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Hayots Ashkharh, Yerevan,
17 Jan 2007, p 4
Opening of the Armenian-Turkish border is the regional key for the
USA
by Vardan Grigoryan
Recent steps of the US Republican administration demonstrate that
George Bush and his political team are going to implement new
strategy to control oil fields in the Near and Middle East via a
policy of regional centres.
During the cold war, Israel and Turkey used to play such a role for
the USA. But today it is clear that the USA is concerned about
searching not global diplomacy tools but new tools that will ensure
regional balance. The first of them is northern Iraq, the area close
to the Iranian-Turkish border, which plays a sort of unique "roof"
for the Arab world rich of oil.
The second one is the clash of Russia-Turkey-Iran interests and the
Armenian factor, a key to control the South Caucasus which is the
main part of the Europe-Middle East energy corridor. Political
experts have been speaking about the simultaneous fulfilment of the
USA's Kurdistan-Karabakh programme for a while. For this reason, it
is not accidental that Turkey describes the latest attempts of the
USA to determine the future of Kurdistan as a vital issue, as a
programme for the establishment of a "second Karabakh".
To prevent this from happening, Turkey is trying to strengthen its
positions in the South Caucasus making use of Russian-US
disagreements in the region.
The deepening of the US-Turkish disagreements manifests itself from
Iraq to the South Caucasus where the two sides are trying to act
according to the logic of an "existing fact". Today the USA, Turkey
and Russia each have one reliable partner in the region: Georgia for
the USA, Azerbaijan for Turkey and Armenia for Russia. In these
conditions, the USA should settle the problem of Armenia's blockade
[by Turkey] as soon as possible in order to finally remove Russia
from the region and at the same time restrict Turkey's influence in
the region.
Having strengthened itself in Georgia and Armenia, the USA may
dictate its will to everybody in the region. For this reason, the
recognition of the Armenian genocide by the USA has been put forward.
Moreover, Jewish lobbyists explain to Turkish officials, who often
visit Washington, that currently the opening of the Armenian ground
border is the only "price" for avoiding the recognition of the
Armenian genocide. It turns out that over the next months Turkey
should make a choice between "the least of evils". It seems that the
way out is clear and Turkey will open the Armenian border as soon as
possible trying to achieve that Armenia agree to one of its known
conditions [not to promote the recognition of the Armenian genocide].
We think that Turkey will not give up to the USA's dictate. On the
contrary, it will try to create an illusion that steps are being made
on opening the border, and via direct negotiations with Armenia will
try to avert the adoption of the resolution on the Armenian genocide
in the US Congress. On the other hand, it may start secret talks with
Russia, thus, making Moscow, not Washington a mediator in the
Armenian-Turkish relations.
At the same time, understanding the imminence of the strengthening of
the US positions in the region, Armenia should do everything possible
to form a Russian-US consensus to guarantee its security.
17 Jan 2007, p 4
Opening of the Armenian-Turkish border is the regional key for the
USA
by Vardan Grigoryan
Recent steps of the US Republican administration demonstrate that
George Bush and his political team are going to implement new
strategy to control oil fields in the Near and Middle East via a
policy of regional centres.
During the cold war, Israel and Turkey used to play such a role for
the USA. But today it is clear that the USA is concerned about
searching not global diplomacy tools but new tools that will ensure
regional balance. The first of them is northern Iraq, the area close
to the Iranian-Turkish border, which plays a sort of unique "roof"
for the Arab world rich of oil.
The second one is the clash of Russia-Turkey-Iran interests and the
Armenian factor, a key to control the South Caucasus which is the
main part of the Europe-Middle East energy corridor. Political
experts have been speaking about the simultaneous fulfilment of the
USA's Kurdistan-Karabakh programme for a while. For this reason, it
is not accidental that Turkey describes the latest attempts of the
USA to determine the future of Kurdistan as a vital issue, as a
programme for the establishment of a "second Karabakh".
To prevent this from happening, Turkey is trying to strengthen its
positions in the South Caucasus making use of Russian-US
disagreements in the region.
The deepening of the US-Turkish disagreements manifests itself from
Iraq to the South Caucasus where the two sides are trying to act
according to the logic of an "existing fact". Today the USA, Turkey
and Russia each have one reliable partner in the region: Georgia for
the USA, Azerbaijan for Turkey and Armenia for Russia. In these
conditions, the USA should settle the problem of Armenia's blockade
[by Turkey] as soon as possible in order to finally remove Russia
from the region and at the same time restrict Turkey's influence in
the region.
Having strengthened itself in Georgia and Armenia, the USA may
dictate its will to everybody in the region. For this reason, the
recognition of the Armenian genocide by the USA has been put forward.
Moreover, Jewish lobbyists explain to Turkish officials, who often
visit Washington, that currently the opening of the Armenian ground
border is the only "price" for avoiding the recognition of the
Armenian genocide. It turns out that over the next months Turkey
should make a choice between "the least of evils". It seems that the
way out is clear and Turkey will open the Armenian border as soon as
possible trying to achieve that Armenia agree to one of its known
conditions [not to promote the recognition of the Armenian genocide].
We think that Turkey will not give up to the USA's dictate. On the
contrary, it will try to create an illusion that steps are being made
on opening the border, and via direct negotiations with Armenia will
try to avert the adoption of the resolution on the Armenian genocide
in the US Congress. On the other hand, it may start secret talks with
Russia, thus, making Moscow, not Washington a mediator in the
Armenian-Turkish relations.
At the same time, understanding the imminence of the strengthening of
the US positions in the region, Armenia should do everything possible
to form a Russian-US consensus to guarantee its security.