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IRAN PLAYS THE MEDIATOR
By Kaveh L Afrasiabi
Asia Times Online
Sep 20, 2008
Hong Kong
Contradicting the United States' negative image of Iran as a rogue
state threatening its neighbors, its foreign policy machinery is
churning out proactive initiatives aimed at de-escalating tensions
in the region, with particular focus on the Caucuses and Central Asia.
Tehran's role as a mediator is taking shape as President Mahmud
Ahmadinejad prepares for his visit to New York to attend next week's
annual United Nations gathering. But a hostile reception is guaranteed
there as demonstrations planned against him will be bolstered by the
presence of Republican vice presidential hopeful Senator Sarah Palin.
Palin should be aware of the importance of courting Iran at this
critical hour, rather than strengthening the caricature of Iran
painted by simplistic anti-Tehran voices in the US. The nation's recent
diplomatic interventions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and Russia
and Georgia, are an enlightening indication of Iran's capacity to act
as a "main pillar of regional stability", to paraphrase Ahmadinejad
in his latest interview.
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki announced during his
visit to Tbilisi, Georgia, on September 17 that Iran is prepared to
assist with "finding new ideas that can help the region exit from
the present [Georgia-Russia] crises". In his meeting with Mottaki,
Georgia's embattled President Mikheil Saakashvili also admitted that
Iran had a "big place in the region".
Mottaki hinted at Iran's readiness to mediate between Tbilisi and
Moscow, but added, "The absence of a declared position means that
decisions on this matter have not been made yet."
In addition to its physical proximity and historical ties, Georgia
is also important for Iran because of the planned north-south energy
and transport corridor which will traverse the Caucasus. Iran and
Georgia are exploring ways to improve bilateral commercial and energy
relations. With a nod from Moscow, as well as from the European Union,
Iran could play a catalytic role in mediating the explosive conflict.
But to play this role optimally, Iran must enhance its security
dialogue with Europe - which is why Mottaki also visited Germany as
part of his whirlwind diplomatic efforts to tackle the crisis - and
break some ice with the US, as Washington may still seek to block
Iran's efforts if it misperceives them as an adjunct to Russia's
diplomacy.
Iran is keen to harvest any windfall from the new US-Russia tensions,
as already seen in Moscow's impending sale of a new anti-aircraft
system to Tehran, but such a misperception about Iran by the US is not
helpful. It would be folly to ignore Iran's concerns about Russia's
ambitions, which Tehran University political scientist Elaheh Koolaye
described as an effort to "restore hegemony".
Most Iranian political analysts do not anticipate any new shift
in Iran-Russia relations, and if anything Mottaki's meeting with
Saakashvili - declared a "political corpse" by Russian President Dmitry
Medvedev - indicates that Iran is not intent on blindly following
Moscow's script, particularly if Moscow continues with its anti-Iran
measures at the UN.
>From Tehran's vantage point, ruling Russian nationalists are capable
in the long run of mischief even nearer to Iran's borders, which is
why Iran is presently committed to a dual containment strategy with
respect to the US and Russia. However, the United States' escalating
pressure on Iran may soon translate into it increasingly siding with
Russia to counter a common US threat.
But with Iran and the United States enjoying a pool of shared
interests in the Persian Gulf, it would be wrong to attribute Iran a
"Cold War lens", when Iran operates as a regional power based on its
own independent calculations.
Iran has embarked on new and energetic efforts to mediate the
territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan and that was a
main message delivered in the Armenian capital Yerevan by the visiting
Mottaki before his trip to Georgia. Armenia's Foreign Minister Edward
Nalbandian was also told by Ahmadinejad during a previous visit
to Tehran that "there is no need for NATO [North Atlantic Treaty
Organization] for the resolution of regional problems".
Iran's new conflict-management momentum is partly due to its fear that
regional tensions could adversely affect its own national security
interests, and partly born by Tehran's determination to offset Turkey's
attempt to form a Caucasus alliance which would exclude Iran.
In his recent historic visit to Armenia, Turkish President Abdullah Gul
proposed a Caucasus alliance comprising Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan,
the US and Russia. But given the new Russia-Turkey tensions in the
Black Sea - which resulted in Russia's stunning move to ban Turkish
goods - any such talk of an "alliance" is viewed with suspicion
by Moscow and Tehran as an indirect bid by Washington to move the
geopolitical pieces against both Russia and Iran.
"For now it looks like a football match with the US and Turkey on one
side and Iran and Russia on the other, and that is why Moscow needs
Iran more than ever before and cannot risk taking any action that
would alienate Iran," a Tehran political analyst told the author. He
emphasized the need for Russia to show goodwill by finishing the
Bushehr nuclear power plant and giving Iran "some of the sophisticated
arms, such as tanks" that Moscow has refused until now.
But what about Moscow's own misgivings about Iran's peaceful nuclear
program, which have caused Moscow to back three rounds of UN sanctions
on Iran? The Tehran analyst dismisses those misgivings and points
out that Iran's Defense Minister Amir Mousavi has flatly denied new
allegations by the International Atomic Energy Agency that Iran has
attempted to redesign its Shahab-III missiles to carry a nuclear
payload.
According to Mousavi, Iran's missile program is for defensive purposes
and has no nuclear weapon components.
Such assurances by Tehran undoubtedly go a long way in addressing
Moscow's concerns, thus paving the way for Russian arms sales to
Iran. An important issue is how Washington will react to these
developments. In an interview with IRDiplomacy, Mousavi indicated
that a number of Arab states in the region "have entered the scene and
various efforts are underway ... to forge some diplomatic understanding
between Tehran and Washington".
Even in the US, in light of a recent letter to President George W
Bush signed by five former US secretaries of state urging the White
House to enter into direct negotiations with Iran, there is a great
deal of sentiment in favor of reaching a modus vivendi with the
Islamic republic.
Unfortunately, as reflected in Palin's ill-advised decision to speak
against Ahmadinejad at a Jewish rally in New York, the mood in the
US is dominated by pro-Israel forces, who are apt to geopolitical
reductionism and constant demonization of Iran for the sake of Israel's
narrow interests.
In his latest press conference, Ahmadinejad promised "some good news"
after returning from New York, and there are unconfirmed reports of
an Iran-"Iran Six" meeting on the sidelines of the UN gathering to
discuss the Iran nuclear standoff.
A first step by Washington to acknowledge Iran's role in regional
stability is still missing though, and one should not expect any
reference to it in Palin's speech at the planned anti-Ahmadinejad
rally.
Kaveh L Afrasiabi, PhD, is the author of After Khomeini: New Directions
in Iran's Foreign Policy (Westview Press) and co-author of "Negotiating
Iran's Nuclear Populism", Brown Journal of World Affairs, Volume XII,
Issue 2, Summer 2005, with Mustafa Kibaroglu. He also wrote "Keeping
Iran's nuclear potential latent", Harvard International Review, and is
author of Iran's Nuclear Program: Debating Facts Versus Fiction. For
his Wikipedia entry, click here.
(Copyright 2008 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved
By Kaveh L Afrasiabi
Asia Times Online
Sep 20, 2008
Hong Kong
Contradicting the United States' negative image of Iran as a rogue
state threatening its neighbors, its foreign policy machinery is
churning out proactive initiatives aimed at de-escalating tensions
in the region, with particular focus on the Caucuses and Central Asia.
Tehran's role as a mediator is taking shape as President Mahmud
Ahmadinejad prepares for his visit to New York to attend next week's
annual United Nations gathering. But a hostile reception is guaranteed
there as demonstrations planned against him will be bolstered by the
presence of Republican vice presidential hopeful Senator Sarah Palin.
Palin should be aware of the importance of courting Iran at this
critical hour, rather than strengthening the caricature of Iran
painted by simplistic anti-Tehran voices in the US. The nation's recent
diplomatic interventions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and Russia
and Georgia, are an enlightening indication of Iran's capacity to act
as a "main pillar of regional stability", to paraphrase Ahmadinejad
in his latest interview.
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki announced during his
visit to Tbilisi, Georgia, on September 17 that Iran is prepared to
assist with "finding new ideas that can help the region exit from
the present [Georgia-Russia] crises". In his meeting with Mottaki,
Georgia's embattled President Mikheil Saakashvili also admitted that
Iran had a "big place in the region".
Mottaki hinted at Iran's readiness to mediate between Tbilisi and
Moscow, but added, "The absence of a declared position means that
decisions on this matter have not been made yet."
In addition to its physical proximity and historical ties, Georgia
is also important for Iran because of the planned north-south energy
and transport corridor which will traverse the Caucasus. Iran and
Georgia are exploring ways to improve bilateral commercial and energy
relations. With a nod from Moscow, as well as from the European Union,
Iran could play a catalytic role in mediating the explosive conflict.
But to play this role optimally, Iran must enhance its security
dialogue with Europe - which is why Mottaki also visited Germany as
part of his whirlwind diplomatic efforts to tackle the crisis - and
break some ice with the US, as Washington may still seek to block
Iran's efforts if it misperceives them as an adjunct to Russia's
diplomacy.
Iran is keen to harvest any windfall from the new US-Russia tensions,
as already seen in Moscow's impending sale of a new anti-aircraft
system to Tehran, but such a misperception about Iran by the US is not
helpful. It would be folly to ignore Iran's concerns about Russia's
ambitions, which Tehran University political scientist Elaheh Koolaye
described as an effort to "restore hegemony".
Most Iranian political analysts do not anticipate any new shift
in Iran-Russia relations, and if anything Mottaki's meeting with
Saakashvili - declared a "political corpse" by Russian President Dmitry
Medvedev - indicates that Iran is not intent on blindly following
Moscow's script, particularly if Moscow continues with its anti-Iran
measures at the UN.
>From Tehran's vantage point, ruling Russian nationalists are capable
in the long run of mischief even nearer to Iran's borders, which is
why Iran is presently committed to a dual containment strategy with
respect to the US and Russia. However, the United States' escalating
pressure on Iran may soon translate into it increasingly siding with
Russia to counter a common US threat.
But with Iran and the United States enjoying a pool of shared
interests in the Persian Gulf, it would be wrong to attribute Iran a
"Cold War lens", when Iran operates as a regional power based on its
own independent calculations.
Iran has embarked on new and energetic efforts to mediate the
territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan and that was a
main message delivered in the Armenian capital Yerevan by the visiting
Mottaki before his trip to Georgia. Armenia's Foreign Minister Edward
Nalbandian was also told by Ahmadinejad during a previous visit
to Tehran that "there is no need for NATO [North Atlantic Treaty
Organization] for the resolution of regional problems".
Iran's new conflict-management momentum is partly due to its fear that
regional tensions could adversely affect its own national security
interests, and partly born by Tehran's determination to offset Turkey's
attempt to form a Caucasus alliance which would exclude Iran.
In his recent historic visit to Armenia, Turkish President Abdullah Gul
proposed a Caucasus alliance comprising Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan,
the US and Russia. But given the new Russia-Turkey tensions in the
Black Sea - which resulted in Russia's stunning move to ban Turkish
goods - any such talk of an "alliance" is viewed with suspicion
by Moscow and Tehran as an indirect bid by Washington to move the
geopolitical pieces against both Russia and Iran.
"For now it looks like a football match with the US and Turkey on one
side and Iran and Russia on the other, and that is why Moscow needs
Iran more than ever before and cannot risk taking any action that
would alienate Iran," a Tehran political analyst told the author. He
emphasized the need for Russia to show goodwill by finishing the
Bushehr nuclear power plant and giving Iran "some of the sophisticated
arms, such as tanks" that Moscow has refused until now.
But what about Moscow's own misgivings about Iran's peaceful nuclear
program, which have caused Moscow to back three rounds of UN sanctions
on Iran? The Tehran analyst dismisses those misgivings and points
out that Iran's Defense Minister Amir Mousavi has flatly denied new
allegations by the International Atomic Energy Agency that Iran has
attempted to redesign its Shahab-III missiles to carry a nuclear
payload.
According to Mousavi, Iran's missile program is for defensive purposes
and has no nuclear weapon components.
Such assurances by Tehran undoubtedly go a long way in addressing
Moscow's concerns, thus paving the way for Russian arms sales to
Iran. An important issue is how Washington will react to these
developments. In an interview with IRDiplomacy, Mousavi indicated
that a number of Arab states in the region "have entered the scene and
various efforts are underway ... to forge some diplomatic understanding
between Tehran and Washington".
Even in the US, in light of a recent letter to President George W
Bush signed by five former US secretaries of state urging the White
House to enter into direct negotiations with Iran, there is a great
deal of sentiment in favor of reaching a modus vivendi with the
Islamic republic.
Unfortunately, as reflected in Palin's ill-advised decision to speak
against Ahmadinejad at a Jewish rally in New York, the mood in the
US is dominated by pro-Israel forces, who are apt to geopolitical
reductionism and constant demonization of Iran for the sake of Israel's
narrow interests.
In his latest press conference, Ahmadinejad promised "some good news"
after returning from New York, and there are unconfirmed reports of
an Iran-"Iran Six" meeting on the sidelines of the UN gathering to
discuss the Iran nuclear standoff.
A first step by Washington to acknowledge Iran's role in regional
stability is still missing though, and one should not expect any
reference to it in Palin's speech at the planned anti-Ahmadinejad
rally.
Kaveh L Afrasiabi, PhD, is the author of After Khomeini: New Directions
in Iran's Foreign Policy (Westview Press) and co-author of "Negotiating
Iran's Nuclear Populism", Brown Journal of World Affairs, Volume XII,
Issue 2, Summer 2005, with Mustafa Kibaroglu. He also wrote "Keeping
Iran's nuclear potential latent", Harvard International Review, and is
author of Iran's Nuclear Program: Debating Facts Versus Fiction. For
his Wikipedia entry, click here.
(Copyright 2008 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved