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SPEAKING OF SITUATIONS THAT COULD GET OUT OF CONTROL
Posted by Moira Whelan
DemocracyArsenal.org, NY
Aug 7 2007
Now without taking sides in the debate as to whether or not Russia
has something against Georgian corn and potatoes and therefore may
or may not have decided to bomb some poor farmer's field, this does
not look good.
A walk down memory lane provided by Reuters (abridged here):
-- Georgia's uneasy post-Soviet relations become openly hostile
after the 2003 "Rose Revolution" which propels President Mikhail
Saakashvili to power. Saakashvili ... pursues close relations with
the United States.
-- Moscow and Tbilisi bicker over Georgia's restive breakaway regions
of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
--Moscow considers the United States is encroaching on its traditional
influence in Georgia and the Caucasus.
--Georgia is dependent on gas from Russia but this dependence will
decline in years to come when a BP-led pipeline from Azerbaijan to
Turkey opens.
-- Russia has banned imports of Georgian wine, fruit and even mineral
waters such as Borjomi, one of Georgia's biggest revenue earners.
-- Transport and trade links were cut after Georgia paraded Russian
military officers on TV who it said were spies, in September 2006.
Although some communications since resumed, there are still no direct
flights between the capitals.
Let's put this in the current context of US relations. I don't
think any Black Sea specialist would dispute that the region is
in some ways a powder keg, but would the United States really be
in a position to do anything about it? SHOULD the United States be
trying to do something about it. Afterall, the United States loves
democracy and therefore has some affinity from the break-away from our
former nemesis, Georgia. There are major challenges with Russia's oil
dominance. The United States has a major concern about the pipeline
that is going through Georgia, which is certainly complicated by the
ethnic challenges that exist in Odessa and Abkhazia, not to mention
the long-standing tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan. But now,
let's be realistic: what kind of brokerage power would the United
States have to assist in this situation? What could be realistically
brought to the table?
I'm sure Black Sea watchers will correct me, but it appears that
this is a situation in which the United States would take tremendous
interest, yet unlike the past, are there real opportunities that exist
to make a difference that come with being the world's superpower,
or will Europe's influence surpass ours, and is this a sign of the
times or just a regional reality?
Posted by Moira Whelan
DemocracyArsenal.org, NY
Aug 7 2007
Now without taking sides in the debate as to whether or not Russia
has something against Georgian corn and potatoes and therefore may
or may not have decided to bomb some poor farmer's field, this does
not look good.
A walk down memory lane provided by Reuters (abridged here):
-- Georgia's uneasy post-Soviet relations become openly hostile
after the 2003 "Rose Revolution" which propels President Mikhail
Saakashvili to power. Saakashvili ... pursues close relations with
the United States.
-- Moscow and Tbilisi bicker over Georgia's restive breakaway regions
of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
--Moscow considers the United States is encroaching on its traditional
influence in Georgia and the Caucasus.
--Georgia is dependent on gas from Russia but this dependence will
decline in years to come when a BP-led pipeline from Azerbaijan to
Turkey opens.
-- Russia has banned imports of Georgian wine, fruit and even mineral
waters such as Borjomi, one of Georgia's biggest revenue earners.
-- Transport and trade links were cut after Georgia paraded Russian
military officers on TV who it said were spies, in September 2006.
Although some communications since resumed, there are still no direct
flights between the capitals.
Let's put this in the current context of US relations. I don't
think any Black Sea specialist would dispute that the region is
in some ways a powder keg, but would the United States really be
in a position to do anything about it? SHOULD the United States be
trying to do something about it. Afterall, the United States loves
democracy and therefore has some affinity from the break-away from our
former nemesis, Georgia. There are major challenges with Russia's oil
dominance. The United States has a major concern about the pipeline
that is going through Georgia, which is certainly complicated by the
ethnic challenges that exist in Odessa and Abkhazia, not to mention
the long-standing tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan. But now,
let's be realistic: what kind of brokerage power would the United
States have to assist in this situation? What could be realistically
brought to the table?
I'm sure Black Sea watchers will correct me, but it appears that
this is a situation in which the United States would take tremendous
interest, yet unlike the past, are there real opportunities that exist
to make a difference that come with being the world's superpower,
or will Europe's influence surpass ours, and is this a sign of the
times or just a regional reality?