HEYDAR JAMAL: BY HIS LONDON SPEECH ARMENIAN PRESIDENT ANNOUNCED HIS CONSENT TO WITHDRAW FROM AZERBAIJAN'S OCCUPIED LANDS
A. Hasanov

Today
http://www.today.az/news/politics/6 1611.html
Feb 15 2010
Azerbaijan

Day.Az interview with Russia's Islamic Committee Chairman, renowned
political expert Heydar Jamal.

How would you comment on outcome of Armenian President Serzg Sargsyan's
recent visit to United Kingdom and statements he made there?

President Sargsyan's visit to London and statements he voiced at
the Chatham House suggest that he has rushed about and has no clear
plan of action. Indeed, as shown by analysis of the realities,
the leading European powers are interested in the Turkish-Armenian
rapprochement to some extent while the U.S. actually do not want it
because the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement would, in turn, lead to
Iranian-Turkish rapprochement which does not suit Washington.

On the other hand, the United States is interested in changing the
whole situation in the South Caucasus region and it is not satisfied
with Armenia current's position. Because it contradicts U.S. plans
to deploy NATO bases in the South Caucasus. To realize its plans,
the U.S. needs to blow up the situation, to instigate direct military
confrontation between Azerbaijan and Armenia which would give pretext
to the international community, in fact the United States and NATO,
to intervene in this confrontation. Of course, Armenian President
Serzh Sargsyan understands this.

He realizes that his actions do not suit the U.S. It is for this
reason that there is serious opposition to Serzh Sargsyan both within
Armenia and the Armenian diaspora over which the president of this
country is very concerned.

In other words, you believe that the Armenian opposition is influential
enough to displace Serzh Sargsyan from the presidential post?

As far as I know, the political processes in Armenia come in waves
in terms of aggression. But they all have a single goal - to force
Serzh Sargsyan to step down. The Armenian opposition has potential
to achieve its objective.

The opposition split at the moment. But once there is a leader who
will be able to unite the opposition, it could force Sargsyan to seek
dialogue with the opposition, hoping to agree with it. The Armenian
President understands this.

Therefore, the Armenian President's London speech can be described
as statement by a confused person. In fact, in London Serzh Sargsyan
announced his consent to withdraw from the occupied Azerbaijani
lands in response to West's guarantee to help him to preserve his
presidency. It was the cry of SOS by the Armenian President.

Given all these statements made, what are prospects for resolving
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

Let's start with the fact that the Armenian-Azerbaijani
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will still have to be solved by force.

Another question is when and with whose help. If Azerbaijan remains
in isolation, it mean that resumed of military confrontation with
Armenia will lead to the emergence of NATO forces in the region.

This will only turn entire South Caucasus into one big frontline zone
against Iran which runs counter to interests of Azerbaijan. At the
same time, Azerbaijan could easily choose use of force to recover
its Armenian-occupied territories later at different, more favorable
geopolitical situation for it to be preceded by a great diplomatic
work.