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Next Election Is Oligarchy's Last Chance

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  • Next Election Is Oligarchy's Last Chance

    Siranuysh Papyan

    Story from News:
    11:57 26/03/2013

    Interview with ethnographer Aghassi Tadevosyan

    Aghassi, what do you think about the post-electoral and political

    The latest elections were held in an essentially different situation.

    First, the civil background of the political processes was different.

    In 2008, the movement occurred after the elections and the intellectual
    and civil discourse during the last five years influenced the civil
    potential of the society. The next important thing is the internal
    change of the authorities. If during 2008 elections, the oligarchic
    system had another authority to replace Robert Kocharyan, now there
    is no individual in the oligarchic clan ready to substitute Serzh
    Sargsyan. This is a serious issue for the government which may lead
    to a crisis, the first signs of which are already visible.

    The oligarchic capitalism and the Republican Party which represents
    the oligarchy's interests face serious challenges. The main
    issue in Armenia is transformation of oligarchic capitalism into
    liberal-democratic one, which is a serious process and I'm sure that
    Serzh Sargsyan and reasonable Republicans are interested in it too.

    The situation is interesting: in case Serzh Sargsyan realizes the
    necessity of the transformation, he won't be able to avoid rough
    policy in relation to his allies - the oligarchs. For this, he
    needs an alternative source of rough force against the oligarchy. If
    Republicans and Serzh Sargsyan realize the importance of this issue,
    the politicization of the activities of the Republican Party will enter
    the political agenda. Dwelling on the politicization of activities
    of a political party may sound strange, but it is not a secret that
    the application of the clan principle is of key importance in the
    activities of this party. But the situation is changing and this
    approach won't be enough. Without internal transformations, the
    party will be unable to be adequate to the new situation and play a
    serious role in the formation of power. The main aim of politicization
    of the party is to become an actor in the solution of transitive
    political-economic issues of the country.

    I suppose those forces which will be constructive participants of
    this process will be the country's future influential political
    forces. The political sector of the Republican Party can't resolve
    this issue alone. As a majority party, it needs the support of an
    opposition that enjoys public respect, even cooperation with it. In
    all the developed countries of the world, the opposition and the
    government cooperate and don't dream about eliminating each other. I
    think, for the sake of further development of Armenia, and in order
    to avoid clashes and civil unrests, Serzh Sargsyan needs to carry
    out reforms to resolve the aforementioned issue. In order to do that
    and to avoid strong resistance of the oligarchy, Serzh Sargsyan will
    need to rely on a different force rather than the oligarchy. This
    force can be the society, and here Serzh Sargsyan will need Raffi
    Hovannisian. I think their cooperation at this moment would be the
    best way of solution of the urgent issues facing Armenia.

    The issue is the following: Serzh Sargsyan will either have to
    carry out changes, or his party will face serious issues regarding
    reproduction. Otherwise, the upcoming elections are fraught with
    serious consequences for Armenia, if Serzh Sargsyan is certainly able
    to keep the office of the president until the next elections. If the
    situation does not change, the government will run into a crisis.

    Raffi Hovannisian acts very cleverly and takes calculated steps. In
    reality, Raffi Hovannisian's tactics is substantial and the proposals
    he made to Serzh Sargsyan stem from the challenges Armenia is facing.

    Transformation of oligarchic capitalism into liberal-democratic
    capitalism is in line with the interests of the leaders of both the
    opposition and the government. I shall repeat that Serzh Sargsyan
    is responsible for the solution of this issue, and in order to be
    able to counteract resistance of the oligarchy he needs the society,
    which can be consolidated by Raffi Hovannisian.