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KARABAKH PRECEDENT
Azat Artsakh Daily, Republic of Nagorno Karabakh [NKR]
Press Papier.
13-06-2007
On June 19 the presidential election will be held in Nagorno-Karabakh
Republic. The people of this unrecognized state will elect
president for the fourth time. Political experts say the upcoming
election is going to be non-formal, and political confrontation
is expected. According to the NKR Central Electoral Commission,
five candidates have been put up: the head of the National Security
Service Bako Sahakian, the deputy foreign minister Masis Mayilian,
Member of Parliament Armen Abgarian, the leader of the Communist
Party Hrant Melkumian and professor at Artsakh State University Vania
Avanesian. Observers think the main candidates are Bako Sahakian
and Masis Mayilian. Sahakian, 47, is supported by all the parliament
forces: the Democratic Party of Artsakh, the Azat Hayrenik Party, the
ARF Dashnaktsutyun of Artsakh and the Movement 88 Party (the latter
two represent the local opposition). In the pre-election period,
they signed a joint statement. In other words, Bako Sahakian is
the candidate of the main political actors in Karabakh. It should
be noted that NKR President Ghukasian and the Armenian government
support also him. The Armenian President Robert Kocharian and Prime
Minister Serge Sargisian, who come from Karabakh, have known Bako
Sahakian since the Soviet times, and they collaborated during the war
in Karabakh. Although Masis Mayilian, 41, also represents official
circles, he is supported by only part of the opposition, as well
as the pro-opposition media and a few influential NGOs, which have
relations with Western NGOs.
Hence, the candidates are in different "weights", and it is
not accidental that most Armenian experts think the head of the
NKR National Security Service is likely to win the presidential
election. And it is not only the administrative resource and the
support of the local and Yerevan-based political "heavyweight". It
appears that people will prefer the statesman Sahakian who embodies
the heritance of rather effective internal and foreign political line
of the present government to Masis Mayilian's aspirations and not so
clear oppositionist stance. At the same time, having the support of
the pro-West NGOs will hardly be approved by the common pro-Russian
moods among the people of Karabakh. In a recent poll conducted by
the Open Society Organization and the Unity Youth, Sport and Culture
Organization the respondents were offered the question "What path
should the president lead the country, pro-Europe, pro-Russian
or pro-American and what policy should he conduct, complementary,
neutral or other?" 109 our of 300 were for the pro-Russian line, 61
voted European integration. 60 people are for a complementary policy
and 29 are for a neutral way. However, the local experts say the most
interesting thing about this election will be the democratic precedent
for the other unrecognized countries of the post-Soviet space. And not
only. It is already known that the NKR president who was elected twice
(in 1997 and 2002) leaves politics.
The law barred three terms running until last year. However, in
December of last year, the referendum adopted the NKR Constitution,
and Ghukasian got an opportunity to run a third term, from so-called
point "zero".
However, the NKR president did not make this move, thereby creating
this precedent which may become a model of moderateness for the
leaders of the other post-Soviet states. Ghukasian himself explained
his stance: "We must create traditions, the most important of
which is the civilized change of government... For me the country's
reputation is most important." Most experts maintain that 50-year-old
Ghukasian's voluntary leaving of office will raise the reputation of
Nagorno-Karabakh in the world and is evidence to the willingness of
official Stepanakert to promote democracy in the country.
Azat Artsakh Daily, Republic of Nagorno Karabakh [NKR]
Press Papier.
13-06-2007
On June 19 the presidential election will be held in Nagorno-Karabakh
Republic. The people of this unrecognized state will elect
president for the fourth time. Political experts say the upcoming
election is going to be non-formal, and political confrontation
is expected. According to the NKR Central Electoral Commission,
five candidates have been put up: the head of the National Security
Service Bako Sahakian, the deputy foreign minister Masis Mayilian,
Member of Parliament Armen Abgarian, the leader of the Communist
Party Hrant Melkumian and professor at Artsakh State University Vania
Avanesian. Observers think the main candidates are Bako Sahakian
and Masis Mayilian. Sahakian, 47, is supported by all the parliament
forces: the Democratic Party of Artsakh, the Azat Hayrenik Party, the
ARF Dashnaktsutyun of Artsakh and the Movement 88 Party (the latter
two represent the local opposition). In the pre-election period,
they signed a joint statement. In other words, Bako Sahakian is
the candidate of the main political actors in Karabakh. It should
be noted that NKR President Ghukasian and the Armenian government
support also him. The Armenian President Robert Kocharian and Prime
Minister Serge Sargisian, who come from Karabakh, have known Bako
Sahakian since the Soviet times, and they collaborated during the war
in Karabakh. Although Masis Mayilian, 41, also represents official
circles, he is supported by only part of the opposition, as well
as the pro-opposition media and a few influential NGOs, which have
relations with Western NGOs.
Hence, the candidates are in different "weights", and it is
not accidental that most Armenian experts think the head of the
NKR National Security Service is likely to win the presidential
election. And it is not only the administrative resource and the
support of the local and Yerevan-based political "heavyweight". It
appears that people will prefer the statesman Sahakian who embodies
the heritance of rather effective internal and foreign political line
of the present government to Masis Mayilian's aspirations and not so
clear oppositionist stance. At the same time, having the support of
the pro-West NGOs will hardly be approved by the common pro-Russian
moods among the people of Karabakh. In a recent poll conducted by
the Open Society Organization and the Unity Youth, Sport and Culture
Organization the respondents were offered the question "What path
should the president lead the country, pro-Europe, pro-Russian
or pro-American and what policy should he conduct, complementary,
neutral or other?" 109 our of 300 were for the pro-Russian line, 61
voted European integration. 60 people are for a complementary policy
and 29 are for a neutral way. However, the local experts say the most
interesting thing about this election will be the democratic precedent
for the other unrecognized countries of the post-Soviet space. And not
only. It is already known that the NKR president who was elected twice
(in 1997 and 2002) leaves politics.
The law barred three terms running until last year. However, in
December of last year, the referendum adopted the NKR Constitution,
and Ghukasian got an opportunity to run a third term, from so-called
point "zero".
However, the NKR president did not make this move, thereby creating
this precedent which may become a model of moderateness for the
leaders of the other post-Soviet states. Ghukasian himself explained
his stance: "We must create traditions, the most important of
which is the civilized change of government... For me the country's
reputation is most important." Most experts maintain that 50-year-old
Ghukasian's voluntary leaving of office will raise the reputation of
Nagorno-Karabakh in the world and is evidence to the willingness of
official Stepanakert to promote democracy in the country.