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The Van Der Galiën Gazette, Netherlands
Oct 14 2007
An Israeli View of Turkish-American Relations
Oct 14th, 2007 by Marc Schulman
The following excerpts are from a paper authored by Gallia
Lindenstrauss for the Institute of National Strategic Studies at Tel
Aviv University:
At first glance, there is no substantive connection between the
recognition of the Armenian genocide and the situation in northern
Iraq. However, the action by the Foreign Affairs Committee and the
expectation of full House approval in November has strengthened the
perception of the Turks that they have less to lose in terms of
Turkish-U.S. relations if they do act in Iraq. Given that Turkey is
more determined to do so and less likely to heed to American warnings
not to intervene, it is possible that the U.S. will decide to
minimize the negative consequences of Turkish intervention by
providing at least partial cooperation. The publication of reports
about secret plans for such cooperation suggests that the possibility
has already been extensively discussed by the two sides,
notwithstanding American concerns about stability in the
Kurdish-controlled autonomous area in the north of Iraq and about a
hostile reaction on the part of the Kurds, who have been the most
loyal American allies in Iraq. Indeed, these concerns suggest that if
the Turks do intervene, the Americans may also have to undertake more
aggressive actions. Given American failures in Iraq up till now, it
is doubtful whether the Administration can permit another failure in
the form of unilateral Turkish intervention seemingly in defiance of
the U.S. [My emphasis]
Such intervention would have negative consequences that could by
neutralized, at least with respect to Turkish-U.S. relations, if the
Americans actually cooperated. By contrast, Turkey is unwilling to
compromise on the Armenian genocide issue and the Administration
cannot impose its will on Congress. It is therefore difficult to see
how the damage to bilateral relations of the likely forthcoming
Congressional resolution can be limited.
Turkish policy indicates that while Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdo?an and President Gül are acting to promote domestic reforms that
run counter to the Kemalist legacy (e.g., abolishing the ban on the
wearing of religiously-inspired headscarves in universities), in
foreign affairs they act in conformity with the hard-line Turkish
tradition. That is reflected in the intention to intervene militarily
in northern Iraq and in the ongoing campaign to confront anyone
supporting the Armenian position on the issue of genocide. It is
true, of course, that close ties with the United States are also a
traditionally important component of Turkish foreign policy, but it
is increasingly difficult today for Turks to reconcile the
contradiction between their interests and those of the U.S. Since the
American invasion of Iraq, Turkish public opinion has also become
more and more anti-American, and that influences decision makers to
adopt uncompromising positions regarding the Kurdish issue and ignore
American attitudes.
Although Turkish-American relations appear to be headed toward a
crisis, both sides remain aware of the importance of those ties and
therefore try to deal with the challenges they face. For example, the
Americans are concerned that Turkey might block a main supply line to
Iraq across the Turkish-Iraqi border or prevent U.S. aircraft from
operating out of Inçirlik air base. And while the Turks could act
unilaterally in Iraq, cooperating with the United States might
enhance international legitimacy for such an action and soften the
negative consequences for Turkey's (already poor) chances of being
accepted into the European Union; indeed, Turkey would probably
prefer that the U.S. itself act aggressively against the PKK so that
Turkey would not have to. But despite the common desire not to harm
bilateral strategic relations, there is a clash between Turkish and
American interests that may very well further convulse the already
complicated reality in Iraq.
http://mvdg.wordpress.com/2007/10/14/an-isr aeli-view-of-turkish-american-relations/
From: Baghdasarian
Oct 14 2007
An Israeli View of Turkish-American Relations
Oct 14th, 2007 by Marc Schulman
The following excerpts are from a paper authored by Gallia
Lindenstrauss for the Institute of National Strategic Studies at Tel
Aviv University:
At first glance, there is no substantive connection between the
recognition of the Armenian genocide and the situation in northern
Iraq. However, the action by the Foreign Affairs Committee and the
expectation of full House approval in November has strengthened the
perception of the Turks that they have less to lose in terms of
Turkish-U.S. relations if they do act in Iraq. Given that Turkey is
more determined to do so and less likely to heed to American warnings
not to intervene, it is possible that the U.S. will decide to
minimize the negative consequences of Turkish intervention by
providing at least partial cooperation. The publication of reports
about secret plans for such cooperation suggests that the possibility
has already been extensively discussed by the two sides,
notwithstanding American concerns about stability in the
Kurdish-controlled autonomous area in the north of Iraq and about a
hostile reaction on the part of the Kurds, who have been the most
loyal American allies in Iraq. Indeed, these concerns suggest that if
the Turks do intervene, the Americans may also have to undertake more
aggressive actions. Given American failures in Iraq up till now, it
is doubtful whether the Administration can permit another failure in
the form of unilateral Turkish intervention seemingly in defiance of
the U.S. [My emphasis]
Such intervention would have negative consequences that could by
neutralized, at least with respect to Turkish-U.S. relations, if the
Americans actually cooperated. By contrast, Turkey is unwilling to
compromise on the Armenian genocide issue and the Administration
cannot impose its will on Congress. It is therefore difficult to see
how the damage to bilateral relations of the likely forthcoming
Congressional resolution can be limited.
Turkish policy indicates that while Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdo?an and President Gül are acting to promote domestic reforms that
run counter to the Kemalist legacy (e.g., abolishing the ban on the
wearing of religiously-inspired headscarves in universities), in
foreign affairs they act in conformity with the hard-line Turkish
tradition. That is reflected in the intention to intervene militarily
in northern Iraq and in the ongoing campaign to confront anyone
supporting the Armenian position on the issue of genocide. It is
true, of course, that close ties with the United States are also a
traditionally important component of Turkish foreign policy, but it
is increasingly difficult today for Turks to reconcile the
contradiction between their interests and those of the U.S. Since the
American invasion of Iraq, Turkish public opinion has also become
more and more anti-American, and that influences decision makers to
adopt uncompromising positions regarding the Kurdish issue and ignore
American attitudes.
Although Turkish-American relations appear to be headed toward a
crisis, both sides remain aware of the importance of those ties and
therefore try to deal with the challenges they face. For example, the
Americans are concerned that Turkey might block a main supply line to
Iraq across the Turkish-Iraqi border or prevent U.S. aircraft from
operating out of Inçirlik air base. And while the Turks could act
unilaterally in Iraq, cooperating with the United States might
enhance international legitimacy for such an action and soften the
negative consequences for Turkey's (already poor) chances of being
accepted into the European Union; indeed, Turkey would probably
prefer that the U.S. itself act aggressively against the PKK so that
Turkey would not have to. But despite the common desire not to harm
bilateral strategic relations, there is a clash between Turkish and
American interests that may very well further convulse the already
complicated reality in Iraq.
http://mvdg.wordpress.com/2007/10/14/an-isr aeli-view-of-turkish-american-relations/
From: Baghdasarian