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PROBLEMS OF ARMENIA JOINING THE CUSTOMS UNION
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Sept 13 2013
13 September 2013 - 11:52am
By Vestnik Kavkaza
After the statement by President of Armenia Serge Sargsyan that his
country intends to join the Customs Union, representatives of the
Russian government and the Eurasian Economic Commission are conducting
talks to define the parameters of the process. Russian Premier Dmitry
Medvedev has recently stated that Yerevan joining the CU is complicated
because Armenia has no common border with the countries of the union.
The coordinator of the working group of the Center for the Study
of Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Urals-Volga Region under the
Oriental Sciences Institute of the RAS, Alexander Skakov, and the
head of the Finance and Economics course of the Institute of Modern
Development, Nikita Maslennikov, told Vestnik Kavkaza about their
views on the prospects of Armenia joining the CU.
Vestnik Kavkaza: How long will the process of association take place?
Will the union withstand the Armenian economy, as Russia is discussing
reduction of the budget today?
Alexander Skakov: It is a serious question. I think Russia will
withstand it, because Armenia is a very small country, the population
is not big. Integration ties between Russia and Armenia are quite
strong, it won't be a serious challenge for the Russian budget. As for
how long it will take, the question is also interesting and difficult.
The CU is not a developed organization, it is just trying to form
itself. And there are serious problems. Today there are problems
between Russia and Belarus. Such problems can occur further and there
is no guarantee they would be overcome soon. So I think the point is
not in Armenia, but in the development of the situation in the CU in
general. Whether it can pass through these problems and turn into a
real integration entity.
Vestnik Kavkaza: What are chances of the CU becoming a serious
organization?
Alexander Skakov: I think it depends on the situation in Russia,
first of all. If Russia's economy doesn't balance between recession
and stagnation, the chances for the CU increase. If the situation in
the Russian economy worsens, it will influence the CU's chances very
negatively. The situations in the economies of Kazakhstan and Belarus
are much less important. In Belarus the economic situation is tense,
we know it well. In Kazakhstan it is better, but a lot depends on the
raw character of Kazakhstan's economy, as this negatively influences
its prospects. There are many questions and unclear places.
Vestnik Kavkaza: How will Armenia joining the CU influence the union?
Nikita Maslennikov: Of course, it will improve the CU, make its
construction more stable. Armenia is not the only candidate, and
after the decision made in the republic it is most probable that
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will do the same. Then we can assume that
by 2015-2016 the union will include six states. This means a more
receptive market, not only the trade market, but also the capital
market and labour market. So, the construction of the Customs Union,
and later the Eurasian Economic Space, becomes more and more stable
and gets more chances for successful development.
At the same time, there should be documents, accession rules, necessary
procedures by mid-2014. It will mean real accession of Armenia to the
CU. I think the step is positive both for the Union itself and the
Republic of Armenia. We should take new deep steps in the sphere of
integration. I think the presence of Armenia in the CU, with their
economic potential, will speed up processes which are underdeveloped.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/articles/politics/45061.html
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Sept 13 2013
13 September 2013 - 11:52am
By Vestnik Kavkaza
After the statement by President of Armenia Serge Sargsyan that his
country intends to join the Customs Union, representatives of the
Russian government and the Eurasian Economic Commission are conducting
talks to define the parameters of the process. Russian Premier Dmitry
Medvedev has recently stated that Yerevan joining the CU is complicated
because Armenia has no common border with the countries of the union.
The coordinator of the working group of the Center for the Study
of Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Urals-Volga Region under the
Oriental Sciences Institute of the RAS, Alexander Skakov, and the
head of the Finance and Economics course of the Institute of Modern
Development, Nikita Maslennikov, told Vestnik Kavkaza about their
views on the prospects of Armenia joining the CU.
Vestnik Kavkaza: How long will the process of association take place?
Will the union withstand the Armenian economy, as Russia is discussing
reduction of the budget today?
Alexander Skakov: It is a serious question. I think Russia will
withstand it, because Armenia is a very small country, the population
is not big. Integration ties between Russia and Armenia are quite
strong, it won't be a serious challenge for the Russian budget. As for
how long it will take, the question is also interesting and difficult.
The CU is not a developed organization, it is just trying to form
itself. And there are serious problems. Today there are problems
between Russia and Belarus. Such problems can occur further and there
is no guarantee they would be overcome soon. So I think the point is
not in Armenia, but in the development of the situation in the CU in
general. Whether it can pass through these problems and turn into a
real integration entity.
Vestnik Kavkaza: What are chances of the CU becoming a serious
organization?
Alexander Skakov: I think it depends on the situation in Russia,
first of all. If Russia's economy doesn't balance between recession
and stagnation, the chances for the CU increase. If the situation in
the Russian economy worsens, it will influence the CU's chances very
negatively. The situations in the economies of Kazakhstan and Belarus
are much less important. In Belarus the economic situation is tense,
we know it well. In Kazakhstan it is better, but a lot depends on the
raw character of Kazakhstan's economy, as this negatively influences
its prospects. There are many questions and unclear places.
Vestnik Kavkaza: How will Armenia joining the CU influence the union?
Nikita Maslennikov: Of course, it will improve the CU, make its
construction more stable. Armenia is not the only candidate, and
after the decision made in the republic it is most probable that
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will do the same. Then we can assume that
by 2015-2016 the union will include six states. This means a more
receptive market, not only the trade market, but also the capital
market and labour market. So, the construction of the Customs Union,
and later the Eurasian Economic Space, becomes more and more stable
and gets more chances for successful development.
At the same time, there should be documents, accession rules, necessary
procedures by mid-2014. It will mean real accession of Armenia to the
CU. I think the step is positive both for the Union itself and the
Republic of Armenia. We should take new deep steps in the sphere of
integration. I think the presence of Armenia in the CU, with their
economic potential, will speed up processes which are underdeveloped.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/articles/politics/45061.html
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress