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Psychological Offensive Against Raffi Hovannisian

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  • Psychological Offensive Against Raffi Hovannisian


    11:13 26/03/2013
    Story from News:

    Raffi Hovannisian did not hurry to answer Serzh Sargsyan and promised
    to do it later in written form. Hovannisian will publish his reply
    before sending it because he has promised to refrain from closed
    conversations and contacts with the government and other political

    Ostensibly, Serzh Sargsyan's reply gave Hovannisian a surprise,
    and he did not expect to have to reply to such a reply. Otherwise,
    Raffi Hovannisian would have predicted this scenario and would not
    have delayed his reply. It is not ruled out that Hovannisian had a
    scenario but there is another issue.

    Perhaps it is not so difficult for Raffi Hovannisian to reply to Serzh
    Sargsyan as to explain and substantiate his decision to his supporters
    and partners on Freedom Square in case the option of negotiating with
    Serzh Sargsyan and stopping his hunger strike is chosen.

    It is not clear what Raffi Hovannisian will say but it is obvious
    that communication with the square will be complicated, especially
    that the PAP and ANC have launched a psychological offensive against
    Raffi Hovannisian whose plans are not in line with the negotiations
    between Raffi Hovannisian and Serzh Sargsyan.

    These negotiations will shade the battle for Yerevan, and though
    Yerevan is half of Armenia and victory will create a counterbalance
    to the monopoly of the Republican Party, there is a corner stone,
    the Constitution, which vests only local powers in the mayor.

    In Armenia enforcement of the Constitution and laws is very weak,
    of course because the central government does not need that. As soon
    as needed, they are enforced "severely". Consequently, the forces
    which have stood up for the battle imagine that the main problem
    will be the fight for the role of leader and strengthening their
    foothold and remain viable ahead of 2017-2018 and preventing an early
    parliamentary election.

    When Serzh Sargsyan and Raffi Hovannisian launch negotiations, it
    will necessitate recognition of the Heritage as the leader of the
    opposition, at least if the negotiations are an imitation. In addition,
    it must be an international recognition to some extent. As a result,
    the recognition may have different formalizations. And though in
    this scenario Raffi Hovannisian may lose part of its public platform,
    especially considering the existence of radical groups and important
    personalities who are not prone to concessions, it may not have much
    importance because formalization will lead to a new situation when
    failure will not be a return to the status quo.

    The problem will be further complicated if Raffi Hovannisian is able
    to keep the square vibrant and viable and to negotiate with Serzh
    Sargsyan not as Raffi Hovannisian but as the mediator or representative
    of people as he put it once.

    In that case, the negotiations will not be imitation but a real
    process, which is not desirable for the forces which are up for a
    battle for Yerevan.

    But before that Raffi Hovannisian needs to resolve the key issue and
    explain substantially why he will accept Serzh Sargsyan's proposal if
    he is going to accept it and not the contrary, he is going to refuse
    in written form.

    Although, the golden middle is possible when Raffi Hovannisian
    will agree to negotiate but will put forth certain conditions and
    reservations as a guarantee that if Serzh Sargsyan retreats, he will
    have space to retreat.

    Generally, negotiations will not favor neither Serzh Sargsyan, nor
    Raffi Hovannisian, especially that the scarcity of the potential
    of negotiations is obvious. The negotiation is a necessary protocol
    process for the time being so both will prefer protracting the preamble
    as long as possible through mutual acts, at least in parallel with
    the mayoral election in Yerevan.

    From: Baghdasarian