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POST-ELECTION SHOCKS UNLIKELY TO OCCUR IN IRAN, SAYS IRANIAN STUDIES EXPERT
14:04 04/06/2013 " ANALYSIS
According to surveys presented by Iranian websites, Mohammad
Baqer Qalibaf, the mayor of Tehran, Ali Akbar Velayati, Khamenei's
foreign policy adviser, and Saeed Jalili, the chief negotiator for
Iran's nuclear program, are the top presidential candidates with,
respectively, 26.1%, 17,2% and 9.9%. Mohammad Reza Aref, First Vice
President from 1997 to 2005 under President Mohammad Khatami, is the
fourth top candidate, Iranian studies expert Armen Israyelyan told
Panorama.am when commenting on the election race in Iran.
"As it was expected, the election campaign is proceeding calmly,
without tensions after former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and
Esfandiar Rahim Mashaie, a close aide to outgoing president Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad, were barred from running in the Iranian presidential
elections. The candidates use all legal platforms in their campaign,
one debate has taken place between the presidential contenders,"
the Iranian studies expert said.
According to the expert, the main struggle is between the conservative
and reformist candidates. "The two sides criticize each other,
pointing to omissions in economy, nuclear program, foreign and
domestic policy during the years when they were in office. Besides,
reformist candidates also compete with reformists and conservative
candidates with conservatives to secure their place in the further
election race. It is worth mentioning that there is no significant
difference in the candidates' positions on Iran's nuclear program
and foreign policy, they just have different accents," Israyelyan said.
Asked which candidate has the biggest chances of victory, the expert
did not rule out the possibility of a presidential run-off and said,
"Judging by the current arrangement of Iran's political forces and
the capabilities of the candidates, I can say that for the present, no
withdrawals will occur, and, until a certain period of time, the main
struggle will be between conservative candidates Velayati, Jalili and
Qalibaf and reformist candidates Rohani and Aref. In the last days of
the election campaign, Iran's Supreme Leader will perhaps voice his
support for one of the candidates and it will then become clear who
will be elected President. But it is not ruled out that there will
be a run-off between one reformist and one conservative candidate."
Speaking of the possibility of post-election shocks, the Iranian
studies expert said that they are unlikely to occur because there is
no strong competition between the current candidates and the Guardian
Council of clerics and jurists, barring Rafsanjani and Mashaie
from running in the elections, secured safety from post-election
developments.
"The Iranian authorities keep control of the situation, with security
forces taking tough measures to keep the country safe from external
interference. The Iranian Deputy Interior Minister has recently
said that Iran could close borders on the election day. Earlier, two
men who the Iranian government said worked as spies for Israel and
the United States were hanged in Iran. These two facts are a clear
"message" to those forces that will try to destabilize the country
after the elections," Israyelyan concluded.
Source: Panorama.am
14:04 04/06/2013 " ANALYSIS
According to surveys presented by Iranian websites, Mohammad
Baqer Qalibaf, the mayor of Tehran, Ali Akbar Velayati, Khamenei's
foreign policy adviser, and Saeed Jalili, the chief negotiator for
Iran's nuclear program, are the top presidential candidates with,
respectively, 26.1%, 17,2% and 9.9%. Mohammad Reza Aref, First Vice
President from 1997 to 2005 under President Mohammad Khatami, is the
fourth top candidate, Iranian studies expert Armen Israyelyan told
Panorama.am when commenting on the election race in Iran.
"As it was expected, the election campaign is proceeding calmly,
without tensions after former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and
Esfandiar Rahim Mashaie, a close aide to outgoing president Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad, were barred from running in the Iranian presidential
elections. The candidates use all legal platforms in their campaign,
one debate has taken place between the presidential contenders,"
the Iranian studies expert said.
According to the expert, the main struggle is between the conservative
and reformist candidates. "The two sides criticize each other,
pointing to omissions in economy, nuclear program, foreign and
domestic policy during the years when they were in office. Besides,
reformist candidates also compete with reformists and conservative
candidates with conservatives to secure their place in the further
election race. It is worth mentioning that there is no significant
difference in the candidates' positions on Iran's nuclear program
and foreign policy, they just have different accents," Israyelyan said.
Asked which candidate has the biggest chances of victory, the expert
did not rule out the possibility of a presidential run-off and said,
"Judging by the current arrangement of Iran's political forces and
the capabilities of the candidates, I can say that for the present, no
withdrawals will occur, and, until a certain period of time, the main
struggle will be between conservative candidates Velayati, Jalili and
Qalibaf and reformist candidates Rohani and Aref. In the last days of
the election campaign, Iran's Supreme Leader will perhaps voice his
support for one of the candidates and it will then become clear who
will be elected President. But it is not ruled out that there will
be a run-off between one reformist and one conservative candidate."
Speaking of the possibility of post-election shocks, the Iranian
studies expert said that they are unlikely to occur because there is
no strong competition between the current candidates and the Guardian
Council of clerics and jurists, barring Rafsanjani and Mashaie
from running in the elections, secured safety from post-election
developments.
"The Iranian authorities keep control of the situation, with security
forces taking tough measures to keep the country safe from external
interference. The Iranian Deputy Interior Minister has recently
said that Iran could close borders on the election day. Earlier, two
men who the Iranian government said worked as spies for Israel and
the United States were hanged in Iran. These two facts are a clear
"message" to those forces that will try to destabilize the country
after the elections," Israyelyan concluded.
Source: Panorama.am