No announcement yet.

Kremlin seeks to thwart negotiations?

  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Kremlin seeks to thwart negotiations?


    Krem lin seeks to thwart negotiations?
    17:32 / 11/30/2009

    By Ivan Gharibyan

    The bellicose statements frequently made by high-ranking Azerbaijani
    officials at the most crucial stage of the Nagorno-Karabakh peace
    process suggest that a certain force is inspiring official Baku with
    its promises and advice. Considering the subtle geopolitical games in
    the South Caucasus, nothing can be stated with certainty, but some
    developments in the intensified Russian-Azerbaijani relations suggest
    a number of conclusions about joints efforts by Moscow and Baku aimed
    at thwarting the negotiations.

    Taking a close view of the development of Russian-Azerbaijani contacts
    over the last five months (Head of the RF Presidential Administration
    Sergey Naryshkin has paid three visits to Baku over the recent months)
    one would easily notice that, after President Ilham Aliyev's `courtesy
    visit' to Ulyanovsk, Azerbaijani Minister of Defense Safar Abiyev
    resumed talks about war as the only means of resolving the
    Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Immediately afterwards, Azerbaijani
    parliamentarians began discussing the possibility of Azerbaijan's
    joining the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). The
    Parliament members of the ruling party Yeni Azerbaijan (New
    Azerbaijan) made plain statements that closer relations with Russia
    may ensure a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in favor of

    All the steps are, on the one hand, suggestive of the desperate
    efforts by the Azerbaijani authorities, which are rushing from one
    geopolitical player to another. Considering Russia's long-term
    position on the necessity for maintaining the status quo in the
    region, which position was recently revised, Russia and the West may
    have had serious disagreements over spheres of influence at the last
    moment. The matter can also concern the consolidation of the Russian
    forces objecting to excessively rapid `restart' of the Russian-U.S.
    relations. Or rather, Moscow may have understood too late that its
    `fervent' wish to `put a dirty trick' to Ukraine by signing oil and
    gas agreements with Turkey may cost her the influence over the South

    As regards Georgia, there is nothing to speak about. Azerbaijan, in
    turn, has never been `famous' for its pro-Russian orientation. If
    reopened, the Armenian-Turkish border will seriously reduce the
    importance of Russian politico-military presence for Armenia. The
    Russian authorities may have arrived at a belated conclusion about the
    need for interfering in the processes going on in the South Caucasus.
    Since immediate interference in the Armenia-Turkey normalization
    process with `a minus sign' will thwart the resumption of contacts
    with the United States and affect Russia's economic interests,
    particularly its trade and economic relations with Turkey, Baku
    remains the only means of torpedoing the normalization processes.

    The Azerbaijani authorities, which are now facing the prospect of
    consenting to a referendum on Nagorno-Karabakh's status under
    international pressure, are an `excellent present' for any of the
    Great Powers should they have a wish to torpedo the peace process in
    the region. In this context the Kremlin may have thought up an idea of
    inciting Ilham Aliyev and his team to new bellicose statements despite
    the OSCE Minsk Group's appeals. Repeated threats of war may, one fine
    day, cause the Armenian authorities and people to change their moods
    with all the ensuring consequences...

    On the other hand, we should remember RF President Dmitry Medvedev's
    plain statement on the full agreement on the ways of settling the
    Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Russia and the West. In the
    immediate future we will see difference between words and deeds.

    Ivan Garibyan

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress