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TURKEY AND US: TIME TO BARGAIN WITH WASHINGTON
By Omer Taspinar
Journal of Turkish Weekly, Turkey
Oct 8 2007
Sometimes you need to hit rock bottom in order to bounce back. Soon,
the veracity of this theory will be tested in Turkish-American
relations. Next week, if the Armenian genocide resolution is approved
by the US House of Representatives, the question awaiting Washington
and Ankara will be: how low can we sink? Turkey already has the most
negative perception of the United States in the world. According to
the latest Pew Global Trend survey, the image of the United States
in Turkey is less positive than in Pakistan, Egypt, Jordan and the
Palestinian territories. How much worse can things get, when 91
percent of Turks already distrust Washington?
The answer to this question is that things can always get worse,
especially if Turkey overacts. Ankara could do so in a number of
ways; restricting the use of the Ýncirlik air base, suspending
defense contracts and temporarily recalling the Turkish ambassador
are potential acts of retaliation that come to mind. Yet none of
these steps would be wise. They would simply exacerbate an already
troubled relationship by opening new wounds. Instead Ankara should
try to see the Armenian resolution for what is. Contrary to what
most Turks are probably thinking, this bill is not sponsored by the
American government. It is not an attempt to punish Ankara.
What Turkish people need to understand is that this bill is purely
about American domestic politics. It has very little to do with the
deterioration in Turkish-American relations over the last few years.
The real reason this non-binding resolution is likely to pass is
related to two factors. First, there is an unprecedented amount of
polarization between Democrats and Republicans. This is not a good
time for strategic and rational thinking in Washington. In the past
when things got rolling in favor of the Armenian resolution, Ankara
could always count on the White House bringing some "geo-strategic"
sense to the legislative branch. This time, however, Democrat Speaker
Nancy Pelosi and President Bush are barely on speaking terms. The
war in Iraq and the current climate of polarization has drastically
changed the ways of American politics -- no one is in the mood to
compromise in Washington. The second factor that makes the approval of
the genocide resolution very likely is Pelosi. There is little that
can be done when the speaker of the House has such a strong personal
commitment to bringing a resolution to the floor.
The question Ankara needs to be asking is the following: is a
non-binding congressional resolution really worth jeopardizing what
is left of the Turkish-American strategic partnership?
Turkish-American relations have bigger problems than the Armenian
resolution. There is no shortage of "real" issues -- such as the
PKK, Cyprus and Iran -- between the two countries. Yet the Armenian
resolution has been such a gigantic headache for the last 20 years that
it has monopolized a big chunk of the Turkish foreign policy agenda in
Washington. Turkey is spending millions to lobby against it and often
finds itself hostage to other powerful lobbies in the process. Seeing
this Armenian bill finally pass one is tempted to say good riddance!
Make no mistake -- the White House and the State Department will still
do their best to stop the resolution. But it is very likely that the
Bush administration will fail, for the reason explained above. And,
having failed, Washington will to resort to "damage control" and
"crisis management" with Ankara. Ironically, such damage control
dynamics may present a golden opportunity for finally moving things in
the right direction. This is what I mean by bouncing back one you hit
rock bottom. But it takes two to tango; Ankara needs to play along
by being measured in its reaction to the bill.
Instead of rapid retaliation and bitter plans for revenge, Ankara
should see this whole ordeal as an opportunity to negotiate
with Washington from a position of relative strength. The Bush
administration will be apologetic and susceptible after the Armenian
resolution. There is a strong chance Washington may be willing to
compensate for what happened by delivering something that Ankara
has long been asking for. If the Justice and Development Party (AKP)
plays its cards right, it may become simply impossible for the Bush
administration to postpone concrete action against the Kurdistan
Workers' Party (PKK).
This would certainly not improve Turkish-American relations overnight,
but it would still go a long way in showing Turkish public opinion
that America is still an ally that values Turkey. Such an American
gesture against the PKK could even pave the way for a more serious
bargaining process between Ankara and Washington about the future of
northern Iraq. After all, this is the region where the US will end
up keeping its troops for the foreseeable future. Let's hope for the
best, but prepare for the worst...
--Boundary_(ID_Ae3nkLUUog8Y4kx+hhmQtQ)--
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
By Omer Taspinar
Journal of Turkish Weekly, Turkey
Oct 8 2007
Sometimes you need to hit rock bottom in order to bounce back. Soon,
the veracity of this theory will be tested in Turkish-American
relations. Next week, if the Armenian genocide resolution is approved
by the US House of Representatives, the question awaiting Washington
and Ankara will be: how low can we sink? Turkey already has the most
negative perception of the United States in the world. According to
the latest Pew Global Trend survey, the image of the United States
in Turkey is less positive than in Pakistan, Egypt, Jordan and the
Palestinian territories. How much worse can things get, when 91
percent of Turks already distrust Washington?
The answer to this question is that things can always get worse,
especially if Turkey overacts. Ankara could do so in a number of
ways; restricting the use of the Ýncirlik air base, suspending
defense contracts and temporarily recalling the Turkish ambassador
are potential acts of retaliation that come to mind. Yet none of
these steps would be wise. They would simply exacerbate an already
troubled relationship by opening new wounds. Instead Ankara should
try to see the Armenian resolution for what is. Contrary to what
most Turks are probably thinking, this bill is not sponsored by the
American government. It is not an attempt to punish Ankara.
What Turkish people need to understand is that this bill is purely
about American domestic politics. It has very little to do with the
deterioration in Turkish-American relations over the last few years.
The real reason this non-binding resolution is likely to pass is
related to two factors. First, there is an unprecedented amount of
polarization between Democrats and Republicans. This is not a good
time for strategic and rational thinking in Washington. In the past
when things got rolling in favor of the Armenian resolution, Ankara
could always count on the White House bringing some "geo-strategic"
sense to the legislative branch. This time, however, Democrat Speaker
Nancy Pelosi and President Bush are barely on speaking terms. The
war in Iraq and the current climate of polarization has drastically
changed the ways of American politics -- no one is in the mood to
compromise in Washington. The second factor that makes the approval of
the genocide resolution very likely is Pelosi. There is little that
can be done when the speaker of the House has such a strong personal
commitment to bringing a resolution to the floor.
The question Ankara needs to be asking is the following: is a
non-binding congressional resolution really worth jeopardizing what
is left of the Turkish-American strategic partnership?
Turkish-American relations have bigger problems than the Armenian
resolution. There is no shortage of "real" issues -- such as the
PKK, Cyprus and Iran -- between the two countries. Yet the Armenian
resolution has been such a gigantic headache for the last 20 years that
it has monopolized a big chunk of the Turkish foreign policy agenda in
Washington. Turkey is spending millions to lobby against it and often
finds itself hostage to other powerful lobbies in the process. Seeing
this Armenian bill finally pass one is tempted to say good riddance!
Make no mistake -- the White House and the State Department will still
do their best to stop the resolution. But it is very likely that the
Bush administration will fail, for the reason explained above. And,
having failed, Washington will to resort to "damage control" and
"crisis management" with Ankara. Ironically, such damage control
dynamics may present a golden opportunity for finally moving things in
the right direction. This is what I mean by bouncing back one you hit
rock bottom. But it takes two to tango; Ankara needs to play along
by being measured in its reaction to the bill.
Instead of rapid retaliation and bitter plans for revenge, Ankara
should see this whole ordeal as an opportunity to negotiate
with Washington from a position of relative strength. The Bush
administration will be apologetic and susceptible after the Armenian
resolution. There is a strong chance Washington may be willing to
compensate for what happened by delivering something that Ankara
has long been asking for. If the Justice and Development Party (AKP)
plays its cards right, it may become simply impossible for the Bush
administration to postpone concrete action against the Kurdistan
Workers' Party (PKK).
This would certainly not improve Turkish-American relations overnight,
but it would still go a long way in showing Turkish public opinion
that America is still an ally that values Turkey. Such an American
gesture against the PKK could even pave the way for a more serious
bargaining process between Ankara and Washington about the future of
northern Iraq. After all, this is the region where the US will end
up keeping its troops for the foreseeable future. Let's hope for the
best, but prepare for the worst...
--Boundary_(ID_Ae3nkLUUog8Y4kx+hhmQtQ)--
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress