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IRAN COMPLAINED OF ARMENIA'S CHOICE
Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
Comments - 19 July 2014, 12:31
Iran does not know what the Eurasian Union is and as soon as we
get thoroughly acquainted with this structure, we will be able to
tell whether anything favorable for Iran will be found there. The
Iranian ambassador to Armenia stated this in Yerevan, on July 18,
which means that Ambassador Reisi thinks Iran will not benefit from
Armenia's membership to the Eurasian Union.
If Mohammad Reisi says they will understand whether it is useful to
Iran or not after learning the details, it means that now Iran does
not see any use. In other words, the membership of Armenia to the
Eurasian Economic Union is not useful to Iran.
At the same time, Tehran might be hinting that Armenia does not
share with Iran details of membership to the Eurasian Economic Union
sufficiently. Here one can understand Iran's dissatisfaction but
Tehran needs to understand Yerevan. Yerevan does not know enough
about membership to share with Iran.
Prime Minister Hovik Abrahamyan announces that Armenia will join the
Eurasian Economic Union end of October. When he is asked why in that
case Serzh Sargsyan asked for 15 days, Hovik Abrahamyan says it will
be effective from 2015. In other words, Hovik Abrahamyan does not
remember or maybe did not know that on May 29 Serzh Sargsyan asked
the three founding members to give time to overcome technical issues
relating to the membership of Armenia. However, he was given one month
then, and one month later it became known that Armenia would join no
sooner than in October. It is not known what will happen in October.
Hence, official Tehran need not expect much from Yerevan, they say
what they know, and if they say nothing, it means they know nothing.
And if to be more serious, Iran's dissatisfaction with Armenia's
choice was obvious last year when Mohammad Reisi announced that they
can sell gas to Armenia more cheaply than Russia. In other words,
Iran was wondering why Armenia would undergo gas blackmail and join
the Customs Union. Iran expressed its readiness to help Armenia cope
with blackmail.
Armenia was quiet, however. The reason was not the security-related
blackmail against Armenia. Iran is ready to help with this as well.
Tehran's statement that it may act as a mediator in case the sides
wish is a commitment to guarantee security and stability.
In other words, if the sides wish, Iran can ensure continuity of the
process of settlement and pull up of the war. This is a transparent
hint that Iran will help Armenia cope with the Russian blackmail to
resume war in Artsakh.
However, Armenia is again quiet.
The problem for Iran is not only the customs. The membership of
Armenia to the Eurasian Economic union means the Armenian-Iranian
border becomes a Russian-Iranian border in its worse expression. If
in terms of the Caucasian policy Tehran has to deal with Armenia,
or maximum Russia, after that Tehran will have to cope with Belarus
and Kazakhstan. In other words, in the result of the decision of the
Armenian government both countries get a "free" chance to dictate a
price to Iran in terms of this country's Caucasian policy.
If after September 3 Iran expressed its dissatisfaction indirectly,
now it is expressing it bluntly.
- See more at:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32751#sthash.dfM9GV2F.dpuf
Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
Comments - 19 July 2014, 12:31
Iran does not know what the Eurasian Union is and as soon as we
get thoroughly acquainted with this structure, we will be able to
tell whether anything favorable for Iran will be found there. The
Iranian ambassador to Armenia stated this in Yerevan, on July 18,
which means that Ambassador Reisi thinks Iran will not benefit from
Armenia's membership to the Eurasian Union.
If Mohammad Reisi says they will understand whether it is useful to
Iran or not after learning the details, it means that now Iran does
not see any use. In other words, the membership of Armenia to the
Eurasian Economic Union is not useful to Iran.
At the same time, Tehran might be hinting that Armenia does not
share with Iran details of membership to the Eurasian Economic Union
sufficiently. Here one can understand Iran's dissatisfaction but
Tehran needs to understand Yerevan. Yerevan does not know enough
about membership to share with Iran.
Prime Minister Hovik Abrahamyan announces that Armenia will join the
Eurasian Economic Union end of October. When he is asked why in that
case Serzh Sargsyan asked for 15 days, Hovik Abrahamyan says it will
be effective from 2015. In other words, Hovik Abrahamyan does not
remember or maybe did not know that on May 29 Serzh Sargsyan asked
the three founding members to give time to overcome technical issues
relating to the membership of Armenia. However, he was given one month
then, and one month later it became known that Armenia would join no
sooner than in October. It is not known what will happen in October.
Hence, official Tehran need not expect much from Yerevan, they say
what they know, and if they say nothing, it means they know nothing.
And if to be more serious, Iran's dissatisfaction with Armenia's
choice was obvious last year when Mohammad Reisi announced that they
can sell gas to Armenia more cheaply than Russia. In other words,
Iran was wondering why Armenia would undergo gas blackmail and join
the Customs Union. Iran expressed its readiness to help Armenia cope
with blackmail.
Armenia was quiet, however. The reason was not the security-related
blackmail against Armenia. Iran is ready to help with this as well.
Tehran's statement that it may act as a mediator in case the sides
wish is a commitment to guarantee security and stability.
In other words, if the sides wish, Iran can ensure continuity of the
process of settlement and pull up of the war. This is a transparent
hint that Iran will help Armenia cope with the Russian blackmail to
resume war in Artsakh.
However, Armenia is again quiet.
The problem for Iran is not only the customs. The membership of
Armenia to the Eurasian Economic union means the Armenian-Iranian
border becomes a Russian-Iranian border in its worse expression. If
in terms of the Caucasian policy Tehran has to deal with Armenia,
or maximum Russia, after that Tehran will have to cope with Belarus
and Kazakhstan. In other words, in the result of the decision of the
Armenian government both countries get a "free" chance to dictate a
price to Iran in terms of this country's Caucasian policy.
If after September 3 Iran expressed its dissatisfaction indirectly,
now it is expressing it bluntly.
- See more at:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32751#sthash.dfM9GV2F.dpuf