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SERGE SARGSYAN HURRIED
Hakob Badalyan
Lragir.am
14-06-2007 12:03:15
The impression that the lasting negotiations after the Armenian
parliamentary election created the new pyramid of power, or its
axis was created was false. The government pyramid or the axis has
not been created, the process is just starting. Perhaps this is the
main explanation why the election of May 12 was rather calm. This
election which was considered as crucial, and even the pro-government
Bargavach Hayastan and ARF Dashnaktsutyun parties prepared for it
aggressively, passed in a very, very, too calm atmosphere compared
with its cruciality. Perhaps the reason is the pyramid realized in
time that if a definitive importance is paid to election, it will be
impossible to hold it within a "civil" framework and get the nod of the
international community. Therefore, they decided to turn the election
into a formality, and put off the creation of government until the
post-election period. Therefore, the post-election arrangements between
the government forces do not overlap with the official result of the
election. The official result allowed the Republican Party to get hold
of full power, whereas the party had to seek partners. In addition,
it almost begged and persuaded them to join in. It is evidence that
what happens after May 12 has nothing to do with May 12.
There are substantial proofs, and two of them are enough to show the
struggle for government in Armenia is gathering momentum, and May 12
was just a compromise between the wings of power. The appointment
of the new secretary of the security council and the conference
of the Republican Party on July 14 are concerned. At first sight,
the secretary of the security council had to be appointed one way
or another because after Serge Sargsyan had become prime minister
the post of the secretary was vacant. It is notable, however, that
Robert Kocharyan appoints secretary after two months.
Certainly, nobody doubts that appointments in Armenia are often highly
formal, and when a position remains vacant, it hardly affects the
real life in the country because one or at best two people decide
everything. However, even the formal appointments are signals to the
local and international community. If Robert Kocharyan used to share
the council of security with Serge Sargsyan, now Armen Gevorgyan's
appointment shows he takes the security council in his hands.
In addition, Gevorgyan cannot be considered as a compromise. He
is perceived as one of the most reliable and devoted people around
Robert Kocharyan.
Consequently, by this appointment the president makes an aggressive
step in the political sphere, showing first that he dominates the key
spheres of the country, and second, by appointing one of his reliable
people he shows this sphere is and will be highly important for him. In
other words, by appointing Armen Gevorgyan Robert Kocharyan reveals
his political plans, and though their meaning is not understood yet,
it is nevertheless clear that the president is not going to stop
dominating the game.
The decision on a new conference of the Republican Party is rather
interesting in this context. In fact, the conference will be held
about a year after the historic conference of July 22. The official
explanation is to elect a new leader of the Republican Party, because
after Andranik Margaryan's death the party did not have a leader, Serge
Sargsyan was the interim leader. It seems to be a recurrent working
conference. It is interesting, however, why this working conference
is held in vacation time, between the beginning and the end of the
political year, when one does not know the Republican Party is closing
or opening the political year, when the other political forces do not
know if by this conference the Republican Party accounts to them or
they will have to account to the Republican Party.
In the meantime, all this allows thinking that the Republican
Party's conference is not held to fill in the gaps of the hierarchy
inside the party but to reorganize in the process of the government
hierarchy. The model of July 22 did not work. Serge Sargsyan who
stated on that day "if one wants others to obey him, one must obey",
broke this principle. Hardly a few oligarchs had obeyed Serge Sargsyan
when he though everyone already obeyed, and decided to stop obeying
Robert Kocharyan too early. Meanwhile, it became clear that still
very many do not obey him, many more than those who were believed to
have voted for the Republican Party. Now it is necessary to start
from the beginning. But what will happen if Robert Kocharyan does
not wish Serge Sargsyan to have him obey him any more?
Hakob Badalyan
Lragir.am
14-06-2007 12:03:15
The impression that the lasting negotiations after the Armenian
parliamentary election created the new pyramid of power, or its
axis was created was false. The government pyramid or the axis has
not been created, the process is just starting. Perhaps this is the
main explanation why the election of May 12 was rather calm. This
election which was considered as crucial, and even the pro-government
Bargavach Hayastan and ARF Dashnaktsutyun parties prepared for it
aggressively, passed in a very, very, too calm atmosphere compared
with its cruciality. Perhaps the reason is the pyramid realized in
time that if a definitive importance is paid to election, it will be
impossible to hold it within a "civil" framework and get the nod of the
international community. Therefore, they decided to turn the election
into a formality, and put off the creation of government until the
post-election period. Therefore, the post-election arrangements between
the government forces do not overlap with the official result of the
election. The official result allowed the Republican Party to get hold
of full power, whereas the party had to seek partners. In addition,
it almost begged and persuaded them to join in. It is evidence that
what happens after May 12 has nothing to do with May 12.
There are substantial proofs, and two of them are enough to show the
struggle for government in Armenia is gathering momentum, and May 12
was just a compromise between the wings of power. The appointment
of the new secretary of the security council and the conference
of the Republican Party on July 14 are concerned. At first sight,
the secretary of the security council had to be appointed one way
or another because after Serge Sargsyan had become prime minister
the post of the secretary was vacant. It is notable, however, that
Robert Kocharyan appoints secretary after two months.
Certainly, nobody doubts that appointments in Armenia are often highly
formal, and when a position remains vacant, it hardly affects the
real life in the country because one or at best two people decide
everything. However, even the formal appointments are signals to the
local and international community. If Robert Kocharyan used to share
the council of security with Serge Sargsyan, now Armen Gevorgyan's
appointment shows he takes the security council in his hands.
In addition, Gevorgyan cannot be considered as a compromise. He
is perceived as one of the most reliable and devoted people around
Robert Kocharyan.
Consequently, by this appointment the president makes an aggressive
step in the political sphere, showing first that he dominates the key
spheres of the country, and second, by appointing one of his reliable
people he shows this sphere is and will be highly important for him. In
other words, by appointing Armen Gevorgyan Robert Kocharyan reveals
his political plans, and though their meaning is not understood yet,
it is nevertheless clear that the president is not going to stop
dominating the game.
The decision on a new conference of the Republican Party is rather
interesting in this context. In fact, the conference will be held
about a year after the historic conference of July 22. The official
explanation is to elect a new leader of the Republican Party, because
after Andranik Margaryan's death the party did not have a leader, Serge
Sargsyan was the interim leader. It seems to be a recurrent working
conference. It is interesting, however, why this working conference
is held in vacation time, between the beginning and the end of the
political year, when one does not know the Republican Party is closing
or opening the political year, when the other political forces do not
know if by this conference the Republican Party accounts to them or
they will have to account to the Republican Party.
In the meantime, all this allows thinking that the Republican
Party's conference is not held to fill in the gaps of the hierarchy
inside the party but to reorganize in the process of the government
hierarchy. The model of July 22 did not work. Serge Sargsyan who
stated on that day "if one wants others to obey him, one must obey",
broke this principle. Hardly a few oligarchs had obeyed Serge Sargsyan
when he though everyone already obeyed, and decided to stop obeying
Robert Kocharyan too early. Meanwhile, it became clear that still
very many do not obey him, many more than those who were believed to
have voted for the Republican Party. Now it is necessary to start
from the beginning. But what will happen if Robert Kocharyan does
not wish Serge Sargsyan to have him obey him any more?