Tweet
WHAT PROBLEMS IS THE EX-PRESIDENT ACTUALLY TRYING TO RESOLVE?
Hayots Ashkharh Daily, Armenia
Sept 27 2007
Politician ALEXANDER ISKANDARYAN answers the questions of "Hayots
Ashkharh"
"In spite of your prognoses, Levon Ter-Petrosyan has made a claim on
returning to active politics. You were, actually, mistaken."
"I have really said several times that I don't consider Levon
Ter-Petrosyan's nomination for presidency probable. Judging by the
responses, I have, perhaps, to admit that I might have been mistaken
in my 'calculations'. It is quite possible that I was really mistaken.
I am not absolutely convinced that Mr. Ter-Petrosyan will really
propose his candidacy for the presidential elections. Moreover, I
keep sticking to the viewpoint that he will not. Mr. Ter-Petrosyan's
speech creates more the impression of an 'experimental bullet'. And
that 'experimental bullet' can be said to have succeeded, considering
the storm that rose in the press and not only there.
It is a different matter what problem the ex-President is actually
trying to resolve. Is this how Mr. Ter-Petrosyan wants to say that
he is going to run for presidency? I repeat that I find it quite
possible. But I think that he will have no more 50 per cent chances
at best.
Why do I think so? Because Levon Ter-Petrosyan is an experienced
political figure, who can hardly be suspected of talking nonsense
for no particular reason. If he speaks after remaining silent for
such a long time, and he does so just today, on the threshold of the
presidential elections, there must be a specific political pre-text
for that. The issue is to what extent such step conforms to the
'claim for candidacy'. Personally I have doubts about that.
On the other hand, it is necessary to admit that the step is
characteristic of Levon Ter-Petrosyan who, as you remember, one
day published his well-known article, thus questioning his further
political biography. He could have refused to write that article. But
he wrote it because he found it necessary to do so; he found that the
country did not develop the right way and it was necessary to think
of something.
And now that the country is on the threshold of the presidential
elections and Robert Kocharyan is ending his term of office, he
probably deems it necessary to appear in public and say that in his
opinion the country is on the wrong path, and it is necessary to
radically change the current policy.
Does he believe he is capable of doing that? Perhaps, he does. And
what's mostly important, does he believe that it is realistic? As
much as this particular issue is concerned, I am not quite sure
about that. I even find it difficult to picture to myself that Levon
Ter-Petrosyan is really certain about his success; therefore it is
still early to say whether or not I was mistaken by saying that
Levon Ter-Petrosyan will not, in all probability, participate in
these presidential elections."
"And to what extent will the people make an 'adequate' response to
the strict criticism contained in the former President's speech. It
isn't as if the people had felt on their own back the 'constructive'
consequences of Mr. Ter-Petrosyan's tenure and haven't yet forgotten
those 'blissful' days."
"Leovn Ter-Petrosyan has actually said what is being currently
discussed by many people, including both the Opposition leaders
and the ordinary citizens whose major part is dissatisfied with the
authorities and finds that the country is in need of radical changes.
That's to say, there exists the playground on which the Opposition can
'play'.
But, isn't there a player on that ground? There isn't. That is, there
is a vacuum inside the Opposition camp, and Mr. Ter-Petrosyan's speech
has 'made a great fuss' in the 'empty barrel'.
If you ask whether this is enough for succeeding in the presidential
elections, I will say no. I don't think that Levon Ter-Petrosyan
can pretend on the majority's support, considering the unpleasant
memories from the 'cold and dark' years at the beginning of the
'90s. Although, I don't rule out the probability of being mistaken
in this case either. As they say, time will show."
"The former President conditions his 'decision', i.e. the outcome
of the dilemma of whether or not to nominate his candidacy, by the
prospect of the Opposition's forming a united front with him. Can
the pro-Opposition factions unite around the former President,
considering that they firmly opposed the policy adopted by the Armenian
pan-National Movement and particularly, Levon Ter-Petrosyan and they
are still denying it?"
"I have had the occasion to say and I am still convinced that the
Opposition in Armenia will not unite. Not because our pro-Opposition
factions or activists are bad, but because we do not have an opposition
as such. There are 'oppositions', and part of them can certainly
unite around some people, including Mr. Ter-Petrosyan. But as to
the prospect that the Opposition, as a whole, may unite and set up
some united front or initiate a movement against the authorities,
I don't find it possible.
Moreover, if the Opposition unites, it won't be enough for holding
victory in the elections. It isn't important whether they will
receive 10, 35 or 50 per cent of votes. Why? Because in Armenia it
is necessary to have minimum 70 per cent of votes in order to accede
to power, considering the administrative resources, the number of the
citizens having an inert and indifferent attitude towards the political
processes etc. Perhaps, theoretically it is possible, but in practice
I find the problem unsolvable at least for the coming 5-10 years.
Today it is necessary to create rather than unite the Opposition,
ensuring the social support that may serve as a basis for solving
certain problems. And in order to do that, it is necessary to transfer
the political struggle to the ideological domain, something that
Levon ter-Petorsyan is actually trying to do."
"In his historic speech made in 'Marriott-Armenia' hotel, the
former President stated that Armenia has no future unless the
Karabakh issue is resolved. And because 'Azerbaijan will make no
mutual concession', it remains to as to make the 'mutual concession'
falling to Azerbaijan's lot: in other words, to 'solve' the problem
at the cost of unilateral concessions. Does such 'ideology' allow
receiving 30-40 votes in Armenia, let alone 70 per cent?"
"In such situation I don't think it essential whether there will
be 1-2 per cent or 30-40 per cent of votes. If Mr. Ter-Petrosyan is
not convinced that he will receive 60-70 per cent of votes, he wont
propose his candidacy. That's why I say that I strongly doubt whether
he will participate in the elections after all."
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Hayots Ashkharh Daily, Armenia
Sept 27 2007
Politician ALEXANDER ISKANDARYAN answers the questions of "Hayots
Ashkharh"
"In spite of your prognoses, Levon Ter-Petrosyan has made a claim on
returning to active politics. You were, actually, mistaken."
"I have really said several times that I don't consider Levon
Ter-Petrosyan's nomination for presidency probable. Judging by the
responses, I have, perhaps, to admit that I might have been mistaken
in my 'calculations'. It is quite possible that I was really mistaken.
I am not absolutely convinced that Mr. Ter-Petrosyan will really
propose his candidacy for the presidential elections. Moreover, I
keep sticking to the viewpoint that he will not. Mr. Ter-Petrosyan's
speech creates more the impression of an 'experimental bullet'. And
that 'experimental bullet' can be said to have succeeded, considering
the storm that rose in the press and not only there.
It is a different matter what problem the ex-President is actually
trying to resolve. Is this how Mr. Ter-Petrosyan wants to say that
he is going to run for presidency? I repeat that I find it quite
possible. But I think that he will have no more 50 per cent chances
at best.
Why do I think so? Because Levon Ter-Petrosyan is an experienced
political figure, who can hardly be suspected of talking nonsense
for no particular reason. If he speaks after remaining silent for
such a long time, and he does so just today, on the threshold of the
presidential elections, there must be a specific political pre-text
for that. The issue is to what extent such step conforms to the
'claim for candidacy'. Personally I have doubts about that.
On the other hand, it is necessary to admit that the step is
characteristic of Levon Ter-Petrosyan who, as you remember, one
day published his well-known article, thus questioning his further
political biography. He could have refused to write that article. But
he wrote it because he found it necessary to do so; he found that the
country did not develop the right way and it was necessary to think
of something.
And now that the country is on the threshold of the presidential
elections and Robert Kocharyan is ending his term of office, he
probably deems it necessary to appear in public and say that in his
opinion the country is on the wrong path, and it is necessary to
radically change the current policy.
Does he believe he is capable of doing that? Perhaps, he does. And
what's mostly important, does he believe that it is realistic? As
much as this particular issue is concerned, I am not quite sure
about that. I even find it difficult to picture to myself that Levon
Ter-Petrosyan is really certain about his success; therefore it is
still early to say whether or not I was mistaken by saying that
Levon Ter-Petrosyan will not, in all probability, participate in
these presidential elections."
"And to what extent will the people make an 'adequate' response to
the strict criticism contained in the former President's speech. It
isn't as if the people had felt on their own back the 'constructive'
consequences of Mr. Ter-Petrosyan's tenure and haven't yet forgotten
those 'blissful' days."
"Leovn Ter-Petrosyan has actually said what is being currently
discussed by many people, including both the Opposition leaders
and the ordinary citizens whose major part is dissatisfied with the
authorities and finds that the country is in need of radical changes.
That's to say, there exists the playground on which the Opposition can
'play'.
But, isn't there a player on that ground? There isn't. That is, there
is a vacuum inside the Opposition camp, and Mr. Ter-Petrosyan's speech
has 'made a great fuss' in the 'empty barrel'.
If you ask whether this is enough for succeeding in the presidential
elections, I will say no. I don't think that Levon Ter-Petrosyan
can pretend on the majority's support, considering the unpleasant
memories from the 'cold and dark' years at the beginning of the
'90s. Although, I don't rule out the probability of being mistaken
in this case either. As they say, time will show."
"The former President conditions his 'decision', i.e. the outcome
of the dilemma of whether or not to nominate his candidacy, by the
prospect of the Opposition's forming a united front with him. Can
the pro-Opposition factions unite around the former President,
considering that they firmly opposed the policy adopted by the Armenian
pan-National Movement and particularly, Levon Ter-Petrosyan and they
are still denying it?"
"I have had the occasion to say and I am still convinced that the
Opposition in Armenia will not unite. Not because our pro-Opposition
factions or activists are bad, but because we do not have an opposition
as such. There are 'oppositions', and part of them can certainly
unite around some people, including Mr. Ter-Petrosyan. But as to
the prospect that the Opposition, as a whole, may unite and set up
some united front or initiate a movement against the authorities,
I don't find it possible.
Moreover, if the Opposition unites, it won't be enough for holding
victory in the elections. It isn't important whether they will
receive 10, 35 or 50 per cent of votes. Why? Because in Armenia it
is necessary to have minimum 70 per cent of votes in order to accede
to power, considering the administrative resources, the number of the
citizens having an inert and indifferent attitude towards the political
processes etc. Perhaps, theoretically it is possible, but in practice
I find the problem unsolvable at least for the coming 5-10 years.
Today it is necessary to create rather than unite the Opposition,
ensuring the social support that may serve as a basis for solving
certain problems. And in order to do that, it is necessary to transfer
the political struggle to the ideological domain, something that
Levon ter-Petorsyan is actually trying to do."
"In his historic speech made in 'Marriott-Armenia' hotel, the
former President stated that Armenia has no future unless the
Karabakh issue is resolved. And because 'Azerbaijan will make no
mutual concession', it remains to as to make the 'mutual concession'
falling to Azerbaijan's lot: in other words, to 'solve' the problem
at the cost of unilateral concessions. Does such 'ideology' allow
receiving 30-40 votes in Armenia, let alone 70 per cent?"
"In such situation I don't think it essential whether there will
be 1-2 per cent or 30-40 per cent of votes. If Mr. Ter-Petrosyan is
not convinced that he will receive 60-70 per cent of votes, he wont
propose his candidacy. That's why I say that I strongly doubt whether
he will participate in the elections after all."
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress