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CONSOLATION OF CHEATING
James Hakobyan
Lragir, Armenia
Dec 17 2007
The ruling elite and pro-government experts in Armenia have an
interesting peculiarity. They seem to be trying to notice what they
want and not what is there. More exactly, they are trying not to notice
what is undesirable, dangerous for Armenia, or is a challenge, to put
it in modern terms. The ruling elite and most pro-government experts
think if you fail to notice what is undesirable for you, it stops
existing. For instance, many were reluctant to notice that Baku-Ceyhan
was coming into being. Now the oil pipeline is already a fact. Then
they contemplated similarly on the railroad Kars-Akhalkalaki, while
the construction of the railroad has already been launched. When this
practice of overlooking fails to affect their course, the same elite
and experts start to persuade the public that even though the pipeline
has been built, soon problems will occur with its profitability.
The first argument that is offered in this connection is that
Azerbaijan will soon run out of oil. According to Armenian officials
and some political analysts, the Azerbaijani oil reserve will last
for a few more years, and Baky-Ceyhan will become heavily reliant
on the Kazakh oil, and since Kazakhstan is about to reach agreement
with Russia on exporting oil via this country, it appears that in
some years only air will be flowing through Baku-Ceyhan. In fact,
after this analysis every Armenian will take a cup of wine and drink
to air, happy with the idea that Azerbaijan will soon run out of oil
dollars. We'll see how rich everyone will be by that time. In the long
run, however, the reality is that the ruling elite and pro-government
experts in Armenia will boost sales of vodka.
Meanwhile, unfortunately, these forecasts will have no direct or
indirect influence on the reserves of the Azerbaijani oil. Nor will
they affect the policy of Kazakhstan regarding export of oil via Baku
or Russia.
The point is that if the oil reserves of Azerbaijan were so little,
hardly any major investment would be made in oil production in
this country. No matter how smart father and son Aliyevs may be,
they would have hardly cheated international investors and the
political godfathers of Baku-Ceyhan so easily, because they realize,
the father realized, the political consequences of this deception
for Azerbaijan. Besides, the information about the oil reserves
is strategic for not only the given country but also the western
companies which invested billions of dollars in this country.
Consequently, various information on oil reserves that forecast how
much oil is left is meant to mislead competitors. In other words, the
volume of oil reserves in Azerbaijan or any other oil producing country
in the world will hardly be known. The statements about reserves are
the result of competition and are far from being true facts.
As to Kazakhstan and export of oil through Baku-Ceyhan or via Russia,
the Armenian approach toward this remains at the level of Armenian
peculiarity. For whatever reason, it is perceived that Kazakhstan is
facing a choice. For whatever, reason we do not try to assume that
this country may use both opportunities to maintain its independence.
In other words, it uses the Azerbaijani pipeline to gain advantages
in negotiations with Russia and vice versa.
When we view the situation from this surface aspect, we see that the
state of our competitor, or competitors if we may say so, is not what
we describe for ourselves. Consequently, we are cheating ourselves.
Moreover, we do it under the veil of patriotism. In other words,
those who say that in reality Baku's affairs are not so bad, it is
immediately described as pessimistic, causing panic among people,
almost a traitor. The artificial layer of patriotism with which the
government has covered Armenia supposes overlooking everything that
is undesirable for the fatherland and compatriots, and if you notice,
you are suspected of provocation by noticing worrying things and
focusing the society on them. Either you are a traitor or you will
be declared a traitor after Azerbaijan runs out of oil.
Meanwhile, elementary logic prompts that in order to be ready to meet
challenges the citizens should be aware of the challenge instead of
feeding them with false reality and opportunistic analyses. It would be
the same if during a battle the command of one of the armies hid from
their soldiers out of patriotic intentions that the enemy is attacking
with tanks. We may imagine what the outcome of the battle will be if
the attacker has tanks, and the other side has no mines because they
have been told that the tanks of the enemy are out of order.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
James Hakobyan
Lragir, Armenia
Dec 17 2007
The ruling elite and pro-government experts in Armenia have an
interesting peculiarity. They seem to be trying to notice what they
want and not what is there. More exactly, they are trying not to notice
what is undesirable, dangerous for Armenia, or is a challenge, to put
it in modern terms. The ruling elite and most pro-government experts
think if you fail to notice what is undesirable for you, it stops
existing. For instance, many were reluctant to notice that Baku-Ceyhan
was coming into being. Now the oil pipeline is already a fact. Then
they contemplated similarly on the railroad Kars-Akhalkalaki, while
the construction of the railroad has already been launched. When this
practice of overlooking fails to affect their course, the same elite
and experts start to persuade the public that even though the pipeline
has been built, soon problems will occur with its profitability.
The first argument that is offered in this connection is that
Azerbaijan will soon run out of oil. According to Armenian officials
and some political analysts, the Azerbaijani oil reserve will last
for a few more years, and Baky-Ceyhan will become heavily reliant
on the Kazakh oil, and since Kazakhstan is about to reach agreement
with Russia on exporting oil via this country, it appears that in
some years only air will be flowing through Baku-Ceyhan. In fact,
after this analysis every Armenian will take a cup of wine and drink
to air, happy with the idea that Azerbaijan will soon run out of oil
dollars. We'll see how rich everyone will be by that time. In the long
run, however, the reality is that the ruling elite and pro-government
experts in Armenia will boost sales of vodka.
Meanwhile, unfortunately, these forecasts will have no direct or
indirect influence on the reserves of the Azerbaijani oil. Nor will
they affect the policy of Kazakhstan regarding export of oil via Baku
or Russia.
The point is that if the oil reserves of Azerbaijan were so little,
hardly any major investment would be made in oil production in
this country. No matter how smart father and son Aliyevs may be,
they would have hardly cheated international investors and the
political godfathers of Baku-Ceyhan so easily, because they realize,
the father realized, the political consequences of this deception
for Azerbaijan. Besides, the information about the oil reserves
is strategic for not only the given country but also the western
companies which invested billions of dollars in this country.
Consequently, various information on oil reserves that forecast how
much oil is left is meant to mislead competitors. In other words, the
volume of oil reserves in Azerbaijan or any other oil producing country
in the world will hardly be known. The statements about reserves are
the result of competition and are far from being true facts.
As to Kazakhstan and export of oil through Baku-Ceyhan or via Russia,
the Armenian approach toward this remains at the level of Armenian
peculiarity. For whatever reason, it is perceived that Kazakhstan is
facing a choice. For whatever, reason we do not try to assume that
this country may use both opportunities to maintain its independence.
In other words, it uses the Azerbaijani pipeline to gain advantages
in negotiations with Russia and vice versa.
When we view the situation from this surface aspect, we see that the
state of our competitor, or competitors if we may say so, is not what
we describe for ourselves. Consequently, we are cheating ourselves.
Moreover, we do it under the veil of patriotism. In other words,
those who say that in reality Baku's affairs are not so bad, it is
immediately described as pessimistic, causing panic among people,
almost a traitor. The artificial layer of patriotism with which the
government has covered Armenia supposes overlooking everything that
is undesirable for the fatherland and compatriots, and if you notice,
you are suspected of provocation by noticing worrying things and
focusing the society on them. Either you are a traitor or you will
be declared a traitor after Azerbaijan runs out of oil.
Meanwhile, elementary logic prompts that in order to be ready to meet
challenges the citizens should be aware of the challenge instead of
feeding them with false reality and opportunistic analyses. It would be
the same if during a battle the command of one of the armies hid from
their soldiers out of patriotic intentions that the enemy is attacking
with tanks. We may imagine what the outcome of the battle will be if
the attacker has tanks, and the other side has no mines because they
have been told that the tanks of the enemy are out of order.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress