Tweet
PRESS RELEASE
Armenian Center for National and International Studies
75 Yerznkian Street
Yerevan 0033, Armenia
Tel: (+374 - 10) 52.87.80 or 27.48.18
Fax: (+374 - 10) 52.48.46
Email: [email protected] or [email protected]
Website: www.acnis.am
June 30, 2007
ACNIS Examines Regional Security, US-Iran Relations
Yerevan--The Armenian Center for National and International Studies
(ACNIS) today initiated a foreign policy discussion entitled "The
Challenges of Regional Security: Iran, the United States, and
Armenia." With an eye on the continued downturn in relations between
the United States and Iran, this gathering of state and political
figures, leading analysts, policy specialists, media representatives,
and officials from the US and Iranian embassies analyzed the potential
conflicts of interest, far-reaching miscalculations, and structural
pitfalls this standoff presents. The conference considered threats to
both macro- and micro-regional forces, including Armenia. Various
scenarios, possible solutions, and plans of action were presented
throughout the day.
The day's agenda opened with remarks by Raffi K. Hovannisian, ACNIS
founder and newly-elected Member of Parliament. "It is our
professional as well as civic duty to examine and elucidate, against
the background of likely developments, the issues that directly affect
Armenia's security," Hovannisian said, adding that the Republic needs
to reveal past and putative omissions within its foreign and domestic
policy framework with the aim of defending its national interest and
finding ways and means for surmounting current geopolitical
challenges. "A strategic mutual reassessment is in order for two very
important nations--the United States and Iran--whose ultimate meeting
of minds is crucial for regional security and world peace in the new
era. Armenia, from whose vital interests this flows, must be prepared
in every way to facilitate such a strategic imperative," Hovannisian
suggested.
The roundtable's morning session focused on the dangers and risks not
only for Armenia but for the entire region if differences between the
United States and Iran are resolved militarily. The first speaker was
analyst Richard Giragosian of Jane's Information Group. Giragosian
addressed the key factors of discord and possible cooperation in
Iranian-American relations, primarily interpreting Washington's
policies toward Tehran. Giragosian asserted that "since Armenia is
partners with strategically important countries such as Iran and
Russia, it can play a pivotal role and become a unique platform in the
region." Giragosian, however, expressed disappointment that the
Armenian government did not take full advantage of certain
opportunities. Here, Giragosian specifically referred to Armenia's
structural dependency on Russia--with respect to the "Property for
Debt" deal whereby the management of several Armenian enterprises were
transferred over to Russia--as well as the lacking significance of the
Iran-Armenia gasline in the region and in terms of transit.
Political scientist and new Heritage MP Stepan Safarian then presented
the main scenarios of "programmed war" as designed by certain American
experts. He noted that a volatile situation could ensue in the region,
including missile attacks and partial military strikes against Iran
and this, in Safarian's view, mainly pursues the objective of
spreading fear to compel Iran to carry out the requirements of the UN
Security Council and the European Union troika. "Armenia enjoys normal
relations with Iran, and this allows Armenian diplomacy the unique
chance to be the initiator and become the mediator in reducing the
tension," Safarian argued. He added that the conduct of incorrect
methodology--the mongering of fear--toward Iran can marginalize the
latter and make it become unpredictable. According to Safarian, any
country at war attempts to take the military platform outside its
borders and when that happens the military, political, and economic
consequences are inevitable.
Former Minister of Environment Karine Danielian intervened next. She
spoke about the adverse environmental consequences that might result
from potential military conflict. According to Danielian, the intense
breakdown in the Earth's crust as a result of rapid usage of the
petroleum and gas mines cause man-made catastrophes and deteriorate
the regional environmental conditions. "There is, at present, a
greater artificial threat to the ecosystem of our region, and this
could bring unforeseeable consequences. I refer to international
reaction to Iran's nuclear agenda, and if this reaction were to enter
the military phase it would cause volatile results," Danielian said.
She also noted that Armenia would be the first to bear the brunt of
the dangers threatening Iran, and called on the roundtable
participants to join her in declaring this region a nuclear-free zone.
The first session concluded with a talk by Mane Hakobian of the
Association for Sustainable Human Development, who concentrated on the
ramifications of any military operations and the potential ripple
effects on the region as a whole. She pointed to the variety of
factors that might endanger Armenia's stability. "The real disaster
could start when the US Armed Forces decide to bomb and destroy the
uranium enrichment complexes within Iranian territory. The sole avenue
for annihilating underground bunkers is to use powerful bombs, and
this would result in high-magnitude artificial earthquakes with a
circumference of one thousand kilometers," Hakobian said. She also
expressed concern that should this happen the Armenia entire would be
at the epicenter of a seismic disaster. "If this matter is not
peacefully resolved the reality could be even worse," Hakobian
concluded.
The afternoon session was keynoted by Iran specialist Emma Begijanian,
who presented an overview of probable retaliatory measures by Iran.
"An attack on Iran can cause the opposite result, and this would
encourage Iran to start a large-scale production of nuclear weapons,"
she said. According to Begijanian, Iran has sufficient levers to
counter the US and one such lever is to close the Hovmuz Strait, which
is considered the airway in the Persian Gulf for the international
energy conduits. Begijanian also expressed a conviction that producing
nuclear weapons is not Iran's objective and that it is prepared to
enrich uranium under international watch.
The foreign policy roundtable concluded with an exchange of views and
policy recommendations among Giro Manoyan of the Dashnaktsutiun Party;
Vardan Khachatrian from Heritage's parliamentary group; political
analyst Davit Petrosian; former MP Arshak Sadoyan; director Simon
Kamsarakan of the Armenian Center for Fundamental Sciences; Armen
Dovlatian from the Social- Ecological Party; director Stepan Grigorian
of the Analytical Center on Globalization and Regional Cooperation;
chairman Boris Navasardian of the Yerevan Press Club; Edward Antinian,
deputy chairman of the Liberal Progressive Party; and several others.
Roundtable participants also came to the conclusion that everything
must be done so that the developments concerning Iran follow a pacific
path.
Founded in 1994 by Armenia's first Minister of Foreign Affairs Raffi
K. Hovannisian and supported by a global network of contributors,
ACNIS serves as a link between innovative scholarship and the public
policy challenges facing Armenia and the Armenian people in the
post-Soviet world. It also aspires to be a catalyst for creative,
strategic thinking and a wider understanding of the new global
environment. In 2007, the Center focuses primarily on civic education,
democratic development, conflict resolution, and applied research on
critical domestic and foreign policy issues for the state and the
nation.
For further information on the Center call (37410) 52-87-80 or
27-48-18; fax (37410) 52-48-46; email [email protected] or [email protected];
or visit www.acnis.am
Armenian Center for National and International Studies
75 Yerznkian Street
Yerevan 0033, Armenia
Tel: (+374 - 10) 52.87.80 or 27.48.18
Fax: (+374 - 10) 52.48.46
Email: [email protected] or [email protected]
Website: www.acnis.am
June 30, 2007
ACNIS Examines Regional Security, US-Iran Relations
Yerevan--The Armenian Center for National and International Studies
(ACNIS) today initiated a foreign policy discussion entitled "The
Challenges of Regional Security: Iran, the United States, and
Armenia." With an eye on the continued downturn in relations between
the United States and Iran, this gathering of state and political
figures, leading analysts, policy specialists, media representatives,
and officials from the US and Iranian embassies analyzed the potential
conflicts of interest, far-reaching miscalculations, and structural
pitfalls this standoff presents. The conference considered threats to
both macro- and micro-regional forces, including Armenia. Various
scenarios, possible solutions, and plans of action were presented
throughout the day.
The day's agenda opened with remarks by Raffi K. Hovannisian, ACNIS
founder and newly-elected Member of Parliament. "It is our
professional as well as civic duty to examine and elucidate, against
the background of likely developments, the issues that directly affect
Armenia's security," Hovannisian said, adding that the Republic needs
to reveal past and putative omissions within its foreign and domestic
policy framework with the aim of defending its national interest and
finding ways and means for surmounting current geopolitical
challenges. "A strategic mutual reassessment is in order for two very
important nations--the United States and Iran--whose ultimate meeting
of minds is crucial for regional security and world peace in the new
era. Armenia, from whose vital interests this flows, must be prepared
in every way to facilitate such a strategic imperative," Hovannisian
suggested.
The roundtable's morning session focused on the dangers and risks not
only for Armenia but for the entire region if differences between the
United States and Iran are resolved militarily. The first speaker was
analyst Richard Giragosian of Jane's Information Group. Giragosian
addressed the key factors of discord and possible cooperation in
Iranian-American relations, primarily interpreting Washington's
policies toward Tehran. Giragosian asserted that "since Armenia is
partners with strategically important countries such as Iran and
Russia, it can play a pivotal role and become a unique platform in the
region." Giragosian, however, expressed disappointment that the
Armenian government did not take full advantage of certain
opportunities. Here, Giragosian specifically referred to Armenia's
structural dependency on Russia--with respect to the "Property for
Debt" deal whereby the management of several Armenian enterprises were
transferred over to Russia--as well as the lacking significance of the
Iran-Armenia gasline in the region and in terms of transit.
Political scientist and new Heritage MP Stepan Safarian then presented
the main scenarios of "programmed war" as designed by certain American
experts. He noted that a volatile situation could ensue in the region,
including missile attacks and partial military strikes against Iran
and this, in Safarian's view, mainly pursues the objective of
spreading fear to compel Iran to carry out the requirements of the UN
Security Council and the European Union troika. "Armenia enjoys normal
relations with Iran, and this allows Armenian diplomacy the unique
chance to be the initiator and become the mediator in reducing the
tension," Safarian argued. He added that the conduct of incorrect
methodology--the mongering of fear--toward Iran can marginalize the
latter and make it become unpredictable. According to Safarian, any
country at war attempts to take the military platform outside its
borders and when that happens the military, political, and economic
consequences are inevitable.
Former Minister of Environment Karine Danielian intervened next. She
spoke about the adverse environmental consequences that might result
from potential military conflict. According to Danielian, the intense
breakdown in the Earth's crust as a result of rapid usage of the
petroleum and gas mines cause man-made catastrophes and deteriorate
the regional environmental conditions. "There is, at present, a
greater artificial threat to the ecosystem of our region, and this
could bring unforeseeable consequences. I refer to international
reaction to Iran's nuclear agenda, and if this reaction were to enter
the military phase it would cause volatile results," Danielian said.
She also noted that Armenia would be the first to bear the brunt of
the dangers threatening Iran, and called on the roundtable
participants to join her in declaring this region a nuclear-free zone.
The first session concluded with a talk by Mane Hakobian of the
Association for Sustainable Human Development, who concentrated on the
ramifications of any military operations and the potential ripple
effects on the region as a whole. She pointed to the variety of
factors that might endanger Armenia's stability. "The real disaster
could start when the US Armed Forces decide to bomb and destroy the
uranium enrichment complexes within Iranian territory. The sole avenue
for annihilating underground bunkers is to use powerful bombs, and
this would result in high-magnitude artificial earthquakes with a
circumference of one thousand kilometers," Hakobian said. She also
expressed concern that should this happen the Armenia entire would be
at the epicenter of a seismic disaster. "If this matter is not
peacefully resolved the reality could be even worse," Hakobian
concluded.
The afternoon session was keynoted by Iran specialist Emma Begijanian,
who presented an overview of probable retaliatory measures by Iran.
"An attack on Iran can cause the opposite result, and this would
encourage Iran to start a large-scale production of nuclear weapons,"
she said. According to Begijanian, Iran has sufficient levers to
counter the US and one such lever is to close the Hovmuz Strait, which
is considered the airway in the Persian Gulf for the international
energy conduits. Begijanian also expressed a conviction that producing
nuclear weapons is not Iran's objective and that it is prepared to
enrich uranium under international watch.
The foreign policy roundtable concluded with an exchange of views and
policy recommendations among Giro Manoyan of the Dashnaktsutiun Party;
Vardan Khachatrian from Heritage's parliamentary group; political
analyst Davit Petrosian; former MP Arshak Sadoyan; director Simon
Kamsarakan of the Armenian Center for Fundamental Sciences; Armen
Dovlatian from the Social- Ecological Party; director Stepan Grigorian
of the Analytical Center on Globalization and Regional Cooperation;
chairman Boris Navasardian of the Yerevan Press Club; Edward Antinian,
deputy chairman of the Liberal Progressive Party; and several others.
Roundtable participants also came to the conclusion that everything
must be done so that the developments concerning Iran follow a pacific
path.
Founded in 1994 by Armenia's first Minister of Foreign Affairs Raffi
K. Hovannisian and supported by a global network of contributors,
ACNIS serves as a link between innovative scholarship and the public
policy challenges facing Armenia and the Armenian people in the
post-Soviet world. It also aspires to be a catalyst for creative,
strategic thinking and a wider understanding of the new global
environment. In 2007, the Center focuses primarily on civic education,
democratic development, conflict resolution, and applied research on
critical domestic and foreign policy issues for the state and the
nation.
For further information on the Center call (37410) 52-87-80 or
27-48-18; fax (37410) 52-48-46; email [email protected] or [email protected];
or visit www.acnis.am