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ATTACKS ON MEDIA COULD HARM AZERI-EU RELATIONS - ANALYST
Day.az website, Baku
21 May 07
An Azerbaijani political analyst has warned the country's leaders
that their recent attacks on the media could harm the country's
relations with the European Union. Rasim Musabayov believes that the
authorities have become overconfident of the country's geo-strategic
importance in terms of energy and the Iranian issue. He poured
scorn on the notion that the current attacks on the media might be
sanctioned by the West to divert criticism prior to the signing of
an agreement on Karabakh. He believed the idea of a Transcaspian gas
pipeline was still alive and rejected the possibility of a new Cold
War between the US and Russia. The following is excerpt from report
by Azerbaijani website Day.az on 21 May headlined: "Rasim Musabayov:
'The latest problems with the media may eventually lead to a suspension
of Azerbaijan's membership of PACE, and to a freezing of our country's
relations within the framework of the EU's New Neighbours programme'";
subheadings have been inserted editorially:
Attacks on Azeri media
[Correspondent] Rasim muallim [form of address], can we expect any
changes in the West's attitude towards Azerbaijan in the light of
the recent attacks on the media?
[Musabayov] Recent events have caused alarm both among the Azerbaijani
public and in the world at large. The reprisals against journalists
contrast badly with the vowed intentions of the authorities to
integrate into the European political, economic and cultural space. If
the head of state does not interfere in the situation and cannot
stop the pressure on the media, then this could lead to a suspension
of Azerbaijan's membership of PACE [Parliamentary Assembly of the
Council of Europe] and do great damage to our relations with the
European Union.
Yes, because of its energy resources, the West will continue to
cooperate with Azerbaijan, but these relations will not be with a
close partner but in a format similar to relations with Turkmenistan
or even Nigeria. I wouldn't like to see this happening to us.
[Correspondent] Why are our authorities acting in this way?
[Musabayov] It seems to me that they are giddy with the large flow of
oil and money and with overestimation of Azerbaijan's geo-strategic
importance because in the context of the Iranian problem and the energy
corridor the western powers are wooing us as much as they can. But
oil and money have the capacity of running out and the geopolitical
situation can change all of a sudden.
Therefore it is better to build relations based on common values,
an essential component of which is respect for people's rights and
freedoms.
Yes, the media often act in an unprofessional manner, at times are
susceptible to unfounded criticism and occasionally resort to blatant
slander and abuse. But arrests and penalties are not the best way of
dealing with the situation. I remember that such a major political
figure as [former Azeri President] Heydar Aliyev, the continuation of
whose cause and policies the powers-that-be constantly avow, showed
tolerance to his opponents and magnanimity even to the ill-judged
and at times offensive activities of the newspapers.
But today's campaign against the journalists shows either an inner
lack of confidence among the ruling elite which leads them to want
to close all channels of criticism in a preclusive way, or else it
is a sign of losing touch with reality and a mistaken belief that
oil will outbalance all negative reaction abroad.
[Correspondent] The opposition press writes that the current attacks
on the media have been sanctioned by the West so that in this way
all pockets of criticism of the authorities prior to the signing of a
peace agreement on the Karabakh problem will be doused. What is your
view on this?
Attacks not sanctioned by West
[Musabayov] This is a far-fetched idea and there is nothing to back
it up with. In any case, I don't know of a single instance where the
US and the western countries have acted in a similar way in other
countries. There isn't a single fact in favour of this notion in
Azerbaijan itself either. The western countries and international
organizations are in reality expressing their own negative attitude to
the arrest of the journalists. As far as I am aware, representatives
of the embassies of the western countries accredited to Baku gathered
recently to discuss this in the office of the OSCE.
The shakedown on the media in the context of a Karabakh settlement
is also unconvincing because even without this the authorities are in
complete control of the television and radio channels. What threat can
come from the newspapers whose circulations are already small? So let's
not put the blame for the problem on somebody else. [Passage omitted]
Transcaspian gas pipeline project still alive
[Correspondent] After Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Russia agreed to
build the Caspian gas pipeline, has the project of a Transcaspian
gas pipeline been shelved?
[Musabayov] I don't think so. The diverse ways of delivering
Caspian oil and gas to European markets is needed by Kazakhstan
and Turkmenistan themselves, as well as the consumers of these
resources. This project is also of benefit to transit countries,
including us. Why should interested parties turn down this project
to the advantage of Russia and a super-monopoly such as Gazprom?
So far Moscow, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have merely come to
an agreement about rebuilding the old Caspian gas pipeline, whose
throughput capacity is expected to be up to 10-12bn cu m. This, bearing
in mind the plans of Kazakhstan and, in particular, Turkmenistan to
double gas extraction, retains the topical nature of the Transcaspian
gas pipeline (the Nabucco project).
Incidentally, the Turkmen President [Gurbanguly] Berdimuhammedow,
unashamed in the presence of Russian President [Vladimir] Putin,
made this abundantly clear.
[Correspondent] Could a new Cold War break about between the US
and Russia?
Rules out new Cold War
[Musabayov] I rule this out. Incidentally, such a development
has also been verbally ruled out by the top leaders in the US and
Russia. The tension we see now cannot lead to a resumption of the
"Cold War" for a whole number of reasons. First of all, the Cold War
presupposes a clash of ideologies. Russia does not have an ideology
which could oppose western ideology. It is Islamist ideology which
is more suitable to this role than any far-fetched "Euroasianism"
or surrogate "sovereign democracy". On the other hand, despite the
increasing oil revenues, there are simply no forces in Russia capable
of unleashing a new "Cold War". The Russian Federation's proportion
of the world economy and military spending is ten times less than
that of the US. Russia is extremely dependent on the West when it
comes to technology and foodstuffs.
Yes, and all the time Moscow expresses its dissatisfaction with the
West and is intractable on many important international problems,
it continues to hold its financial assets and personal funds in
western currency and financial institutions. How could they undertake
a confrontational "Cold War" in such a situation?
[Correspondent] Which way do you think Azerbaijan is going and how?
[Musabayov] The Azerbaijani leaders have spoken about their
commitment to European integration, but these intentions have not
so far been backed up by practical deeds. Azerbaijan has a number of
alternatives. To transform itself into something like the authoritarian
Arab regimes such as Tunisia or Syria or a local edition of the Latin
American regimes would be pointless in a strategic sense. I believe
that so long as its oil revenues continue to grow Azerbaijan will
fluctuate between these alternatives.
The latest moves in relation to the opposition and the media against
the background of an economic upsurge show this clearly. I regret this,
because as a result of such inconsistency we are wasting valuable
time and resources which are so necessary for the modernization of
the economy and state administration and civic society.
However, Azerbaijan's recent history has shown that our political
processes are proceeding in zigzag fashion and it remains for us to
hope that, thanks to the resistance of the progressive section of
society and the efforts of our friends in the world, the country
will overcome the latest zigzag and get back to the main line of
integration into the European civilized space.
Day.az website, Baku
21 May 07
An Azerbaijani political analyst has warned the country's leaders
that their recent attacks on the media could harm the country's
relations with the European Union. Rasim Musabayov believes that the
authorities have become overconfident of the country's geo-strategic
importance in terms of energy and the Iranian issue. He poured
scorn on the notion that the current attacks on the media might be
sanctioned by the West to divert criticism prior to the signing of
an agreement on Karabakh. He believed the idea of a Transcaspian gas
pipeline was still alive and rejected the possibility of a new Cold
War between the US and Russia. The following is excerpt from report
by Azerbaijani website Day.az on 21 May headlined: "Rasim Musabayov:
'The latest problems with the media may eventually lead to a suspension
of Azerbaijan's membership of PACE, and to a freezing of our country's
relations within the framework of the EU's New Neighbours programme'";
subheadings have been inserted editorially:
Attacks on Azeri media
[Correspondent] Rasim muallim [form of address], can we expect any
changes in the West's attitude towards Azerbaijan in the light of
the recent attacks on the media?
[Musabayov] Recent events have caused alarm both among the Azerbaijani
public and in the world at large. The reprisals against journalists
contrast badly with the vowed intentions of the authorities to
integrate into the European political, economic and cultural space. If
the head of state does not interfere in the situation and cannot
stop the pressure on the media, then this could lead to a suspension
of Azerbaijan's membership of PACE [Parliamentary Assembly of the
Council of Europe] and do great damage to our relations with the
European Union.
Yes, because of its energy resources, the West will continue to
cooperate with Azerbaijan, but these relations will not be with a
close partner but in a format similar to relations with Turkmenistan
or even Nigeria. I wouldn't like to see this happening to us.
[Correspondent] Why are our authorities acting in this way?
[Musabayov] It seems to me that they are giddy with the large flow of
oil and money and with overestimation of Azerbaijan's geo-strategic
importance because in the context of the Iranian problem and the energy
corridor the western powers are wooing us as much as they can. But
oil and money have the capacity of running out and the geopolitical
situation can change all of a sudden.
Therefore it is better to build relations based on common values,
an essential component of which is respect for people's rights and
freedoms.
Yes, the media often act in an unprofessional manner, at times are
susceptible to unfounded criticism and occasionally resort to blatant
slander and abuse. But arrests and penalties are not the best way of
dealing with the situation. I remember that such a major political
figure as [former Azeri President] Heydar Aliyev, the continuation of
whose cause and policies the powers-that-be constantly avow, showed
tolerance to his opponents and magnanimity even to the ill-judged
and at times offensive activities of the newspapers.
But today's campaign against the journalists shows either an inner
lack of confidence among the ruling elite which leads them to want
to close all channels of criticism in a preclusive way, or else it
is a sign of losing touch with reality and a mistaken belief that
oil will outbalance all negative reaction abroad.
[Correspondent] The opposition press writes that the current attacks
on the media have been sanctioned by the West so that in this way
all pockets of criticism of the authorities prior to the signing of a
peace agreement on the Karabakh problem will be doused. What is your
view on this?
Attacks not sanctioned by West
[Musabayov] This is a far-fetched idea and there is nothing to back
it up with. In any case, I don't know of a single instance where the
US and the western countries have acted in a similar way in other
countries. There isn't a single fact in favour of this notion in
Azerbaijan itself either. The western countries and international
organizations are in reality expressing their own negative attitude to
the arrest of the journalists. As far as I am aware, representatives
of the embassies of the western countries accredited to Baku gathered
recently to discuss this in the office of the OSCE.
The shakedown on the media in the context of a Karabakh settlement
is also unconvincing because even without this the authorities are in
complete control of the television and radio channels. What threat can
come from the newspapers whose circulations are already small? So let's
not put the blame for the problem on somebody else. [Passage omitted]
Transcaspian gas pipeline project still alive
[Correspondent] After Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Russia agreed to
build the Caspian gas pipeline, has the project of a Transcaspian
gas pipeline been shelved?
[Musabayov] I don't think so. The diverse ways of delivering
Caspian oil and gas to European markets is needed by Kazakhstan
and Turkmenistan themselves, as well as the consumers of these
resources. This project is also of benefit to transit countries,
including us. Why should interested parties turn down this project
to the advantage of Russia and a super-monopoly such as Gazprom?
So far Moscow, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have merely come to
an agreement about rebuilding the old Caspian gas pipeline, whose
throughput capacity is expected to be up to 10-12bn cu m. This, bearing
in mind the plans of Kazakhstan and, in particular, Turkmenistan to
double gas extraction, retains the topical nature of the Transcaspian
gas pipeline (the Nabucco project).
Incidentally, the Turkmen President [Gurbanguly] Berdimuhammedow,
unashamed in the presence of Russian President [Vladimir] Putin,
made this abundantly clear.
[Correspondent] Could a new Cold War break about between the US
and Russia?
Rules out new Cold War
[Musabayov] I rule this out. Incidentally, such a development
has also been verbally ruled out by the top leaders in the US and
Russia. The tension we see now cannot lead to a resumption of the
"Cold War" for a whole number of reasons. First of all, the Cold War
presupposes a clash of ideologies. Russia does not have an ideology
which could oppose western ideology. It is Islamist ideology which
is more suitable to this role than any far-fetched "Euroasianism"
or surrogate "sovereign democracy". On the other hand, despite the
increasing oil revenues, there are simply no forces in Russia capable
of unleashing a new "Cold War". The Russian Federation's proportion
of the world economy and military spending is ten times less than
that of the US. Russia is extremely dependent on the West when it
comes to technology and foodstuffs.
Yes, and all the time Moscow expresses its dissatisfaction with the
West and is intractable on many important international problems,
it continues to hold its financial assets and personal funds in
western currency and financial institutions. How could they undertake
a confrontational "Cold War" in such a situation?
[Correspondent] Which way do you think Azerbaijan is going and how?
[Musabayov] The Azerbaijani leaders have spoken about their
commitment to European integration, but these intentions have not
so far been backed up by practical deeds. Azerbaijan has a number of
alternatives. To transform itself into something like the authoritarian
Arab regimes such as Tunisia or Syria or a local edition of the Latin
American regimes would be pointless in a strategic sense. I believe
that so long as its oil revenues continue to grow Azerbaijan will
fluctuate between these alternatives.
The latest moves in relation to the opposition and the media against
the background of an economic upsurge show this clearly. I regret this,
because as a result of such inconsistency we are wasting valuable
time and resources which are so necessary for the modernization of
the economy and state administration and civic society.
However, Azerbaijan's recent history has shown that our political
processes are proceeding in zigzag fashion and it remains for us to
hope that, thanks to the resistance of the progressive section of
society and the efforts of our friends in the world, the country
will overcome the latest zigzag and get back to the main line of
integration into the European civilized space.