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PIPES: CYPRUS RIDES A TROUBLED SEA OF OIL AND GAS OPPORTUNITY
By Daniel Pipes
Tuesday, November 5, 2013
Enlarge Photo
Illustration by Alexander Hunter for The Washington Times more >
The republic of Cyprus has entered into the maelstrom of the world's
most volatile region, thanks to newfound gas and oil reserves,
combined with an erratic Turkish foreign policy and a civil war in
Syria. Even as leaders of this Mediterranean island show skill dealing
with these novel threats and opportunities, they need support from
a strong U.S. Navy, something not now available.
Cypriot underwater gas and oil discoveries follow directly on ones
found earlier in Israeli seas, located adjacent to them and uncovered
by the same American (Noble) and Israeli (Delek, Avner) companies. The
current estimate of 5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, as well as
some oil, has a value estimated at $800 billion, a huge sum for a small
country whose current gross domestic product is a mere $24 billion.
The great majority of this energy will likely be exported to Turkey
or Europe. A pipeline to Turkey would be cheapest and easiest but
so long as Turkish troops continue to occupy 36 percent of Cyprus,
this will not happen. A recent court decision permitting the Israeli
government to decide what quantities of energy to export now offers
other possibilities: Cyprus could swap gas with Israel that then goes
to Turkey, or the two allies could jointly build a liquefied natural
gas terminal in Cyprus.
Eventually, should Egypt, Gaza, Lebanon and Syria find gas and join
the modern world, they too could take part, turning the area between
Egypt andCyprus into a truly major resource. According to the U.S.
Geological Survey, the contiguous Nile Delta and Levantine basins
together contain an estimated 345 trillion cubic feet of natural gas
and 3.44 billion barrels of oil.
These newfound reserves can help either solve or inflame the Cyprus
problem. The Cypriot government wisely delimited its maritime
boundaries withEgypt in 2003, Lebanon in 2007 and Israel in 2010. It
has contracted new exploration to France's Total, Italy's Eni and
South Korea's Kogas. Energy-hungry Turkey looms over this treasure,
however. Ankara wants its northern Cyprus puppet-state to receive part
of the income from the new reserves, while Turkey's 1974 invasion of
the island raises fears that its erratic and roguish prime minister,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, might invade the republic's territory.
Mr. Erdogan and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu have pursued an
ambitious foreign policy of "zero problems with neighbors" which,
ironically, has led instead to zero friends. Strained relations
with Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Israel, the
Palestinian Authority, Saudi Arabia,Egypt and Serbia raise the prospect
of Ankara reverting to an older Turkish pattern of lashing out at
Cyprus and Greece. In both cases, for instance, it could encourage
disruptive refugee flows.
This is where the brutal civil war underway in Syria, just 70 miles
away, enters the equation. So far, that conflict has not had a major
impact onCyprus, but the island's proximity, its minimal defense
capabilities, and its membership in the European Union make it
exceedingly vulnerable (an illegal immigrant setting foot on Cyprus is
close to reaching Germany or France). The 2.2 million refugees from
Syria since 2011 have so far bypassed Cyprus in favor of Lebanon,
Jordan, Turkey, Egypt and Iraq, in that order. However, this could
quickly change if the Alawites living closest to Cyprus take to the
sea in sizable numbers, or if Ankara encourages Syrians to emigrate
to northern Cyprus and then sneak across the border into the republic.
Unlike nearby Israel, which is also surrounded, Cyprus lacks either
a military option or protective fences: The personnel of the Turkish
armed forces, about 700,000 strong, approximate the size of the entire
population in the republic of Cyprus - about 850,000. Put another way,
Turkey's population outnumbers that of Cyprus by nearly 100 times.
Nicosia can, however, create alliances, especially with Israel, to
enhance its security. Israel in turn gains by combined gas operations,
strategic depth for its air force and a diplomatic friend. As an aide
to Cyprus' President Nicos Anastasiades told me, "We are Israel's
ambassador in the European Union."
So far, so good. The U.S. Navy, though, has been hollowed out in
the Mediterranean Sea to the point that Seth Cropsey, a former Navy
official, describes the 6th Fleet as just a command ship in Italy and
a few ballistic-missile destroyers in Spain. This force urgently needs
to be revitalized to support America's Levantine allies as tensions
further heighten in their immediate region.
Daniel Pipes (DanielPipes.org), president of the Middle East Forum,
recently visited Cyprus.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/nov/5/pipes-cyprus-rides-a-troubled-sea-of-oil-and-gas-o/
By Daniel Pipes
Tuesday, November 5, 2013
Enlarge Photo
Illustration by Alexander Hunter for The Washington Times more >
The republic of Cyprus has entered into the maelstrom of the world's
most volatile region, thanks to newfound gas and oil reserves,
combined with an erratic Turkish foreign policy and a civil war in
Syria. Even as leaders of this Mediterranean island show skill dealing
with these novel threats and opportunities, they need support from
a strong U.S. Navy, something not now available.
Cypriot underwater gas and oil discoveries follow directly on ones
found earlier in Israeli seas, located adjacent to them and uncovered
by the same American (Noble) and Israeli (Delek, Avner) companies. The
current estimate of 5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, as well as
some oil, has a value estimated at $800 billion, a huge sum for a small
country whose current gross domestic product is a mere $24 billion.
The great majority of this energy will likely be exported to Turkey
or Europe. A pipeline to Turkey would be cheapest and easiest but
so long as Turkish troops continue to occupy 36 percent of Cyprus,
this will not happen. A recent court decision permitting the Israeli
government to decide what quantities of energy to export now offers
other possibilities: Cyprus could swap gas with Israel that then goes
to Turkey, or the two allies could jointly build a liquefied natural
gas terminal in Cyprus.
Eventually, should Egypt, Gaza, Lebanon and Syria find gas and join
the modern world, they too could take part, turning the area between
Egypt andCyprus into a truly major resource. According to the U.S.
Geological Survey, the contiguous Nile Delta and Levantine basins
together contain an estimated 345 trillion cubic feet of natural gas
and 3.44 billion barrels of oil.
These newfound reserves can help either solve or inflame the Cyprus
problem. The Cypriot government wisely delimited its maritime
boundaries withEgypt in 2003, Lebanon in 2007 and Israel in 2010. It
has contracted new exploration to France's Total, Italy's Eni and
South Korea's Kogas. Energy-hungry Turkey looms over this treasure,
however. Ankara wants its northern Cyprus puppet-state to receive part
of the income from the new reserves, while Turkey's 1974 invasion of
the island raises fears that its erratic and roguish prime minister,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, might invade the republic's territory.
Mr. Erdogan and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu have pursued an
ambitious foreign policy of "zero problems with neighbors" which,
ironically, has led instead to zero friends. Strained relations
with Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Israel, the
Palestinian Authority, Saudi Arabia,Egypt and Serbia raise the prospect
of Ankara reverting to an older Turkish pattern of lashing out at
Cyprus and Greece. In both cases, for instance, it could encourage
disruptive refugee flows.
This is where the brutal civil war underway in Syria, just 70 miles
away, enters the equation. So far, that conflict has not had a major
impact onCyprus, but the island's proximity, its minimal defense
capabilities, and its membership in the European Union make it
exceedingly vulnerable (an illegal immigrant setting foot on Cyprus is
close to reaching Germany or France). The 2.2 million refugees from
Syria since 2011 have so far bypassed Cyprus in favor of Lebanon,
Jordan, Turkey, Egypt and Iraq, in that order. However, this could
quickly change if the Alawites living closest to Cyprus take to the
sea in sizable numbers, or if Ankara encourages Syrians to emigrate
to northern Cyprus and then sneak across the border into the republic.
Unlike nearby Israel, which is also surrounded, Cyprus lacks either
a military option or protective fences: The personnel of the Turkish
armed forces, about 700,000 strong, approximate the size of the entire
population in the republic of Cyprus - about 850,000. Put another way,
Turkey's population outnumbers that of Cyprus by nearly 100 times.
Nicosia can, however, create alliances, especially with Israel, to
enhance its security. Israel in turn gains by combined gas operations,
strategic depth for its air force and a diplomatic friend. As an aide
to Cyprus' President Nicos Anastasiades told me, "We are Israel's
ambassador in the European Union."
So far, so good. The U.S. Navy, though, has been hollowed out in
the Mediterranean Sea to the point that Seth Cropsey, a former Navy
official, describes the 6th Fleet as just a command ship in Italy and
a few ballistic-missile destroyers in Spain. This force urgently needs
to be revitalized to support America's Levantine allies as tensions
further heighten in their immediate region.
Daniel Pipes (DanielPipes.org), president of the Middle East Forum,
recently visited Cyprus.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/nov/5/pipes-cyprus-rides-a-troubled-sea-of-oil-and-gas-o/