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KOCHARYAN WAIVED PUTIN'S SUPPORT
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments24874.html
Published: 13:22:30 - 20/01/2012
In Armenia, the news of the establishment of the Putin Club again
spurred discussions that the prime minister and the next possible
president of Russia can thus bid on Robert Kocharyan whom he trusts
more than Serzh Sargsyan.
Judging by intensive meetings between Putin and Kocharyan during Serzh
Sargsyan~Rs office, these suggestions seem to be grounded. In this
period, Putin has had more meetings with Kocharyan than Serzh Sargsyan.
However, in the atmosphere of the geopolitical environment, global
change, systemic reforms in the world, it is better to keep away from
Putin, considering, to put it mildly, the conservatism of the prime
minister of Russia and his nostalgia for the Soviet system. Not
personal relations are meant but political intimacy. This is by
the way.
On the other hand, Putin~Rs nostalgia for the Soviet times can
be mostly propaganda, considering the presence of a considerable
electorate which votes for it but the elections to Duma showed that
this electorate does not decide anything now and a new generation of
voters has appeared in Russia.
The post-election developments in Russia indicated that it is
impossible not to take into account this generation, and Putin will
have to take into account the new reality. The point is not being
or not being a president. The point is that if Putin returns to the
office of president, he will not be the same as he was during his
first two terms and in the office of prime minister.
The next reason why Putin is not the same any more is the difficult
economic situation of Russia. The ex-minister of finance and ex-vice
prime minister Kudrin announced a few days ago that increasing the
retirement age is already an urgent need because the deficit of the
retirement fund already comprises about 2% of the GDP. It is a huge
number, a major social problem for Russia. Oil and gas are sometimes
helpful to forget the problem but are not a solution because the
solution requires economic and political reforms.
Putin will have to take account of this situation or one day he will
have to take a car and leave the Kremlin to his successor and retire
like Yeltzin.
In other words, the prime minister is facing the so-called early
retirement to avoid which he will have to make decisions that will
contradict to his own wishes, outlook and values. In other words,
Putin is facing the urgent issue of satisfying pensioners and providing
a relatively stable and predictable timeline for his own retirement
and he will hardly have time and wish to deal with the rotation of
the government in Armenia.
He will deal with it only if essential disagreement and controversy on
review of political and economic actions occurs between him and Serzh
Sargsyan. In this sense, however, Serzh Sargsyan does not appear
likely to enter into a conflict with Russia, and the West which
imposes demands for essential reforms does not impose controversy
with Russia, understanding the possible destabilizing effect of it
and the dangerous prospect of extreme action.
Apparently, Robert Kocharyan knows it is useless to expect Putin~Rs
support, evidence to which is the pronouncement by Kocharyan a
few months ago. When it became known that Putin will run in the
presidential elections, a discussion of Kocharyan~Rs possible return
began. The second president announced that he is surprised to see a
discussion of a direct relationship between the political process in
Russia and his possible return, especially after the celebration of
the 20th anniversary of Independence. ~SI believe that the political
processes must mature here in Armenia rather than be projected from
the outside.~T
In addition, his statement of September has been the most valuable
and model statement by Robert Kocharyan since he left office.
Of course, if Putin had sworn to help Kocharyan, Kocharyan would not
announce about it publicly. But silence is one thing and expressing
a position publicly is another thing because politics is first of
all public speech which marks the onset of responsibility.
From: Baghdasarian
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments24874.html
Published: 13:22:30 - 20/01/2012
In Armenia, the news of the establishment of the Putin Club again
spurred discussions that the prime minister and the next possible
president of Russia can thus bid on Robert Kocharyan whom he trusts
more than Serzh Sargsyan.
Judging by intensive meetings between Putin and Kocharyan during Serzh
Sargsyan~Rs office, these suggestions seem to be grounded. In this
period, Putin has had more meetings with Kocharyan than Serzh Sargsyan.
However, in the atmosphere of the geopolitical environment, global
change, systemic reforms in the world, it is better to keep away from
Putin, considering, to put it mildly, the conservatism of the prime
minister of Russia and his nostalgia for the Soviet system. Not
personal relations are meant but political intimacy. This is by
the way.
On the other hand, Putin~Rs nostalgia for the Soviet times can
be mostly propaganda, considering the presence of a considerable
electorate which votes for it but the elections to Duma showed that
this electorate does not decide anything now and a new generation of
voters has appeared in Russia.
The post-election developments in Russia indicated that it is
impossible not to take into account this generation, and Putin will
have to take into account the new reality. The point is not being
or not being a president. The point is that if Putin returns to the
office of president, he will not be the same as he was during his
first two terms and in the office of prime minister.
The next reason why Putin is not the same any more is the difficult
economic situation of Russia. The ex-minister of finance and ex-vice
prime minister Kudrin announced a few days ago that increasing the
retirement age is already an urgent need because the deficit of the
retirement fund already comprises about 2% of the GDP. It is a huge
number, a major social problem for Russia. Oil and gas are sometimes
helpful to forget the problem but are not a solution because the
solution requires economic and political reforms.
Putin will have to take account of this situation or one day he will
have to take a car and leave the Kremlin to his successor and retire
like Yeltzin.
In other words, the prime minister is facing the so-called early
retirement to avoid which he will have to make decisions that will
contradict to his own wishes, outlook and values. In other words,
Putin is facing the urgent issue of satisfying pensioners and providing
a relatively stable and predictable timeline for his own retirement
and he will hardly have time and wish to deal with the rotation of
the government in Armenia.
He will deal with it only if essential disagreement and controversy on
review of political and economic actions occurs between him and Serzh
Sargsyan. In this sense, however, Serzh Sargsyan does not appear
likely to enter into a conflict with Russia, and the West which
imposes demands for essential reforms does not impose controversy
with Russia, understanding the possible destabilizing effect of it
and the dangerous prospect of extreme action.
Apparently, Robert Kocharyan knows it is useless to expect Putin~Rs
support, evidence to which is the pronouncement by Kocharyan a
few months ago. When it became known that Putin will run in the
presidential elections, a discussion of Kocharyan~Rs possible return
began. The second president announced that he is surprised to see a
discussion of a direct relationship between the political process in
Russia and his possible return, especially after the celebration of
the 20th anniversary of Independence. ~SI believe that the political
processes must mature here in Armenia rather than be projected from
the outside.~T
In addition, his statement of September has been the most valuable
and model statement by Robert Kocharyan since he left office.
Of course, if Putin had sworn to help Kocharyan, Kocharyan would not
announce about it publicly. But silence is one thing and expressing
a position publicly is another thing because politics is first of
all public speech which marks the onset of responsibility.
From: Baghdasarian