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ANKARA: What's On Armenian Front?

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  • ANKARA: What's On Armenian Front?

    WHAT'S ON ARMENIAN FRONT?

    Hurriyet
    April 7 2010
    Turkey

    Turkish politics and the society is predominantly occupied with the
    constitutional amendment drive of the ruling Justice and Development
    Party, or AKP, and the latest appeal to the president of the main
    opposition Republican People's Party, or CHP, to declare from now
    on he would favor referring to referendum three articles in the
    AKP's proposal - those regarding the high courts and the closure of
    political parties - separate from the remaining 24 "sugar coating"
    articles and the provisional articles. Yet, something is happening
    silently in Turkish-Armenian relations - in particular regarding the
    contentious protocols for improved relations between the two countries.

    A report from Yerevan early in the morning came as a complete surprise
    for many newsmen in Ankara. As important as it is, the report from
    Yerevan that the Armenian parliament would complete before the end
    of this week the approval process of the Turkish-Armenian protocols
    became a secondary development as the day progressed. It became clear
    that, not only a senior Turkish diplomat was in the Armenian capital
    with a special letter from Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to
    Armenian President Serge Sarkisian, but the two leaders would indeed
    be meeting in Washington on the sidelines of a nuclear security summit.

    Developments are indeed so striking that one cannot stop but ask
    what else might be in the pipeline? Perhaps also on the agenda is a
    meeting between the Turkish prime minister and the Armenian president
    with American President Barrack Obama playing the host. Anyhow, both
    the Turkish prime minister and the Armenian president are already
    scheduled to have separate meetings with the American president. Why
    not have a trilateral meeting since the Obama administration has been
    the main backstage catalyst of the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement
    for a long time?

    Such a trilateral meeting was not yet confirmed by any of the three
    countries. Probably, either such a meeting was not yet firmly arranged,
    or the three countries wanted to keep such an encounter secret for
    now. Because of the delay in Erdogan's making a decision to attend
    the nuclear security summit due to the government's protest of the
    House Armenian resolution, even the expected Erdogan-Obama meeting is
    not on the official agenda of the U.S. president. Yet, both Turkish
    and American officials appear confident that somehow the president
    and the prime minister will create an opportunity for get together
    during the summit.

    As for now, it is not yet public what tools U.S. diplomacy used
    in prodding either Armenia or Turkey. The Armenian administration
    decided to complete the parliamentary approval process of the
    protocols "without making any change in them" and drop its earlier
    demand that the protocols should first be approved by the Turkish
    Parliament. The Turkish administration all of a sudden sent Foreign
    Ministry Undersecretary Feridun Sinirlioglu to Yerevan as a special
    emissary of Erdogan to deliver a letter to Sarkisian. Yet, it
    was known for some time that the Obama administration wanted the
    two governments to stop dragging their feet, act on the protocols
    and take some concrete steps towards improving relations between
    themselves. At one point, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton even
    created uproar in the Armenian diaspora with a "slip of the tongue"
    that the history commission to be established within the framework
    of the protocols would soon be established.

    Normalization

    With Turkish Ambassador Namık Tan - withdrawn to protest the House
    of Representatives Foreign Relations Committee's approval of the
    "G" resolution - back in Washington and Erdogan making a U-turn from
    his earlier decision not to attend the April 12-13 nuclear security
    summit in the U.S. capital, it is clear Turkey has received "credible
    assurances" from the Obama administration of a more active resolution
    of the possible "G" resolution in Congress.

    Yet, obviously, with the April 24 anniversary of the so-called
    Armenian "genocide" approaching and pressure building on Obama from
    the Armenians to use the "G" word and Turkey warning of the serious
    consequences such a development might create in Turkish-American
    relations, the U.S. administration wants to achieve some progress on
    the protocols. Perhaps, the U.S. is after a move from Ankara regarding
    making a pledge to open the border with Armenia in the foreseeable
    future and a signal from Yerevan of its intention to withdraw from
    the occupied Azerbaijani territory - the reason of the border closure
    by Turkey - helping Turkey to act on the border issue.
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