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What the Papers Say Part A (Russia)
December 26, 2007 Wednesday
IS ARMENIA HEADING FOR A COLOR REVOLUTION?
by Alexei Vasilivetsky
An update on the political situation in Armenia; Armenia will have a
new president next year. Similar situations elsewhere in the former
Soviet Union have led to coups, later described as "color
revolutions." However, Armenian political analysts are confident that
the Georgia scenario cannot be repeated in Armenia.
Armenia will have a new president next year. Robert Kocharian is
approaching the end of his second term, and the law does not permit
him to seek re-election. Similar situations elsewhere in the former
Soviet Union have led to coups, later described as "color
revolutions." The closest example is Georgia, with its Rose
Revolution. However, Armenian political analysts are confident that
the Tbilisi scenario cannot be repeated in Yerevan.
Political analyst Alexander Iskanderian: "These elections will be
very interesting. The main contenders will be Serge Sarkisian, the
current prime minister, and Levon Ter-Petrosian, former president.
These two are direct opposites of each other in many respects, even
their work styles. Sarkisian is more inclined to work quietly,
non-publicly, within the state bureaucracy, while Ter-Petrosian has
extensive experience as a public politician. Sarkisian will be
supported by part of the state bureaucracy, and state-affiliated
corporations. But Ter-Petrosian also has some substantial and
long-standing allies. Finally, there's a fundamental aspect in which
Armenia differs from other post-Soviet republics. Our politicians
cannot be categorized as pro-Russian or anti-Russian. Armenia has no
alternative to an alliance with Russia. I can't imagine a
Saakashvili-Shevardnadze scenario happening here."
Note that the West's role in Armenian politics isn't as noticeable as
in adjacent Trans-Caucasus states. There are at least two reasons for
this. The West could only gain signficant influence in Armenia if two
Gordian knots are untied: the Nagorno-Karabakh problem and the
stalemate in relations with Turkey. The West in general, and the
United States in particular, are not enthusiastic about helping
Yerevan to solve these problems.
The Nagorno-Karabakh situation is straightforward enough. The United
States has a far greater geopolitical interest in an alliance with
Azerbaijan. It's hardly surprising that rumors of an
American-directed "velvet coup" in Yerevan raised apprehensions in
Azerbaijan: what about us? In other words, Western nations will have
to promise their protege support in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Azerbaijan holds a key place in the West's energy strategy; the
Americans and their allies aren't about to quarrel with Baku.
Now let's look at Turkey. Armenia and Turkey still haven't
established diplomatic relations, and the border remains closed. The
United States isn't keen to act as mediator between these two
countries either. And if Armenia's new administration faces American
demands for a drastic policy change here, relations with Iran would
become a problem. At present, Yerevan and Tehran are cooperating
successfully in a number of areas: a gas pipeline from Iran is under
construction, and Iran has become a transport corridor for Armenia.
Can the United States offer Armenia any alternative to Iranian gas?
Surely not energy from Azerbaijan.
In recent years, Russian companies have gained a secure foothold in
key sectors of the Armenian economy - including the energy sector.
Whether Armenian politicians like it or not, they simply have no
alternative to the Russian presence.
Stepan Safarian from the Heritage party (part of the ruling
coalition) maintains that even if Ter-Petrosian wins the election,
there won't be any substantial shifts in Russian-Armenian relations.
Safarian told us: "Don't forget that Ter-Petrosian was president when
Armenia and Russia signed their friendship treaty, and the military
cooperation treaty. And the situation is even less likely to change
if Sarkisian wins - he's viewed as committed to continuing
Kocharian's policy course."
However, all this doesn't rule out the possibility of some surprises
in the Armenian election.
Alexander Iskanderian: "The election race hasn't really started yet.
In Armenia, the losers tend to challenge election outcomes and hold
protest rallies. Besides, relations between Sarkisian and Kocharian
aren't as straightforward as they may seem. Yes, Sarkesian could be
described as a successor - but not in the sense of being chosen by
Kocharian himself. There is also an element of political rivalry in
their relationship. In the latest parliamentary elections,
Sarkisian's Republican party won the most seats, while the Prosperous
Armenia party, founded by Kocharian, got only 15% of the vote. So the
suspense will be maintained right up until the end of the
presidential race - nothing is predetermined."
Source: Izvestia, December 26, 2007, p. 6
Translated by Elena Leonova
December 26, 2007 Wednesday
IS ARMENIA HEADING FOR A COLOR REVOLUTION?
by Alexei Vasilivetsky
An update on the political situation in Armenia; Armenia will have a
new president next year. Similar situations elsewhere in the former
Soviet Union have led to coups, later described as "color
revolutions." However, Armenian political analysts are confident that
the Georgia scenario cannot be repeated in Armenia.
Armenia will have a new president next year. Robert Kocharian is
approaching the end of his second term, and the law does not permit
him to seek re-election. Similar situations elsewhere in the former
Soviet Union have led to coups, later described as "color
revolutions." The closest example is Georgia, with its Rose
Revolution. However, Armenian political analysts are confident that
the Tbilisi scenario cannot be repeated in Yerevan.
Political analyst Alexander Iskanderian: "These elections will be
very interesting. The main contenders will be Serge Sarkisian, the
current prime minister, and Levon Ter-Petrosian, former president.
These two are direct opposites of each other in many respects, even
their work styles. Sarkisian is more inclined to work quietly,
non-publicly, within the state bureaucracy, while Ter-Petrosian has
extensive experience as a public politician. Sarkisian will be
supported by part of the state bureaucracy, and state-affiliated
corporations. But Ter-Petrosian also has some substantial and
long-standing allies. Finally, there's a fundamental aspect in which
Armenia differs from other post-Soviet republics. Our politicians
cannot be categorized as pro-Russian or anti-Russian. Armenia has no
alternative to an alliance with Russia. I can't imagine a
Saakashvili-Shevardnadze scenario happening here."
Note that the West's role in Armenian politics isn't as noticeable as
in adjacent Trans-Caucasus states. There are at least two reasons for
this. The West could only gain signficant influence in Armenia if two
Gordian knots are untied: the Nagorno-Karabakh problem and the
stalemate in relations with Turkey. The West in general, and the
United States in particular, are not enthusiastic about helping
Yerevan to solve these problems.
The Nagorno-Karabakh situation is straightforward enough. The United
States has a far greater geopolitical interest in an alliance with
Azerbaijan. It's hardly surprising that rumors of an
American-directed "velvet coup" in Yerevan raised apprehensions in
Azerbaijan: what about us? In other words, Western nations will have
to promise their protege support in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Azerbaijan holds a key place in the West's energy strategy; the
Americans and their allies aren't about to quarrel with Baku.
Now let's look at Turkey. Armenia and Turkey still haven't
established diplomatic relations, and the border remains closed. The
United States isn't keen to act as mediator between these two
countries either. And if Armenia's new administration faces American
demands for a drastic policy change here, relations with Iran would
become a problem. At present, Yerevan and Tehran are cooperating
successfully in a number of areas: a gas pipeline from Iran is under
construction, and Iran has become a transport corridor for Armenia.
Can the United States offer Armenia any alternative to Iranian gas?
Surely not energy from Azerbaijan.
In recent years, Russian companies have gained a secure foothold in
key sectors of the Armenian economy - including the energy sector.
Whether Armenian politicians like it or not, they simply have no
alternative to the Russian presence.
Stepan Safarian from the Heritage party (part of the ruling
coalition) maintains that even if Ter-Petrosian wins the election,
there won't be any substantial shifts in Russian-Armenian relations.
Safarian told us: "Don't forget that Ter-Petrosian was president when
Armenia and Russia signed their friendship treaty, and the military
cooperation treaty. And the situation is even less likely to change
if Sarkisian wins - he's viewed as committed to continuing
Kocharian's policy course."
However, all this doesn't rule out the possibility of some surprises
in the Armenian election.
Alexander Iskanderian: "The election race hasn't really started yet.
In Armenia, the losers tend to challenge election outcomes and hold
protest rallies. Besides, relations between Sarkisian and Kocharian
aren't as straightforward as they may seem. Yes, Sarkesian could be
described as a successor - but not in the sense of being chosen by
Kocharian himself. There is also an element of political rivalry in
their relationship. In the latest parliamentary elections,
Sarkisian's Republican party won the most seats, while the Prosperous
Armenia party, founded by Kocharian, got only 15% of the vote. So the
suspense will be maintained right up until the end of the
presidential race - nothing is predetermined."
Source: Izvestia, December 26, 2007, p. 6
Translated by Elena Leonova