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ALTERNATIVE VIEW ON IRAN
Igor Muradyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments25048.html
Published: 16:52:04 - 06/02/2012
A part of Armenian experts propose an alternative view at the
situation in Iran and connect it with the perspectives of development
of the society, politics and state. According to these experts, the
acting ruling elite of Iran is extremely secularized and the Islamic
principles in the policy of Iran are diluted. Iran cannot be called
a truly Islamic country. Sharia is present only in a couple of norms
of conduct and in legislation, though very formally.
The Iranian elite does not hide that it is working out a project
of transformation of the political regime and creation of a new
statehood. Sharia's norms will be preserved for long, perhaps,
forever. The idea is how sharia and the demand of modernization will
combine. Now nothing threatens Iran's ruling regime, its political
destiny depends on the success of economic and social reforms. During
his presidential tenure, Ahmadinejad failed to fulfill serious
principled reforms. But the society still has great hopes:
- Iran expected more decisive steps by the U.S. toward rapprochement
with the United States and it seemed that Obama's administration
would quickly enough take up steps to reproach Iran. But apparently,
the U.S. had some troubles inside the country and met resistance by
the Congress and the Jewish lobby. Besides, the U.S. sees relations
with Iran as a part of the Middle Eastern policy and determines these
relations with the problems of Iraq, Afghanistan, Caspian Basin and
Arab countries. In this regard, a stop in the rapprochement between
Iran and the U.S. is perhaps possible. But most likely, all of these
explanations may be secondary. Apparently, the U.S. has not developed
approaches and the concept of normalization of relations with Iran
so far. Maybe both sides don't understand all the difficulties to
overcome on the path to rapprochement. In essence, this is a new
situation for the United States, and it will take time to define
priorities in the normalization of relations. In Iran, there is also
strong opposition to the rapprochement with the United States. While
it is clear that the important subject of political bargaining will
be the issues of relations with China. So far, the position and
statements of the U.S. against Iran have been very contradictory;
-Foreign political possibilities of Iran depend much on the
developments in Iraq and Afghanistan. Currently, the political regimes
in both countries are hostile towards Iran. The elimination of these
regimes, and less likely, the normalization of relations with them will
strengthen Iran's positions, including in the Arab world and Central
Asia. Iran is in confronting relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan
and this confrontation may increase. So Armenia will need to keep
its important role for Iran.
- Great Britain has already determined with regards to Iran's issue.
The conservative government thinks it is necessary to support normal
relations with this country promoting reforms in Iran anyway. There
is a common idea that the U.S. and Britain lead a common policy in
relation with Iran. In reality, in terms of security issues, there
are ongoing consultations of relevant services in the U.S. and the
UK. But the UK tries to lead independent policy in relation with Iran
which would reflect its economic interests. UK cannot get distanced
from the general European position on Iran which supposes for the
strengthening of relations with this country. A break of relations
between the UK and Iran was accepted in London very critically. There
is no full agreement on this issue between the U.S. and UK, but these
countries have common strategical interests.
- There are no convincing signals that the U.S. is interested in the
catastrophic decline of defense capability and economic capacity of
Iran which may become extremely undesirable for the U.S. interests,
which builds its policy in this wide region on the basis of balance
between Turkey, Saudi Arabia (with satellites), Iran and Pakistan.
- At the present moment, serious contacts of different level are
underway between the U.S. and Iran in which private figures also take
part which will acquire a bigger significance in the foreseeable
future. The essence of the current disagreement is not in Iran's
nuclear program, but geopolitical intentions pretending to middle-term
perspective. Iran is trying to launch a dialogue with the U.S. at
parity level, while the U.S. is trying to oblige Iran on the most
important geopolitical issues.
Igor Muradyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments25048.html
Published: 16:52:04 - 06/02/2012
A part of Armenian experts propose an alternative view at the
situation in Iran and connect it with the perspectives of development
of the society, politics and state. According to these experts, the
acting ruling elite of Iran is extremely secularized and the Islamic
principles in the policy of Iran are diluted. Iran cannot be called
a truly Islamic country. Sharia is present only in a couple of norms
of conduct and in legislation, though very formally.
The Iranian elite does not hide that it is working out a project
of transformation of the political regime and creation of a new
statehood. Sharia's norms will be preserved for long, perhaps,
forever. The idea is how sharia and the demand of modernization will
combine. Now nothing threatens Iran's ruling regime, its political
destiny depends on the success of economic and social reforms. During
his presidential tenure, Ahmadinejad failed to fulfill serious
principled reforms. But the society still has great hopes:
- Iran expected more decisive steps by the U.S. toward rapprochement
with the United States and it seemed that Obama's administration
would quickly enough take up steps to reproach Iran. But apparently,
the U.S. had some troubles inside the country and met resistance by
the Congress and the Jewish lobby. Besides, the U.S. sees relations
with Iran as a part of the Middle Eastern policy and determines these
relations with the problems of Iraq, Afghanistan, Caspian Basin and
Arab countries. In this regard, a stop in the rapprochement between
Iran and the U.S. is perhaps possible. But most likely, all of these
explanations may be secondary. Apparently, the U.S. has not developed
approaches and the concept of normalization of relations with Iran
so far. Maybe both sides don't understand all the difficulties to
overcome on the path to rapprochement. In essence, this is a new
situation for the United States, and it will take time to define
priorities in the normalization of relations. In Iran, there is also
strong opposition to the rapprochement with the United States. While
it is clear that the important subject of political bargaining will
be the issues of relations with China. So far, the position and
statements of the U.S. against Iran have been very contradictory;
-Foreign political possibilities of Iran depend much on the
developments in Iraq and Afghanistan. Currently, the political regimes
in both countries are hostile towards Iran. The elimination of these
regimes, and less likely, the normalization of relations with them will
strengthen Iran's positions, including in the Arab world and Central
Asia. Iran is in confronting relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan
and this confrontation may increase. So Armenia will need to keep
its important role for Iran.
- Great Britain has already determined with regards to Iran's issue.
The conservative government thinks it is necessary to support normal
relations with this country promoting reforms in Iran anyway. There
is a common idea that the U.S. and Britain lead a common policy in
relation with Iran. In reality, in terms of security issues, there
are ongoing consultations of relevant services in the U.S. and the
UK. But the UK tries to lead independent policy in relation with Iran
which would reflect its economic interests. UK cannot get distanced
from the general European position on Iran which supposes for the
strengthening of relations with this country. A break of relations
between the UK and Iran was accepted in London very critically. There
is no full agreement on this issue between the U.S. and UK, but these
countries have common strategical interests.
- There are no convincing signals that the U.S. is interested in the
catastrophic decline of defense capability and economic capacity of
Iran which may become extremely undesirable for the U.S. interests,
which builds its policy in this wide region on the basis of balance
between Turkey, Saudi Arabia (with satellites), Iran and Pakistan.
- At the present moment, serious contacts of different level are
underway between the U.S. and Iran in which private figures also take
part which will acquire a bigger significance in the foreseeable
future. The essence of the current disagreement is not in Iran's
nuclear program, but geopolitical intentions pretending to middle-term
perspective. Iran is trying to launch a dialogue with the U.S. at
parity level, while the U.S. is trying to oblige Iran on the most
important geopolitical issues.