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ARMENIA: PRESIDENT RESHUFFLES GOVERNMENT AHEAD OF ELECTIONS
EurasiaNet.org
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/64580
Nov 24 2011
NY
A EurasiaNet Partner Post from: STRATFOR
During the past month, several Armenian government officials either
resigned or were dismissed by Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian,
including high-ranking figures such as Armenian Police Chief Alik
Sarkisian and Yerevan Mayor and Presidential Chief of Staff Karen
Karpetyan. There are also indications in Armenian media that the wave
of dismissals and resignations will continue.
Political reshuffles have occurred in Armenia before, but the timing of
this wave of dismissals and resignations could indicate that President
Sarkisian is engaged in a power struggle with former Armenian President
Robert Kocharian, who still has supporters within the government. That
struggle could play out in Armenia's upcoming parliamentary elections
and eventually affect some areas of Armenia's foreign policy, though
it would not change Armenia's overall strategic relations with its
power patron, Russia.
The political shakeup comes ahead of Armenia's parliamentary elections,
slated for May 2012. Not long before the round of dismissals and
resignations began, Kocharian said in an interview with Armenian
news agency Mediamax that he has not ruled out returning to Armenia's
national political scene. Many of the officials affected by the shakeup
are rumored to have connections to Kocharian, so it is possible that
Sarkisian reshuffled these officials in an attempt to limit Kocharian's
support base within the government before the elections.
Armenia's parliamentary elections typically serve as a springboard to
presidential elections, and Sarkisian wants to preserve his majority in
parliament. Sarkisian's Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) holds 64 of
the parliament's 131 seats and is in a coalition with the Prosperous
Armenia Party (PAP), which currently holds 18 seats.
However, the PAP's leader, wealthy businessman Gagik Tsarukian,
is believed to be close to Kocharian. If Tsarukian should decide to
leave the coalition with the RPA, Sarkisian will no longer have a
majority in parliament, which would make it easier for Kocharian to
return to the national political scene and vie for power in the next
presidential election.
No matter the outcome of a political contest between Sarkisian and
Kocharian, one aspect of Armenian policy will not change: Yerevan's
relationship with Moscow. An alliance with Russia is a geopolitical
imperative for Armenia, and Moscow has taken steps to ensure Armenia's
dependence on Russia. However, as Armenia's future will be shaped by
the upcoming formation of the Moscow-led Eurasian Union, Armenia's
policy in other areas, including relations with neighbors such as
Turkey, Iran or Azerbaijan - could be affected. Much could change
in the months before Armenia's parliamentary elections, but the
significance of the reshuffles and Kocharian's possible role in
national politics will be important in determining the future of
Armenia's political landscape.
From: Baghdasarian
EurasiaNet.org
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/64580
Nov 24 2011
NY
A EurasiaNet Partner Post from: STRATFOR
During the past month, several Armenian government officials either
resigned or were dismissed by Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian,
including high-ranking figures such as Armenian Police Chief Alik
Sarkisian and Yerevan Mayor and Presidential Chief of Staff Karen
Karpetyan. There are also indications in Armenian media that the wave
of dismissals and resignations will continue.
Political reshuffles have occurred in Armenia before, but the timing of
this wave of dismissals and resignations could indicate that President
Sarkisian is engaged in a power struggle with former Armenian President
Robert Kocharian, who still has supporters within the government. That
struggle could play out in Armenia's upcoming parliamentary elections
and eventually affect some areas of Armenia's foreign policy, though
it would not change Armenia's overall strategic relations with its
power patron, Russia.
The political shakeup comes ahead of Armenia's parliamentary elections,
slated for May 2012. Not long before the round of dismissals and
resignations began, Kocharian said in an interview with Armenian
news agency Mediamax that he has not ruled out returning to Armenia's
national political scene. Many of the officials affected by the shakeup
are rumored to have connections to Kocharian, so it is possible that
Sarkisian reshuffled these officials in an attempt to limit Kocharian's
support base within the government before the elections.
Armenia's parliamentary elections typically serve as a springboard to
presidential elections, and Sarkisian wants to preserve his majority in
parliament. Sarkisian's Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) holds 64 of
the parliament's 131 seats and is in a coalition with the Prosperous
Armenia Party (PAP), which currently holds 18 seats.
However, the PAP's leader, wealthy businessman Gagik Tsarukian,
is believed to be close to Kocharian. If Tsarukian should decide to
leave the coalition with the RPA, Sarkisian will no longer have a
majority in parliament, which would make it easier for Kocharian to
return to the national political scene and vie for power in the next
presidential election.
No matter the outcome of a political contest between Sarkisian and
Kocharian, one aspect of Armenian policy will not change: Yerevan's
relationship with Moscow. An alliance with Russia is a geopolitical
imperative for Armenia, and Moscow has taken steps to ensure Armenia's
dependence on Russia. However, as Armenia's future will be shaped by
the upcoming formation of the Moscow-led Eurasian Union, Armenia's
policy in other areas, including relations with neighbors such as
Turkey, Iran or Azerbaijan - could be affected. Much could change
in the months before Armenia's parliamentary elections, but the
significance of the reshuffles and Kocharian's possible role in
national politics will be important in determining the future of
Armenia's political landscape.
From: Baghdasarian