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RECENT DEVELOPMENTS MAY ESCALATE INTO "REGIONAL WAR"
Yeni Safak website, Turkey
25 Oct 2007
Those who know about the delicate and fragile structure of Turkey's
immediate surroundings must be aware of what the current situation
means. Except for the occupation of Iraq, we have not encountered a
situation so grave as to threaten a transformation of the destiny of
our region. Those who insist on "changing the map of the Middle East"
and those who want to guarantee the current map and borders are on
the verge of an open war. Now we all know that those who are intent
on changing the map do not exempt Turkey from this process. We also
see that those who oppose breakups of nations are acting - virtually
being driven - to join forces.
If worst fears come true, the PKK [Kurdistan Workers' Party] attacks,
the political agenda of terrorists and the forces behind them, the
battle Turkey is waging against terrorism, and its efforts to prepare
for regional uncertainty may abruptly start a regional war. This is
a truly serious concern. Contrary to what is commonly thought, the
potential crisis may spread across the region so easily and quickly
that even those who have been trying everything they can to change
the map for years may be shocked. Indeed, much blood may be shed and
massacres may occur on these lands.
Those who view events in only one dimension, those who treat the PKK as
only a terrorist organization, those who confine the potential scale
of the conflict to the bounds of combating terrorism, and those who
take as an article of faith that ties between Turkey and the United
States and Israel are unbreakable may also experience the same shock.
Yes, Afghanistan has been occupied, Iraq has been occupied, ethnic
and sectarian strifes have occurred, Israel has attacked Lebanon,
and the United States and Israel continue to threaten Syria and Iran.
However, the Middle East is undergoing a deep fracture that may
encompass Turkey. The transformation of this fracture into battlefronts
across the region might be much easier and faster than anyone thinks.
Everyone must realize that the opportunity to decide the future of
the region with peace and consensus is about to be lost. We are on
the threshold of a period that will cause ruination to Turks, Kurds,
Arabs, and Iranians and that will give the United States, Israel,
and their allies a chance to redesign the region to their tastes.
We need to be prudent. Turks, Kurds, Arabs, Iranians need prudence.
It will be disaster for all of us if we do not rid ourselves of all
of our prejudices and hostilities and do something for this region.
Turkish mothers as well as Kurdish mothers will cry. Outsiders
will build their schemes on these tears, on blood and anguish. If
we continue this way we can have Turkish-Kurdish wars, Arab-Kurdish
wars, and even Turkish-Iranian wars. If we continue this way, every
difference will turn - will be turned - into bloody conflicts.
For the first time, Turkey is acting resolutely against the threats
aimed at itself. The current posture may be limited to the PKK,
but the perception behind it appears to sense the more comprehensive
threat in all of its dimensions. Till now, Ankara appeared to believe
all the documents placed before it for the purpose of postponement
or distraction. Now it no longer takes such shows of insincerity
seriously. It is not just Turkey. All the parties to the crisis appear
to be preparing for a final reckoning and a final outcome.
Take a look at the United States. It has used every excuse to deceive
Turkey. It always told Turkey "not to enter the region under any
circumstances." Now, it is proposing a "joint operation." Supposedly,
it will participate in an operation aimed at a force it armed and
Israel trained. On the one hand, it supplies intelligence to the
PKK and the northern Iraqi administration and it arms them against
Turkey. On the other, it offers a partnership. Who will believe them?
Take a look at Barzani. He declared that "the PKK is not a terrorist
organization." He said: "We will fight against Turkey." Now, he is
asking the PKK to keep quiet and not to use Iraqi territory. He is
issuing statements. Who will believe him?
Take a look at Talabani. Soon after he declared that he "convinced
the PKK," there were bloody attacks [in Turkey]. A few days ago,
he said that "the PKK will declare a ceasefire." His remarks were
refuted that same day. He once said: "We will not hand over even a
cat to Turkey." Now, he is proposing to "hand over the PKK leaders."
He says that they "do not have the power to oppose the PKK," but at
the same time issues threatening statements against Turkey. In the
meantime, his son Kubat Talabani has threatened that "all of Turkey's
cities would go up in flames." Who would believe any of these?
Take a look at the Baghdad administration - the Baghdad government that
has no power or will to do anything. It declared that it will shut
down the PKK offices [in Iraq]. These offices were closed earlier on
another occasion. It demanded that the PKK leave Iraqi territory. Does
it expect the PKK to heed these calls?
However, pressure has produced results. Just look at how much they
changed their positions in one week! We can all see the contradictions,
the uncertainty, and the anxiety.
Now take a look at regional developments. Russian military sources
told the Kremlin: "Turkey has asked Iran for military support in
northern Iraq." These circles attribute Iranian President Mahmud
Ahmadinezhad's decision to cut his visit to Armenia short to this
development, although resignations in Tehran were publicly cited as
the reason for this decision. At the same time, Syria has ordered
its army to be prepared for war. The Damascus administration believes
that Israel will launch an attack before the Feast of the Sacrifice.
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has declared that Iran has crossed
its red lines on its path to becoming a nuclear power. Reports
across the world suggest that Turkey, which already has some military
operations under way in the region, will launch a sweeping campaign
in a few days.
For now, Turkey is engaged in military operations. Powers in the region
continue to provide full support to the forces that oppose Turkey. US
commanders continue to make observations along the [Turkish-Iraqi]
border.
I read all these developments as very serious steps that may lead to
a regional war - a war that would embroil Turkey and Syria. Balances
may change so quickly that friends may abruptly become enemies, and
adversaries turn into allies. This war may also abruptly turn into a
campaign against Iran. We hope that we do not reach that point. We
hope that a basis for compromise can be found among the parties to
the crisis. Otherwise, if this war starts, it can never be brought
to an end.
Yeni Safak website, Turkey
25 Oct 2007
Those who know about the delicate and fragile structure of Turkey's
immediate surroundings must be aware of what the current situation
means. Except for the occupation of Iraq, we have not encountered a
situation so grave as to threaten a transformation of the destiny of
our region. Those who insist on "changing the map of the Middle East"
and those who want to guarantee the current map and borders are on
the verge of an open war. Now we all know that those who are intent
on changing the map do not exempt Turkey from this process. We also
see that those who oppose breakups of nations are acting - virtually
being driven - to join forces.
If worst fears come true, the PKK [Kurdistan Workers' Party] attacks,
the political agenda of terrorists and the forces behind them, the
battle Turkey is waging against terrorism, and its efforts to prepare
for regional uncertainty may abruptly start a regional war. This is
a truly serious concern. Contrary to what is commonly thought, the
potential crisis may spread across the region so easily and quickly
that even those who have been trying everything they can to change
the map for years may be shocked. Indeed, much blood may be shed and
massacres may occur on these lands.
Those who view events in only one dimension, those who treat the PKK as
only a terrorist organization, those who confine the potential scale
of the conflict to the bounds of combating terrorism, and those who
take as an article of faith that ties between Turkey and the United
States and Israel are unbreakable may also experience the same shock.
Yes, Afghanistan has been occupied, Iraq has been occupied, ethnic
and sectarian strifes have occurred, Israel has attacked Lebanon,
and the United States and Israel continue to threaten Syria and Iran.
However, the Middle East is undergoing a deep fracture that may
encompass Turkey. The transformation of this fracture into battlefronts
across the region might be much easier and faster than anyone thinks.
Everyone must realize that the opportunity to decide the future of
the region with peace and consensus is about to be lost. We are on
the threshold of a period that will cause ruination to Turks, Kurds,
Arabs, and Iranians and that will give the United States, Israel,
and their allies a chance to redesign the region to their tastes.
We need to be prudent. Turks, Kurds, Arabs, Iranians need prudence.
It will be disaster for all of us if we do not rid ourselves of all
of our prejudices and hostilities and do something for this region.
Turkish mothers as well as Kurdish mothers will cry. Outsiders
will build their schemes on these tears, on blood and anguish. If
we continue this way we can have Turkish-Kurdish wars, Arab-Kurdish
wars, and even Turkish-Iranian wars. If we continue this way, every
difference will turn - will be turned - into bloody conflicts.
For the first time, Turkey is acting resolutely against the threats
aimed at itself. The current posture may be limited to the PKK,
but the perception behind it appears to sense the more comprehensive
threat in all of its dimensions. Till now, Ankara appeared to believe
all the documents placed before it for the purpose of postponement
or distraction. Now it no longer takes such shows of insincerity
seriously. It is not just Turkey. All the parties to the crisis appear
to be preparing for a final reckoning and a final outcome.
Take a look at the United States. It has used every excuse to deceive
Turkey. It always told Turkey "not to enter the region under any
circumstances." Now, it is proposing a "joint operation." Supposedly,
it will participate in an operation aimed at a force it armed and
Israel trained. On the one hand, it supplies intelligence to the
PKK and the northern Iraqi administration and it arms them against
Turkey. On the other, it offers a partnership. Who will believe them?
Take a look at Barzani. He declared that "the PKK is not a terrorist
organization." He said: "We will fight against Turkey." Now, he is
asking the PKK to keep quiet and not to use Iraqi territory. He is
issuing statements. Who will believe him?
Take a look at Talabani. Soon after he declared that he "convinced
the PKK," there were bloody attacks [in Turkey]. A few days ago,
he said that "the PKK will declare a ceasefire." His remarks were
refuted that same day. He once said: "We will not hand over even a
cat to Turkey." Now, he is proposing to "hand over the PKK leaders."
He says that they "do not have the power to oppose the PKK," but at
the same time issues threatening statements against Turkey. In the
meantime, his son Kubat Talabani has threatened that "all of Turkey's
cities would go up in flames." Who would believe any of these?
Take a look at the Baghdad administration - the Baghdad government that
has no power or will to do anything. It declared that it will shut
down the PKK offices [in Iraq]. These offices were closed earlier on
another occasion. It demanded that the PKK leave Iraqi territory. Does
it expect the PKK to heed these calls?
However, pressure has produced results. Just look at how much they
changed their positions in one week! We can all see the contradictions,
the uncertainty, and the anxiety.
Now take a look at regional developments. Russian military sources
told the Kremlin: "Turkey has asked Iran for military support in
northern Iraq." These circles attribute Iranian President Mahmud
Ahmadinezhad's decision to cut his visit to Armenia short to this
development, although resignations in Tehran were publicly cited as
the reason for this decision. At the same time, Syria has ordered
its army to be prepared for war. The Damascus administration believes
that Israel will launch an attack before the Feast of the Sacrifice.
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has declared that Iran has crossed
its red lines on its path to becoming a nuclear power. Reports
across the world suggest that Turkey, which already has some military
operations under way in the region, will launch a sweeping campaign
in a few days.
For now, Turkey is engaged in military operations. Powers in the region
continue to provide full support to the forces that oppose Turkey. US
commanders continue to make observations along the [Turkish-Iraqi]
border.
I read all these developments as very serious steps that may lead to
a regional war - a war that would embroil Turkey and Syria. Balances
may change so quickly that friends may abruptly become enemies, and
adversaries turn into allies. This war may also abruptly turn into a
campaign against Iran. We hope that we do not reach that point. We
hope that a basis for compromise can be found among the parties to
the crisis. Otherwise, if this war starts, it can never be brought
to an end.