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There Is No Dream Solution In Karabakh Conflict

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  • There Is No Dream Solution In Karabakh Conflict

    by Oksana Musaelyan

    Wednesday, June 29, 15:47

    ArmInfo's exclusive interview with Laurence Broers, expert at
    Reconciliation Resources British NGO

    What are your expectations from the meeting of Armenian and Azerbaijan
    presidents in Kazan?

    The Minsk process works in a kind of boom and bust cycle, so it is
    always going up and down. It is just in the nature of the process.

    There is a reasonable chance that there will be some kind of document
    signed but I don't think these will be the Madrid Principles as we
    understand them, this will be may be some commitments or affirmation
    of the Madrid principles that gives the peace process another window
    of may be 5 years to take it forward.

    In terms of conflict results, I don't think it is either Ilham Aliev's
    or Serzh Sargsyan's interests at this moment that the peace process

    There is an opinion that Aliyev needs military rhetoric to stay in
    power. Do you think that any real progress is possible in the Karabakh
    process during Aliyev's presidency?

    There is a certain level of military rhetoric, that any leader of
    Azerbaijan at this moment in time needs to perpetuate. But I think
    this is a very destructive tendency. But for the peace process,
    Madrid principles to move forward there is a need to be a change in an
    official rhetoric. Just taking Azerbaijani position on its own terms,
    they want to reintegrate Karabakh, they want to share some space with
    Armenians, so they need to find a way to express that. Azerbaijan
    can be a place where Armenians can live. Instead, quite the opposite
    is happening.

    Military rhetoric is quite dangerous. You have a perception that
    Azerbaijan is becoming economic power, new military equipment, at
    the certain point they have to use this. This is a very big risk for
    Azerbaijani leadership. I don't think it is in their interests to
    launch a military invention right now.

    What component is the most important one in resolution of the conflict
    at the current stage?

    Karabakh society is an essential component. They are the heart of
    this conflict. Their perceptions of insecurity, of injustice and the
    lack of representation are the drivers of the Karabakh conflict. And
    their opposition articulated many times that the peace process and
    its current structure institutionalizes those inequalities.

    I was in Nagorny Karabakh a few days ago, and talking to the people
    living there. There is a limited appreciation of what's actually being
    talked about. The expectations of the Madrid principles, when you
    talk to people from one side and the other are diametrically opposed,
    so there is a lot of work that we need to do to educate the public
    on all sides of this conflict as to what the Madrid principles really
    mean and how their interests and the basic needs can be Secured.

    Karabakh Armenians except through some symbolic way through the fact
    that the president of Armenia is a Karabakh Armenian don't have a
    voice. A way for Karabakh Armenians to become part of this peace
    process is extremely important, I can't comment what can be the
    modalities of that, but it is absolutely essential because they have
    a veto power on the peace process and in the end we have to bring
    everybody in this process.

    In his speech at PACE, Serzh Sargsyan said that the document on the
    negotiating table is not a dream for the Armenian party supposing
    that concessions by the Armenian party must guarantee constructive
    negotiations. Whose dream can it be, in fact?

    This much depends on the subjective understanding of what is the
    Armenian dream. The Armenian dream can be understood to be maximalist
    or it can be understood as pragmatic. I am sure that it is also not
    an Azerbaijani dream. There is no dream solution in this conflict.

    Everybody has to compromise at some level.