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Turan Information Agency, Azerbaijan
January 11, 2014 Saturday
Stratfor: Russia will strengthen in the Caucasus
According to the American analytical center Stratfor, in 2014 Russia
will seek to retain the old and gain new positions in the world. At
the same time , it will retain flexible foreign policy and the ability
to compromise.
Moscow will become a mediator in resolving complex issues and improve
the position in the Middle East, relations with China and Japan.
The Kremlin can prevent rapprochement of Georgia and Moldova with the
EU, to maintain and strengthen influence in Azerbaijan and Armenia,
and will have a significant impact on the presidential elections in
Ukraine in 2015, and the project of the Eurasian Partnership to will
strengthen and expand due to Central Asian countries. The European
Union will not interfere in Russia.
However , a well-known political CIA analyst Paul Goble said in his
interview with "Voice of America " that he skeptically accepts the
forecasts by Stratfor, which exaggerates the influence of Russia in
the world.
"As a result, in their analyzes Moscow looks stronger than it is in
reality , and the West looks weaker. I do not think that Russia will
be more successful in the "near abroad" this year than it was ever
before," said Goble .
At the same time there are no less serious challenges in Russia: the
differences within the Kremlin , economic instability and growing
authoritarianism of Putin will serve a poor tool for sustainable
stability. The concentration of power in the hands of one leader will
play against Russia in the long term.
"The tools used by Putin to revive the Russian state have worn out.
Unhealthy economy will contribute to social unrest , while state
mechanisms traditionally used to control this disorder, are losing
influence. Putin will be able to cope with the growing instability in
the Kremlin and on the streets , but the process he will make the
state more dependent on itself," reads the analysis by Stratfor.
"Stratfor Forecast ignores several important components of the growing
domestic crisis in Russia, including - the escalation of regional
unrest, a wave of ethnic revival , religious polarization of society
and the growth of separatist sentiment. While the North Caucasus
remains a powder keg in Russia, conflict sprawled across Russian
Federation - from Kaliningrad and the Middle Volga region to Siberia
and the Far East," said Bugayski in his interview with "Voice of
America."
Russia will try to consolidate the gains achieved in the past year in
the former Soviet Union. This year will be unstable for Ukraine with
variable activity of political protests. But Kiev will remain under
economic and political influence of Russia until the presidential
elections scheduled for the beginning of 2015. West will support the
opposition leaders, such as Vitali Klitschko , but Russia will not be
able to hold a dominant influence in Ukraine.
Moldova and Georgia will be the key points of confrontation between
Russia and the West. These countries can expect the same political and
economic pressures faced by Ukraine with Russia, which will do its
utmost to prevent their further rapprochement with the European Union,
believe experts s of Stratfor.
Russia is too busy with Ukraine to take a tough stance on Georgia and
Moldova , objected the President of the Jamestown Foundation, Glen
Howard. According to him, the attempts of Vladimir Putin to keep
influence in post-Soviet states threaten the security of its own
position in the Kremlin.
" The cry of Navalni" `stop feeding the Caucasus' is replaced now by
another call "stop to feed Ukraine," says Howard. If the Russians wake
up and feel that their country buys Ukraine, as well as Germany bought
Greece, Putin may have serious problems at home, especially in an
economic downturn in Russia."
Howard is convinced, that support of Georgia's joining the European
Union is much more powerful than in Ukraine, and even if "Vladimir
Putin attempts to use the same pressure as in Ukraine , his efforts
will fail."
Russia will maintain a strong position in all three Caucasian states
this year , although the US- Iranian talks open doors for gradually
activation of Iran and Turkey in the region. Iran will seek to
increase the social and political influence in Azerbaijan, while
Turkey will try to mediate in negotiations between Armenia and
Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh in an attempt to restore relations
with Armenia. Nevertheless, both Turkey and Iran should decide too
serious problem in other areas this year to make significant progress
in the Caucasus , which will allow Russia to maintain a dominant role
in the region. -02D-
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
January 11, 2014 Saturday
Stratfor: Russia will strengthen in the Caucasus
According to the American analytical center Stratfor, in 2014 Russia
will seek to retain the old and gain new positions in the world. At
the same time , it will retain flexible foreign policy and the ability
to compromise.
Moscow will become a mediator in resolving complex issues and improve
the position in the Middle East, relations with China and Japan.
The Kremlin can prevent rapprochement of Georgia and Moldova with the
EU, to maintain and strengthen influence in Azerbaijan and Armenia,
and will have a significant impact on the presidential elections in
Ukraine in 2015, and the project of the Eurasian Partnership to will
strengthen and expand due to Central Asian countries. The European
Union will not interfere in Russia.
However , a well-known political CIA analyst Paul Goble said in his
interview with "Voice of America " that he skeptically accepts the
forecasts by Stratfor, which exaggerates the influence of Russia in
the world.
"As a result, in their analyzes Moscow looks stronger than it is in
reality , and the West looks weaker. I do not think that Russia will
be more successful in the "near abroad" this year than it was ever
before," said Goble .
At the same time there are no less serious challenges in Russia: the
differences within the Kremlin , economic instability and growing
authoritarianism of Putin will serve a poor tool for sustainable
stability. The concentration of power in the hands of one leader will
play against Russia in the long term.
"The tools used by Putin to revive the Russian state have worn out.
Unhealthy economy will contribute to social unrest , while state
mechanisms traditionally used to control this disorder, are losing
influence. Putin will be able to cope with the growing instability in
the Kremlin and on the streets , but the process he will make the
state more dependent on itself," reads the analysis by Stratfor.
"Stratfor Forecast ignores several important components of the growing
domestic crisis in Russia, including - the escalation of regional
unrest, a wave of ethnic revival , religious polarization of society
and the growth of separatist sentiment. While the North Caucasus
remains a powder keg in Russia, conflict sprawled across Russian
Federation - from Kaliningrad and the Middle Volga region to Siberia
and the Far East," said Bugayski in his interview with "Voice of
America."
Russia will try to consolidate the gains achieved in the past year in
the former Soviet Union. This year will be unstable for Ukraine with
variable activity of political protests. But Kiev will remain under
economic and political influence of Russia until the presidential
elections scheduled for the beginning of 2015. West will support the
opposition leaders, such as Vitali Klitschko , but Russia will not be
able to hold a dominant influence in Ukraine.
Moldova and Georgia will be the key points of confrontation between
Russia and the West. These countries can expect the same political and
economic pressures faced by Ukraine with Russia, which will do its
utmost to prevent their further rapprochement with the European Union,
believe experts s of Stratfor.
Russia is too busy with Ukraine to take a tough stance on Georgia and
Moldova , objected the President of the Jamestown Foundation, Glen
Howard. According to him, the attempts of Vladimir Putin to keep
influence in post-Soviet states threaten the security of its own
position in the Kremlin.
" The cry of Navalni" `stop feeding the Caucasus' is replaced now by
another call "stop to feed Ukraine," says Howard. If the Russians wake
up and feel that their country buys Ukraine, as well as Germany bought
Greece, Putin may have serious problems at home, especially in an
economic downturn in Russia."
Howard is convinced, that support of Georgia's joining the European
Union is much more powerful than in Ukraine, and even if "Vladimir
Putin attempts to use the same pressure as in Ukraine , his efforts
will fail."
Russia will maintain a strong position in all three Caucasian states
this year , although the US- Iranian talks open doors for gradually
activation of Iran and Turkey in the region. Iran will seek to
increase the social and political influence in Azerbaijan, while
Turkey will try to mediate in negotiations between Armenia and
Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh in an attempt to restore relations
with Armenia. Nevertheless, both Turkey and Iran should decide too
serious problem in other areas this year to make significant progress
in the Caucasus , which will allow Russia to maintain a dominant role
in the region. -02D-
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress