Tweet
news.az, Azerbaijan
Feb 13 2010
US, Russia share interests in peaceful restoration of territory to Azerbaijan
Sat 13 February 2010 | 07:20 GMT Text size:
Theodore Hopf News.Az interviews Theodore Hopf, Associate Professor of
Political Science, The Ohio State University.
There are numerous factors that deteriorate Russia's relations with
the West. Do you consider the soonest "reloading" of ties possible and
what do the sides need to do to improve these relations?
US needs to reduce its expectations for the relationship. Russia is
likely to disappoint.
It seems that after war in Georgia in August 2008 US became less
active in resolving security problems in the South Caucasus. Is it
wrong opinion or US admitted that the major player in the region is
Russia?
Never thought US was much of a player in the South Caucasus to begin
with. Offloaded most of it to EU, Council of Europe and OSCE.
Is the South Caucasus a mostly region of cooperation between US and
Russia or still a zone of struggle for national interests?
I think on Nagorno-Karabakh, the US & Russia share interests in the
peaceful restoration of that territory to Azerbaijan....eventually.
Continued competition over Azerbaijani gas, and its export routes will
continue. Of course, the greatest strategic blow the US could deal to
Russia would be a rapprochement with Iran that would result in
US/Western energy companies investing in Iran, including building gas
pipelines from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, giving them,
and Kazakhstan, a non-Russian outlet for exports.
The GUAM regional alliance brings together Georgia, Ukraine,
Azerbaijan and Moldova, 4 republics which want to be integrated to
Europe. How would you assess current state of this organization?
It is dead.
The former USSR countries are linked with common economic and
democratic problems associated with the burden of the transitive
period. How much time will be spent for Azerbaijan to be able to
become a full member of the European family?
Does Azerbaijan want to join? Getting rid of the kleptocratic
authoritarian family dictatorship of Aliev would be necessary for a
start. No signs of that happening.
Do you share the opinion that ethnic conflicts in Europe, in
particular in the South Caucasus, are threats to Europe? What kind of
role can the EU play to support stability and peace in the South
Caucasus? And is the EU ready to compete with Russia for influence in
the post-Soviet area, in the South Caucasus in particular?
I don't see EU competing for influence, but certainly its good offices
are available for the outstanding issues in Nagorno Karabakh, Osetia
and Abkhazia.
Due to the relative passiveness of the West, Russia is almost the only
influential mediator in the Karabakh settlement. Do you think it may
settle this conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia alone or there is
a need for Europe's and US participation in the peacekeeping process?
I wrote of this above; the US is involved, but why stand in the way of
Russia going it alone if it can deliver Armenia's concessions?
Aliyah Fridman
News.Az
Feb 13 2010
US, Russia share interests in peaceful restoration of territory to Azerbaijan
Sat 13 February 2010 | 07:20 GMT Text size:
Theodore Hopf News.Az interviews Theodore Hopf, Associate Professor of
Political Science, The Ohio State University.
There are numerous factors that deteriorate Russia's relations with
the West. Do you consider the soonest "reloading" of ties possible and
what do the sides need to do to improve these relations?
US needs to reduce its expectations for the relationship. Russia is
likely to disappoint.
It seems that after war in Georgia in August 2008 US became less
active in resolving security problems in the South Caucasus. Is it
wrong opinion or US admitted that the major player in the region is
Russia?
Never thought US was much of a player in the South Caucasus to begin
with. Offloaded most of it to EU, Council of Europe and OSCE.
Is the South Caucasus a mostly region of cooperation between US and
Russia or still a zone of struggle for national interests?
I think on Nagorno-Karabakh, the US & Russia share interests in the
peaceful restoration of that territory to Azerbaijan....eventually.
Continued competition over Azerbaijani gas, and its export routes will
continue. Of course, the greatest strategic blow the US could deal to
Russia would be a rapprochement with Iran that would result in
US/Western energy companies investing in Iran, including building gas
pipelines from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, giving them,
and Kazakhstan, a non-Russian outlet for exports.
The GUAM regional alliance brings together Georgia, Ukraine,
Azerbaijan and Moldova, 4 republics which want to be integrated to
Europe. How would you assess current state of this organization?
It is dead.
The former USSR countries are linked with common economic and
democratic problems associated with the burden of the transitive
period. How much time will be spent for Azerbaijan to be able to
become a full member of the European family?
Does Azerbaijan want to join? Getting rid of the kleptocratic
authoritarian family dictatorship of Aliev would be necessary for a
start. No signs of that happening.
Do you share the opinion that ethnic conflicts in Europe, in
particular in the South Caucasus, are threats to Europe? What kind of
role can the EU play to support stability and peace in the South
Caucasus? And is the EU ready to compete with Russia for influence in
the post-Soviet area, in the South Caucasus in particular?
I don't see EU competing for influence, but certainly its good offices
are available for the outstanding issues in Nagorno Karabakh, Osetia
and Abkhazia.
Due to the relative passiveness of the West, Russia is almost the only
influential mediator in the Karabakh settlement. Do you think it may
settle this conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia alone or there is
a need for Europe's and US participation in the peacekeeping process?
I wrote of this above; the US is involved, but why stand in the way of
Russia going it alone if it can deliver Armenia's concessions?
Aliyah Fridman
News.Az