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A MIDDLE EAST STUDY TOUR: PERSPECTIVES FROM TURKEY
Washington Institute for Near East Policy, DC
Dec 19 2007
PolicyWatch #1322: Special Forum Report
Featuring Soner Cagaptay
Upon returning from the latest Washington Institute Study Tour to the
Middle East, senior fellow Soner Cagaptay discussed his findings and
impressions at a special Institute Policy Forum. The following is his
own summary of his remarks at the forum. Senior fellow David Makovsky
addressed the forum as well, discussing his impressions from Amman,
Jerusalem, Ramallah, and Tel Aviv; a summary of his remarks will be
published separately.
A group of Institute trustees and fellows recently visited Turkey,
meeting with policymakers, scholars, journalists, and community
leaders. A key finding of the delegation was that Turkish foreign
policy seems to be settling into a new pattern -- one friendly to
the United States, Syria, and Iran.
Booming Economy and the PKK
The two main topics in Turkey today are the booming economy and
worries about the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The political
stability provided by the ruling Justice and Development Party
(AKP), which came to power in 2002, has resulted in a notably
strong economic growth. As a result, Turkey now benefits from an
improved European-style infrastructure, a dynamic private sector,
and a vibrant middle class. The country's major businesses, most of
which are secular, have benefited significantly from the economic
growth and are generally supportive of the AKP, although some seem
to disagree with the party's social and cultural agenda.
The PKK, on the other hand, trumps all other issues in Turkey.
Although Turkey witnessed significant political tensions earlier
this year over the issue of secularism and religion in politics,
such tensions seem suppressed now in light of the recent PKK
attacks. In fact, it can be said that the terror issue and the debate
over secularism are on opposite cycles: when the PKK issue peaks,
the debate over secularism dips, and vice versa. It should be noted,
however, that while the debate over secularism is on the back burner
now, it is very much alive.
Three-Dimensional Foreign Policy: The United States, Iran, and Syria
A two dimensional picture of Turkish foreign policy shows either
strong ties between Turkey and the United States and Israel, or
strong ties between Turkey and Syria and Iran. A three dimensional
perspective, however, shows the many layers of Turkish foreign policy
simultaneously; the ongoing transformation of Turkish foreign policy
towards the Middle East since 2002 seems to have now settled on a
new plateau.
There is a gap between reality and perception in Turkey. Turkey and
the United States have an ongoing, strong cooperation on a wide array
of issues such as Afghanistan and Iraq. However, the public is not
aware of such cooperation or why it is in Turkey's interests. This
is where the AKP government could help by using the right rhetoric to
bridge the gap between reality and perception, explaining to the Turks
why it is in Turkey's interests to collaborate with the United States.
It should be noted that during its meetings, the delegation saw
challenges to the close cooperation between the United States and
Turkey. House Resolution 106, also known as the Armenian Genocide
Resolution (AGR), seems to have added to the resentment against the
United States. In fact, the issue was raised in every delagation
meeting with Turkish counterparts. More generally, popular approval
of the United States is at its all-time low and anti-Americanism is
laying deep roots throughout Turkey.
The Turkish-Israeli strategic partnership remains strong. However,
despite its history as a country with no potent traditions of
anti-Semitism, Turkey is now witnessing emerging tensions.
While Turkey has good cooperation with the United States and good ties
with Israel, it also has good ties to Iran and a powerful cooperation
with Syria. Since 2002, Iran and Syria have been actively cooperating
with Turkey against the PKK, which is the main reason why the Turkish
public has warmed up to these two countries. Iran has taken advantage
of U.S. inactivity in northern Iraq to such a degree that when an
American official shows support for Turkey's concerns and promises
future action against the PKK, Iran actually bombs PKK camps in
northern Iraq, boosting the popularity of Iranian President Mahmoud
Ahmadinezhad.
Attitudes toward Syria in Ankara are also quite positive. There is a
wide consensus among Turkish policymakers that Syria is a reasonable
country that should be brought into the international sphere with
Turkey's help. Regrading Iran, there seems to be an emerging consensus
in Ankara that while some aspects of Iran's policy -- specifically its
nucleaer policy -- are problematic, Turkish-Iranian relations have to
be nurtured and maintained. Two issues that cause the most divergence
among policymakers in Ankara are Hamas and Hizballah. Opposition
parties and secular Turks criticize the AKP's continuing contacts with
Hamas, and call both Hamas and Hizballah "terrorist groups period."
PKK: Challege and Opportunity for Washington
The main challenge to the U.S.-Turkish relationship is the PKK issue;
however, the PKK also provides the U.S. government with a great
opportunity. U.S. assistance to Turkey to combat the PKK in northern
Iraq will move public opinion favorably toward the United States,
while preventing Turkey's slide towards Iran and Syria. The current
military and intelligence cooperation between the two countries helps,
but it has come in the winter months when the PKK goes into hibernation
in the high mountains of northern Iraq. Unless the cooperation
continues into the spring when the PKK typically resumes a higher
level of activity, the cooperation will not have its full potential
impact in reversing anti-Americanism in Turkey. Only persistent and
consistent U.S. assistance to Turkey against the PKK, into the next
year and beyond, will help reverse the tide of anti-Americanism in
the country. In this regard, recent U.S.-Turkish cooperation against
the PKK, with the U.S. providing real-time satelite intelligence
to Turkey on the PKK presence in northern Iraq, has been a welcome
development and was noted in all meetings of the delegation.
Meanwhile, however, the United States government should exercise
caution in defining its policies towards the current measures
implemented by the AKP government. The AKP seems to be on the brink of
opening up political avenues to deal with the PKK, including a possible
amnesty for PKK members. However, there is a high chance that through
the course of the political process, the PKK may resort to violence,
as terrorist groups often do when they feel their demands are not being
met through negotiations. If the U.S. government were to be seen as
supportive of the political process, it would suffer significantly from
the failure of such process or from intermittent PKK violence. That
is why Washington should exercise caution and allow the Turks to deal
with the PKK inside Turkey, while continuing to provide military and
intelligence assistance for its struggle against the PKK in Iraq.
Soner Cagaptay is a senior fellow and director of the Turkish Research
Program at The Washington Institute.
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/tem plateC05.php?CID=2698
Washington Institute for Near East Policy, DC
Dec 19 2007
PolicyWatch #1322: Special Forum Report
Featuring Soner Cagaptay
Upon returning from the latest Washington Institute Study Tour to the
Middle East, senior fellow Soner Cagaptay discussed his findings and
impressions at a special Institute Policy Forum. The following is his
own summary of his remarks at the forum. Senior fellow David Makovsky
addressed the forum as well, discussing his impressions from Amman,
Jerusalem, Ramallah, and Tel Aviv; a summary of his remarks will be
published separately.
A group of Institute trustees and fellows recently visited Turkey,
meeting with policymakers, scholars, journalists, and community
leaders. A key finding of the delegation was that Turkish foreign
policy seems to be settling into a new pattern -- one friendly to
the United States, Syria, and Iran.
Booming Economy and the PKK
The two main topics in Turkey today are the booming economy and
worries about the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The political
stability provided by the ruling Justice and Development Party
(AKP), which came to power in 2002, has resulted in a notably
strong economic growth. As a result, Turkey now benefits from an
improved European-style infrastructure, a dynamic private sector,
and a vibrant middle class. The country's major businesses, most of
which are secular, have benefited significantly from the economic
growth and are generally supportive of the AKP, although some seem
to disagree with the party's social and cultural agenda.
The PKK, on the other hand, trumps all other issues in Turkey.
Although Turkey witnessed significant political tensions earlier
this year over the issue of secularism and religion in politics,
such tensions seem suppressed now in light of the recent PKK
attacks. In fact, it can be said that the terror issue and the debate
over secularism are on opposite cycles: when the PKK issue peaks,
the debate over secularism dips, and vice versa. It should be noted,
however, that while the debate over secularism is on the back burner
now, it is very much alive.
Three-Dimensional Foreign Policy: The United States, Iran, and Syria
A two dimensional picture of Turkish foreign policy shows either
strong ties between Turkey and the United States and Israel, or
strong ties between Turkey and Syria and Iran. A three dimensional
perspective, however, shows the many layers of Turkish foreign policy
simultaneously; the ongoing transformation of Turkish foreign policy
towards the Middle East since 2002 seems to have now settled on a
new plateau.
There is a gap between reality and perception in Turkey. Turkey and
the United States have an ongoing, strong cooperation on a wide array
of issues such as Afghanistan and Iraq. However, the public is not
aware of such cooperation or why it is in Turkey's interests. This
is where the AKP government could help by using the right rhetoric to
bridge the gap between reality and perception, explaining to the Turks
why it is in Turkey's interests to collaborate with the United States.
It should be noted that during its meetings, the delegation saw
challenges to the close cooperation between the United States and
Turkey. House Resolution 106, also known as the Armenian Genocide
Resolution (AGR), seems to have added to the resentment against the
United States. In fact, the issue was raised in every delagation
meeting with Turkish counterparts. More generally, popular approval
of the United States is at its all-time low and anti-Americanism is
laying deep roots throughout Turkey.
The Turkish-Israeli strategic partnership remains strong. However,
despite its history as a country with no potent traditions of
anti-Semitism, Turkey is now witnessing emerging tensions.
While Turkey has good cooperation with the United States and good ties
with Israel, it also has good ties to Iran and a powerful cooperation
with Syria. Since 2002, Iran and Syria have been actively cooperating
with Turkey against the PKK, which is the main reason why the Turkish
public has warmed up to these two countries. Iran has taken advantage
of U.S. inactivity in northern Iraq to such a degree that when an
American official shows support for Turkey's concerns and promises
future action against the PKK, Iran actually bombs PKK camps in
northern Iraq, boosting the popularity of Iranian President Mahmoud
Ahmadinezhad.
Attitudes toward Syria in Ankara are also quite positive. There is a
wide consensus among Turkish policymakers that Syria is a reasonable
country that should be brought into the international sphere with
Turkey's help. Regrading Iran, there seems to be an emerging consensus
in Ankara that while some aspects of Iran's policy -- specifically its
nucleaer policy -- are problematic, Turkish-Iranian relations have to
be nurtured and maintained. Two issues that cause the most divergence
among policymakers in Ankara are Hamas and Hizballah. Opposition
parties and secular Turks criticize the AKP's continuing contacts with
Hamas, and call both Hamas and Hizballah "terrorist groups period."
PKK: Challege and Opportunity for Washington
The main challenge to the U.S.-Turkish relationship is the PKK issue;
however, the PKK also provides the U.S. government with a great
opportunity. U.S. assistance to Turkey to combat the PKK in northern
Iraq will move public opinion favorably toward the United States,
while preventing Turkey's slide towards Iran and Syria. The current
military and intelligence cooperation between the two countries helps,
but it has come in the winter months when the PKK goes into hibernation
in the high mountains of northern Iraq. Unless the cooperation
continues into the spring when the PKK typically resumes a higher
level of activity, the cooperation will not have its full potential
impact in reversing anti-Americanism in Turkey. Only persistent and
consistent U.S. assistance to Turkey against the PKK, into the next
year and beyond, will help reverse the tide of anti-Americanism in
the country. In this regard, recent U.S.-Turkish cooperation against
the PKK, with the U.S. providing real-time satelite intelligence
to Turkey on the PKK presence in northern Iraq, has been a welcome
development and was noted in all meetings of the delegation.
Meanwhile, however, the United States government should exercise
caution in defining its policies towards the current measures
implemented by the AKP government. The AKP seems to be on the brink of
opening up political avenues to deal with the PKK, including a possible
amnesty for PKK members. However, there is a high chance that through
the course of the political process, the PKK may resort to violence,
as terrorist groups often do when they feel their demands are not being
met through negotiations. If the U.S. government were to be seen as
supportive of the political process, it would suffer significantly from
the failure of such process or from intermittent PKK violence. That
is why Washington should exercise caution and allow the Turks to deal
with the PKK inside Turkey, while continuing to provide military and
intelligence assistance for its struggle against the PKK in Iraq.
Soner Cagaptay is a senior fellow and director of the Turkish Research
Program at The Washington Institute.
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/tem plateC05.php?CID=2698