-Maoist Workers Party of Dogu Perincek.

    President Ahmet Necdet Sezer (who does not have a party affiliation)
    also sides frequently with the military against the government.

    It appears that the strategy of the military is to heighten tensions
    domestically while capitalizing on the deteriorating Kurdish situation
    in the east to increase pressure on the elected AKP government before
    the general elections currently set for November.

    In addition, the first round of parliamentary voting in the
    presidential elections is scheduled for April 27.

    The AKP government represents the moderate wing of political Islam in
    Turkey. It was elected on November 3, 2004, with 34 percent of the
    vote, a large enough margin to form a single party government. It
    lost some of its base after establishing close relationships with
    International Monetary Fund (IMF) and implementing far reaching
    austerity measures on behalf of the big business. Despite this, the
    government still enjoys a measure of public support partly due to its
    relative success in stabilizing the country's financial situation,
    after 30 years of uninterrupted high inflation. The latest polls
    show that the AKP enjoys the support of 25 to 30 percent of the
    electorate. This level of support makes it very difficult to topple
    an elected government via an outright military intervention and hence
    comes the critical role played by the "unarmed forces."

    A common feature of these forces, armed or otherwise, is their
    determination to whip up a nationalist mood throughout the country.

    In so doing they seek to exploit the international situation. The US
    aggression in Iraq has destabilized Turkey's neighbors and created
    an environment that the political establishment has used to spread
    chauvinist and nationalist sentiments. Similarly, the brushing aside
    of Turkey in the accession talks with the EU and the subsequent
    nationalist rhetoric from both sides-especially the use of Kurdish,
    Armenian and Cyprus questions by the EU as a means of pressure-played
    into the hands of the nationalists in Turkey.

    The Kurdish crisis

    There is growing social unrest in eastern Turkey within the
    predominantly Kurdish population. Social unrest in the region has
    intensified since the Semdinli events of November 9, 2005, when
    police intelligence officers (JIT) were caught in a provocative
    bombing campaign against the civilian population and General Yasar
    Buyukanit, the current chief of general staff, publicly praised one
    of the bombers.

    Last month, during the Kurdish New Year (Newroz) celebrations there
    were many banners supporting the PKK (Kurdish Workers Party-the Kurdish
    nationalist guerilla organisation) and pictures of Abdullah Ocalan,
    the former PKK leader currently jailed by Turkey-despite the ban on
    such Kurdish symbols. Since ending its 15-year long military campaign
    towards the end of the 1990s and fruitless attempts to curry favor
    with Turkish establishment, the PKK has now increased its military and
    political activity inside Turkey. In response, there are reports that
    Turkish military has drawn up a 250,000-strong contingency force in
    the southeast region to combat the PKK near the Iraqi border. Buyukanit
    said on Thursday that an all out offensive has started against PKK. On
    April 8, Kurdish rebels killed nine members of Turkish security forces.

    There is a growing threat that the Turkish army will invade northern
    Iraq in the coming days to clamp down on PKK forces in their Iraqi
    safe haven. As a result, tensions between Ankara, Washington and
    the Kurdish leaders in northern Iraq, namely Barzani and Talabani,
    have been growing over the last few months. Last month witnessed a
    harsh clash of words between Ankara and Kurdish leaders, particularly
    Barzani, the president of the Kurdish autonomous zone in northern Iraq.

    The high point in this campaign was a press conference by Chief of
    General Staff Buyukanit on Thursday attended by all military force
    commanders in uniform. He accused the EU of "inventing" minorities
    in Turkey, but made no direct criticism of the US. Buyukanit instead
    declared that a cross-border operation to northern Iraq was necessary
    and that the Turkish military was ready to move, but he emphasized
    that the go-ahead was a political decision. This provoked defiant
    responses from Iraqi Kurdish leaders, as well as conciliatory noises
    from Washington.

    Kemal Kerkuki, vice-president of Kurdish autonomous zone in northern
    Iraq, remarked that "a military operation on Kurdish regional soils
    would constitute a declaration of war directly against Iraq." He
    said that there was no basis for claims by Turkey that the PKK is
    receiving military and economic aid from the northern Iraqi government.

    This comes on top of Barzani's remarks in an interview made at the
    end of February but broadcast only recently in which he said that if
    Turkey interferes with Kurdish plans to attach the oil-rich Iraqi city
    of Kirkuk to the Kurdish autonomous zone, Iraq's Kurds would retaliate
    by intervening in southeast Turkey, where the PKK mainly operates.

    After Barzani's remarks Ankara sent an official ultimatum to the
    Iraqi government. Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdullah Gul said
    they will do "whatever is necessary" unless Baghdad responds "as
    expected." Spokesman for the ministry said that the ultimatum asks
    for border security and the capture of members of the PKK and their
    return to Turkey.

    After this Washington immediately stepped in. Having acknowledged
    that the PKK must be dealt with, US State Department spokesman Sean
    McCormack said this should not be done unilaterally by Turkey.

    Washington has also criticized Barzani for not being helpful in
    dampening down the crisis. Assistant secretary of state for European
    and Eurasian affairs Dan Fried went further and accused Barzani of
    being "unwise."

    In the past, Washington has issued harsher reactions against Turkish
    threats to undertake military intervention in northern Iraq. This time,
    however, they have clearly taken into account the fragile domestic
    political situation in Turkey due to the imminent presidential
    elections and the general elections later this year.

    Should the AKP government follow Buyukanit proposal and order a
    cross-border operation, it would lead to a break between the AKP and
    the US. If not, the AKP could be attacked for capitulating to Kurdish
    "separatism."

    The presidential election

    The crisis between Iraqi Kurds and Turkey could hardly come at a
    better time for the military. The military had exerted enormous
    pressure on the AKP government with regard to the election of the
    new president of Turkey. AKP leader and current prime minister Recep
    Tayyip Erdogan has long indicated his ambitions for the presidential
    seat. Now, the military is putting pressure on the AKP government to
    allow a cross-border military operation, thus pushing the AKP into
    a political mine field just before the presidential election.

    The president is elected by the parliament for a seven-year term in
    office and holds some important powers such as appointing rectors of
    universities, the members of the Higher Education Council, the members
    and the chairman of the state Supervisory Council, the members of the
    Constitutional Court and one-fourth of the members of the Council of
    State. He also appoints the Chief Public Prosecutor and the Deputy
    Chief Public Prosecutor of the Higher Court of Appeals, the members
    of the Military High Court of Appeals, the members of the Supreme
    Military Administrative Court and the members of the Supreme Council
    of Judges and Public Prosecutors. These are the strongholds of the
    Kemalist establishment and in a space of seven years with an Islamist
    President, Islamists could seize them all one by one.

    For his part, CHP leader Baykal chose to attack Erdogan personally,
    accusing him of referring to then PKK leader Ocalan as "Mr. Ocalan"
    on January 15, 2000, long before he became prime minister. The acronym
    "Mr" in Turkey is exclusively reserved for respected members of the
    society. Erdogan, on his part, managed to brush away this flimsy
    attack. Even though the claim went to court based on Article 215
    of Turkish Penal Code for the "crime" of "praising a crime and the
    criminal," Erdogan was soon acquitted of all charges.

    Other attempts are desperately being made. In particular, the idea of
    reinterpreting the constitution came to fore. It is being argued that
    two thirds of the parliamentary majority is required to "open" the
    session to elect the president. AKP currently holds 354 parliamentary
    seats and the presidential candidate cannot vote. By this logic,
    AKP would be short of 14 seats to elect the president outright. AKP
    argues that in 1989 during the election of 8th President Turgut Ozal,
    the session was opened with a majority below two thirds. Against this,
    CHP asserts that "a bad example cannot be the rule."

    The nationalism that has been deliberately whipped up since 2005 is now
    expected to play a decisive role in the decisions of the AKP. It has
    already produced an atmosphere of intimidation by dragging writers,
    translators, activists and other intellectuals into the courts, not
    to mention open political opponents of the state. The stage has now
    been set for a confrontation with AKP if Erdogan insists on himself
    or another Islamist taking the summit of the state power in Turkey.

    A similar episode occurred in 1997. After an ultimatum to weaken
    the religious training schools the military put pressure on the
    Islamist-led government to implement eight years of uninterrupted
    compulsory primary education. On May 1997 hundreds of thousands
    Islamists attended a huge demonstration in Istanbul as a display of
    power, and in the wake of this demonstration Dogu Ergil of Turkish
    Daily News wrote, "as the latest Sultanahmet demonstration proves,
    they can rally together and bring one million people onto the streets
    with a snap of the fingers." However this counter attack by Islamist
    forces backfired when the military and the "secularist" front used
    it as further proof of an immediate reactionary threat.

    It appears that AKP would like to avoid such a confrontation. This
    time, however, the Kemalist establishment organized a demonstration
    against the Islamist government. Saturday's "Republic Rally" organized
    by ADD and supported by CHP, DSP, IP, trade union federation Turk-Is,
    but also right-wing extremist MHP (Nationalist Movement Party,
    "Grey wolves"), managed to bring "hundreds of thousands" to the
    streets according to the organizers, mainly from middle-class and
    well educated layers. Some estimates put numbers at 100,000 to 200,000.

    This was a large demonstration by any measure but it came after two
    years of sustained campaigning against the government. Last Friday,
    president Sezer himself tacitly supported the campaign by declaring
    before military commanders, "Since the foundation of the Republic
    Turkey's political regime has never been under this much threat ...

    For the first time in history the fundamental values of the Republic
    has been questioned and both domestic and foreign forces seek Turkey
    to conform to the model of conservative Islam."

    In a thinly veiled warning against an AKP president, Sezer said, "The
    President represents the Republic's principles and constitution. In
    other words, these principles and constitution defines the red lines
    of the Turkish Republic's regime." Buyukanit at his press conference
    on Thursday said almost the same, "We hope that someone who truly
    respects the principles of the republic [becomes president], not
    someone who pretends to do so."

    After the demonstration, Erdogan did not appear unduly impressed and
    remarked calmly that he was "happy to see a peaceful demonstration
    like this in a democratic Turkey." In the Islamist media there were
    no signs of panic.

    In the face of growing pressure, Erdogan made a minor concession in
    November 2006 by saying, "I have no bet to become the president."

    However he ruled out the possibility of appointing someone outside of
    the parliament, "Selecting an external candidate for presidency is an
    example of helplessness. We will not be in such a helpless situation."

    Since then AKP has tried to keep a low profile and avoid any clash with
    the military. The party announced is would not select its presidential
    candidate until April 25-the day before the deadline-in order to
    limit controversy.

    The Kemalist establishment argues that if elected as president,
    the Islamists will usurp the regime and change the character of the
    state. There is a grain of truth in this; however, history shows that
    the interventionist methods currently promoted by the Kemalists have
    consistently strengthened the Islamic parties. After the 1980 military
    coup, Turgut Ozal came to power-a man with close links to political
    Islamist circles. After the February 28, 1997, military intervention,
    the Islamists swept to power with the AKP in the elections of 2002.

    The root cause of the rise of the Islamic parties is the betrayal
    of Stalinism and collapse of bourgeois nationalism in Turkey and
    internationally, which has created a huge political vacuum that is
    being exploited by the reactionary religious and ethnic nationalist
    political tendencies. In the parliamentary elections of 2002, more
    than ninety percent of all parliamentarians were voted out of office
    at a time when parliament was dominated by the Kemalist clique.

    The Kemalists represent the corrupt state bureaucracy, army and the
    traditional big banks and corporations, while the Islamists represent
    newer bourgeois layers who are no less ruthless, but keen to break up
    the established structures in order make their own enrichment easier.

    There is nothing progressive in either camp. The campaign of
    nationalism and repression by the Kemalists under the battle cry of
    secularism is in the final analysis directed against the democratic
    rights of the working class.

    http://www.wsws.org/articles/2007/apr2007/ turk-a16.shtml
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